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Updated: 2011 MAY 18, 01:44 UT
Event Rank : 87
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2011 Jun 16 UT, the 99 km diameter asteroid (914) Palisana will occult a 11.5 mag star in the constellation Hydra for observers along a path just grazng the Western Australia coastline between Carnarvon and Exmouth.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.1 mag to 12.1 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 8.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
113 41 23 -37 15 34 13 18 0 78 331 -48 113 7 46 -37 14 16 114 15 3 -37 16 46 112 29 30 -37 12 37 114 53 29 -37 17 58
113 41 5 -35 47 58 13 18 13 79 327 -48 113 8 6 -35 46 40 114 14 7 -35 49 8 112 30 33 -35 45 3 114 51 50 -35 50 20
113 40 57 -34 20 41 13 18 27 80 322 -48 113 8 33 -34 19 25 114 13 24 -34 21 51 112 31 39 -34 17 49 114 50 27 -34 23 2
113 40 59 -32 53 41 13 18 40 81 316 -48 113 9 6 -32 52 26 114 12 53 -32 54 50 112 32 49 -32 50 51 114 49 19 -32 56 0
113 41 9 -31 26 54 13 18 54 82 308 -48 113 9 47 -31 25 40 114 12 34 -31 28 2 112 34 4 -31 24 7 114 48 25 -31 29 12
113 41 29 -30 0 17 13 19 7 83 298 -48 113 10 35 -29 59 3 114 12 26 -30 1 24 112 35 23 -29 57 31 114 47 45 -30 2 33
113 41 58 -28 33 46 13 19 21 83 286 -48 113 11 30 -28 32 33 114 12 29 -28 34 52 112 36 47 -28 31 2 114 47 19 -28 36 0
113 42 36 -27 7 18 13 19 34 84 272 -48 113 12 32 -27 6 6 114 12 43 -27 8 23 112 38 17 -27 4 37 114 47 6 -27 9 30
113 43 24 -25 40 50 13 19 47 83 259 -48 113 13 41 -25 39 39 114 13 8 -25 41 54 112 39 52 -25 38 10 114 47 5 -25 43 0
113 44 20 -24 14 18 13 20 1 83 247 -48 113 14 59 -24 13 8 114 13 44 -24 15 22 112 41 32 -24 11 40 114 47 18 -24 16 27
113 45 27 -22 47 40 13 20 14 82 237 -47 113 16 24 -22 46 30 114 14 32 -22 48 43 112 43 19 -22 45 4 114 47 43 -22 49 47
113 46 43 -21 20 51 13 20 28 81 229 -47 113 17 58 -21 19 43 114 15 30 -21 21 53 112 45 13 -21 18 17 114 48 22 -21 22 57
113 48 9 -19 53 49 13 20 41 80 223 -47 113 19 40 -19 52 41 114 16 40 -19 54 50 112 47 14 -19 51 17 114 49 13 -19 55 53
113 49 46 -18 26 30 13 20 55 79 218 -47 113 21 31 -18 25 23 114 18 2 -18 27 30 112 49 22 -18 24 0 114 50 18 -18 28 32
113 51 33 -16 58 50 13 21 8 78 214 -46 113 23 33 -16 57 45 114 19 36 -16 59 50 112 51 39 -16 56 22 114 51 37 -17 0 51
113 53 33 -15 30 47 13 21 21 77 211 -46 113 25 44 -15 29 42 114 21 23 -15 31 46 112 54 4 -15 28 20 114 53 9 -15 32 46
113 55 44 -14 2 15 13 21 35 76 208 -46 113 28 6 -14 1 11 114 23 23 -14 3 13 112 56 39 -13 59 51 114 54 57 -14 4 12
113 58 8 -12 33 12 13 21 48 74 206 -45 113 30 40 -12 32 8 114 25 37 -12 34 9 112 59 24 -12 30 49 114 56 59 -12 35 7
114 0 45 -11 3 32 13 22 2 73 204 -45 113 33 26 -11 2 30 114 28 5 -11 4 28 113 2 20 -11 1 11 114 59 18 -11 5 25
114 3 36 - 9 33 12 13 22 15 71 202 -44 113 36 25 - 9 32 10 114 30 49 - 9 34 7 113 5 28 - 9 30 53 115 1 53 - 9 35 3
114 6 43 - 8 2 6 13 22 29 70 201 -44 113 39 38 - 8 1 6 114 33 50 - 8 3 1 113 8 48 - 7 59 49 115 4 46 - 8 3 56
114 10 6 - 6 30 11 13 22 42 69 200 -43 113 43 7 - 6 29 11 114 37 8 - 6 31 4 113 12 23 - 6 27 56 115 7 58 - 6 31 58
114 13 47 - 4 57 19 13 22 55 67 199 -43 113 46 51 - 4 56 20 114 40 44 - 4 58 11 113 16 12 - 4 55 6 115 11 30 - 4 59 4
114 17 46 - 3 23 26 13 23 9 66 198 -42 113 50 54 - 3 22 28 114 44 41 - 3 24 17 113 20 18 - 3 21 15 115 15 23 - 3 25 8
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
Prediction of 2011 May 18.0
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