|
|
Updated: 2011 JUN 07, 23:23 UT
Event Rank : 82
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2011 Jun 24 UT, the 32 km diameter asteroid (1036) Ganymed will occult a 10.9 mag star in the constellation Cygnus for observers along a narrow path across western Australia from near Port Headland to directly over Perth.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.9 mag to 11.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
114 19 7 -38 0 0 18 40 15 12 7 -58 114 30 47 114 7 26 114 45 45 113 52 30
114 33 40 -37 0 0 18 40 16 13 7 -58 114 45 11 114 22 8 114 59 57 114 7 24
114 48 15 -36 0 0 18 40 18 14 7 -58 114 59 38 114 36 52 115 14 13 114 22 18
115 2 53 -35 0 0 18 40 19 15 6 -58 115 14 8 114 51 38 115 28 33 114 37 14
115 17 33 -34 0 0 18 40 21 16 6 -58 115 28 41 115 6 26 115 42 56 114 52 13
115 32 18 -33 0 0 18 40 23 17 6 -58 115 43 18 115 21 18 115 57 24 115 7 13
115 47 6 -32 0 0 18 40 25 18 6 -58 115 57 59 115 36 13 116 11 56 115 22 17
116 1 58 -31 0 0 18 40 28 19 6 -58 116 12 45 115 51 12 116 26 34 115 37 24
116 16 55 -30 0 0 18 40 30 20 6 -57 116 27 36 116 6 15 116 41 17 115 52 36
116 31 58 -29 0 0 18 40 33 21 5 -57 116 42 33 116 21 23 116 56 6 116 7 51
116 47 6 -28 0 0 18 40 35 22 5 -57 116 57 35 116 36 36 117 11 2 116 23 12
117 2 20 -27 0 0 18 40 38 23 5 -57 117 12 44 116 51 56 117 26 4 116 38 37
117 17 40 -26 0 0 18 40 41 24 5 -56 117 27 59 117 7 21 117 41 13 116 54 9
117 33 7 -25 0 0 18 40 44 25 5 -56 117 43 22 117 22 53 117 56 30 117 9 46
117 48 42 -24 0 0 18 40 47 27 4 -56 117 58 52 117 38 31 118 11 54 117 25 31
118 4 24 -23 0 0 18 40 50 28 4 -55 118 14 31 117 54 18 118 27 28 117 41 22
118 20 15 -22 0 0 18 40 53 29 4 -55 118 30 17 118 10 12 118 43 10 117 57 22
118 36 14 -21 0 0 18 40 57 30 4 -55 118 46 13 118 26 15 118 59 1 118 13 29
118 52 23 -20 0 0 18 41 0 31 4 -54 119 2 19 118 42 27 119 15 2 118 29 45
119 8 41 -19 0 0 18 41 4 32 3 -54 119 18 34 118 58 48 119 31 13 118 46 10
119 25 9 -18 0 0 18 41 7 33 3 -53 119 35 0 119 15 19 119 47 36 119 2 45
119 41 49 -17 0 0 18 41 11 34 3 -53 119 51 36 119 32 1 120 4 9 119 19 30
Uncertainty in time = +/- 1 secs
Prediction of 2011 Jun 8.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]