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Updated: 2011 MAY 18, 01:51 UT
Event Rank : 78
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2011 Jun 19 UT, the 99 km diameter asteroid (914) Palisana will occult a 13.0 mag star in the constellation Hydra for observers along a path across eastern Australia, from Kangaroo Island across eastern South Australia and Queensland to Cooktown, and across New Guinea near Lae.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.4 mag to 12.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 8.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
147 16 55 - 3 0 0 9 19 13 62 146 -17 147 45 38 146 48 7 148 26 15 146 7 4
147 7 34 - 4 0 0 9 19 4 63 144 -17 147 36 21 146 38 42 148 17 3 145 57 33
146 57 48 - 5 0 0 9 18 54 63 143 -17 147 26 39 146 28 51 148 7 28 145 47 34
146 47 35 - 6 0 0 9 18 45 64 141 -17 147 16 31 146 18 32 147 57 28 145 37 8
146 36 54 - 7 0 0 9 18 36 65 140 -17 147 5 57 146 7 46 147 47 2 145 26 13
146 25 46 - 8 0 0 9 18 27 65 138 -18 146 54 55 145 56 31 147 36 9 145 14 48
146 14 9 - 9 0 0 9 18 17 66 136 -18 146 43 26 145 44 46 147 24 50 145 2 52
146 2 2 -10 0 0 9 18 8 66 134 -18 146 31 27 145 32 31 147 13 2 144 50 25
145 49 24 -11 0 0 9 17 58 67 132 -18 146 18 58 145 19 44 147 0 46 144 37 25
145 36 14 -12 0 0 9 17 49 67 130 -18 146 5 58 145 6 24 146 47 59 144 23 51
145 22 32 -13 0 0 9 17 39 68 128 -18 145 52 25 144 52 31 146 34 41 144 9 42
145 8 15 -14 0 0 9 17 29 68 126 -18 145 38 20 144 38 3 146 20 51 143 54 57
144 53 22 -15 0 0 9 17 20 68 123 -18 145 23 39 144 22 58 146 6 28 143 39 34
144 37 52 -16 0 0 9 17 10 69 121 -18 145 8 22 144 7 15 145 51 29 143 23 32
144 21 44 -17 0 0 9 17 0 69 118 -19 144 52 28 143 50 52 145 35 54 143 6 49
144 4 55 -18 0 0 9 16 50 69 116 -19 144 35 54 143 33 48 145 19 41 142 49 24
143 47 25 -19 0 0 9 16 40 69 113 -19 144 18 40 143 16 2 145 2 49 142 31 14
143 29 11 -20 0 0 9 16 30 69 110 -19 144 0 42 142 57 30 144 45 15 142 12 17
143 10 11 -21 0 0 9 16 20 69 108 -19 143 42 0 142 38 12 144 26 58 141 52 33
142 50 23 -22 0 0 9 16 10 69 105 -19 143 22 32 142 18 5 144 7 56 141 31 57
142 29 44 -23 0 0 9 16 0 69 103 -19 143 2 14 141 57 6 143 48 6 141 10 28
142 8 13 -24 0 0 9 15 50 69 100 -19 142 41 4 141 35 12 143 27 27 140 48 2
141 45 47 -25 0 0 9 15 40 69 97 -18 142 19 1 141 12 22 143 5 56 140 24 38
141 22 22 -26 0 0 9 15 30 68 95 -18 141 56 0 140 48 32 142 43 30 140 0 12
140 57 55 -27 0 0 9 15 20 68 93 -18 141 32 0 140 23 39 142 20 5 139 34 40
140 32 24 -28 0 0 9 15 10 68 90 -18 141 6 56 139 57 40 141 55 40 139 8 0
140 5 44 -29 0 0 9 15 0 67 88 -18 140 40 46 139 30 30 141 30 11 138 40 6
139 37 51 -30 0 0 9 14 50 67 86 -18 140 13 25 139 2 5 141 3 33 138 10 54
139 8 41 -31 0 0 9 14 39 66 84 -18 139 44 48 138 32 21 140 35 43 137 40 21
138 38 10 -32 0 0 9 14 29 66 82 -18 139 14 52 138 1 13 140 6 37 137 8 19
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
137 0 0 -34 55 49 9 13 59 64 78 -17 -36 0 7 -33 50 20 -37 29 32 -32 15 9
136 0 0 -36 32 7 9 13 43 62 76 -17 -37 33 29 -35 29 43 -38 59 0 -33 59 12
135 0 0 -38 1 11 9 13 27 61 74 -16 -38 59 57 -37 1 31 -40 21 58 -35 35 6
Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs
Prediction of 2011 May 18.0
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