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Updated: 2011 JUL 21, 22:13 UT
Event Rank : 51
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2011 Aug 15 UT, the 29 km diameter asteroid (1166) Sakuntala will occult a 10.5 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a north-to-south path across Australia passing near Mt Isa and Mt Gambier.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.1 mag to 13.5 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
135 43 31 - 3 0 52 9 40 38 56 137 -10 135 51 45 - 2 59 55 135 35 16 - 3 1 48 136 12 19 - 2 57 30 135 14 36 - 3 4 6
136 3 47 - 4 32 17 9 41 1 57 136 -11 136 12 1 - 4 31 19 135 55 32 - 4 33 15 136 32 35 - 4 28 50 135 34 52 - 4 35 36
136 23 0 - 6 2 29 9 41 23 59 135 -12 136 31 15 - 6 1 29 136 14 45 - 6 3 28 136 51 49 - 5 58 58 135 54 5 - 6 5 52
136 41 16 - 7 31 35 9 41 45 60 133 -12 136 49 32 - 7 30 34 136 33 0 - 7 32 35 137 10 8 - 7 28 0 136 12 18 - 7 35 2
136 58 40 - 8 59 41 9 42 8 61 132 -13 137 6 57 - 8 58 40 136 50 23 - 9 0 42 137 27 35 - 8 56 2 136 29 39 - 9 3 13
137 15 16 -10 26 54 9 42 30 62 130 -14 137 23 34 -10 25 51 137 6 58 -10 27 56 137 44 16 -10 23 11 136 46 10 -10 30 29
137 31 8 -11 53 17 9 42 52 64 128 -14 137 39 28 -11 52 13 137 22 48 -11 54 20 138 0 14 -11 49 31 137 1 55 -11 56 56
137 46 19 -13 18 56 9 43 14 65 126 -15 137 54 41 -13 17 51 137 37 57 -13 20 1 138 15 33 -13 15 6 137 16 59 -13 22 39
138 0 53 -14 43 56 9 43 37 66 124 -16 138 9 17 -14 42 50 137 52 28 -14 45 1 138 30 16 -14 40 3 137 31 23 -14 47 42
138 14 51 -16 8 20 9 43 59 67 122 -16 138 23 19 -16 7 13 138 6 24 -16 9 27 138 44 24 -16 4 23 137 45 12 -16 12 10
138 28 18 -17 32 13 9 44 21 68 119 -17 138 36 48 -17 31 5 138 19 47 -17 33 20 138 58 2 -17 28 13 137 58 27 -17 36 6
138 41 14 -18 55 38 9 44 44 69 116 -17 138 49 48 -18 54 29 138 32 39 -18 56 46 139 11 11 -18 51 34 138 11 10 -18 59 34
138 53 42 -20 18 39 9 45 6 69 113 -18 139 2 20 -20 17 29 138 45 3 -20 19 48 139 23 53 -20 14 32 138 23 24 -20 22 39
139 5 44 -21 41 19 9 45 28 70 110 -18 139 14 27 -21 40 8 138 57 1 -21 42 29 139 36 10 -21 37 8 138 35 11 -21 45 22
139 17 22 -23 3 41 9 45 51 71 107 -19 139 26 9 -23 2 29 139 8 34 -23 4 52 139 48 5 -22 59 27 138 46 31 -23 7 48
139 28 36 -24 25 49 9 46 13 71 103 -19 139 37 29 -24 24 36 139 19 43 -24 27 1 139 59 38 -24 21 32 138 57 28 -24 29 59
139 39 29 -25 47 46 9 46 35 72 99 -19 139 48 27 -25 46 32 139 30 30 -25 48 59 140 10 50 -25 43 25 139 8 1 -25 52 0
139 50 2 -27 9 34 9 46 57 72 94 -20 139 59 6 -27 8 19 139 40 57 -27 10 48 140 21 45 -27 5 10 139 18 12 -27 13 51
140 0 16 -28 31 17 9 47 20 73 90 -20 140 9 27 -28 30 1 139 51 5 -28 32 32 140 32 21 -28 26 49 139 28 3 -28 35 38
140 10 12 -29 52 58 9 47 42 73 85 -21 140 19 30 -29 51 41 140 0 53 -29 54 14 140 42 42 -29 48 26 139 37 34 -29 57 22
140 19 51 -31 14 39 9 48 4 73 81 -21 140 29 17 -31 13 20 140 10 25 -31 15 56 140 52 48 -31 10 3 139 46 46 -31 19 7
140 29 15 -32 36 23 9 48 27 73 76 -21 140 38 48 -32 35 4 140 19 40 -32 37 41 141 2 40 -32 31 43 139 55 41 -32 40 55
140 38 23 -33 58 13 9 48 49 73 72 -22 140 48 6 -33 56 53 140 28 40 -33 59 33 141 12 19 -33 53 29 140 4 18 -34 2 49
140 47 17 -35 20 13 9 49 11 72 67 -22 140 57 9 -35 18 51 140 37 24 -35 21 34 141 21 46 -35 15 25 140 12 39 -35 24 53
140 55 57 -36 42 25 9 49 34 72 63 -22 141 6 0 -36 41 2 140 45 54 -36 43 47 141 31 2 -36 37 32 140 20 43 -36 47 9
141 4 25 -38 4 52 9 49 56 71 59 -22 141 14 38 -38 3 28 140 54 11 -38 6 16 141 40 8 -37 59 55 140 28 32 -38 9 41
141 12 40 -39 27 38 9 50 18 71 55 -22 141 23 5 -39 26 13 141 2 14 -39 29 3 141 49 4 -39 22 36 140 36 5 -39 32 31
141 20 43 -40 50 45 9 50 40 70 52 -23 141 31 21 -40 49 19 141 10 4 -40 52 11 141 57 52 -40 45 39 140 43 23 -40 55 43
141 28 35 -42 14 18 9 51 3 69 48 -23 141 39 26 -42 12 50 141 17 42 -42 15 45 142 6 31 -42 9 6 140 50 26 -42 19 20
141 36 15 -43 38 19 9 51 25 68 45 -23 141 47 22 -43 36 50 141 25 8 -43 39 48 142 15 4 -43 33 2 140 57 14 -43 43 27
141 43 45 -45 2 53 9 51 47 68 42 -23 141 55 7 -45 1 22 141 32 21 -45 4 23 142 23 30 -44 57 31 141 3 47 -45 8 6
141 51 3 -46 28 3 9 52 10 67 40 -23 142 2 44 -46 26 30 141 39 22 -46 29 35 142 31 49 -46 22 35 141 10 4 -46 33 21
141 58 11 -47 53 53 9 52 32 66 37 -23 142 10 11 -47 52 19 141 46 11 -47 55 27 142 40 4 -47 48 19 141 16 4 -47 59 17
142 5 8 -49 20 28 9 52 54 64 35 -23 142 17 28 -49 18 52 141 52 47 -49 22 4 142 48 13 -49 14 48 141 21 47 -49 25 58
142 11 54 -50 47 53 9 53 17 63 33 -23 142 24 37 -50 46 15 141 59 9 -50 49 31 142 56 19 -50 42 6 141 27 12 -50 53 30
Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs
Prediction of 2011 Jul 22.0
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