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Updated: 2011 MAY 18, 01:37 UT
Event Rank : 93
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2011 Jun 13 UT, the 99 km diameter asteroid (914) Palisana will occult a 13.3 mag star in the constellation Hydra for observers along a fairly broad path across New Zealand, crossing the North Island from Woodville to Wanganui, and across Australia from Nowra across NSW, south-west Queensland and The Northern Territory passing east of Darwin. Canberra, Sydney and Wellington are within the one sigma limit.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.3 mag to 12.1 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 8.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
179 26 21 -39 33 15 15 10 21 12 244 -47 177 41 57 -40 29 19 -178 34 29 -38 28 38 176 11 1 -41 17 38 -176 16 11 -37 12 56
176 6 18 -39 55 37 15 10 29 14 246 -50 174 35 42 -40 43 12 177 45 12 -39 3 7 173 14 34 -41 25 21 179 31 14 -38 6 14
173 12 43 -40 3 32 15 10 37 16 248 -52 171 50 45 -40 45 39 174 40 13 -39 18 3 170 36 11 -41 23 33 176 11 0 -38 30 20
170 37 28 -40 1 46 15 10 46 18 249 -54 169 21 32 -40 40 0 171 57 27 -39 21 3 168 11 45 -41 14 42 173 18 58 -38 39 4
168 16 13 -39 52 56 15 10 54 20 250 -55 167 4 46 -40 28 10 169 30 46 -39 15 43 165 58 41 -41 0 23 170 45 55 -38 37 47
166 6 16 -39 38 38 15 11 3 21 251 -57 164 58 22 -40 11 29 167 16 41 -39 4 8 163 55 14 -40 41 39 168 27 6 -38 29 15
164 5 49 -39 19 55 15 11 11 23 252 -59 163 0 48 -39 50 48 165 12 56 -38 47 39 162 0 7 -40 19 17 166 19 41 -38 15 10
162 13 34 -38 57 36 15 11 20 24 253 -60 161 10 58 -39 26 49 163 17 59 -38 27 9 160 12 22 -39 53 50 164 21 45 -37 56 40
160 28 32 -38 32 13 15 11 28 25 254 -61 159 27 59 -39 0 1 161 30 39 -38 3 21 158 31 11 -39 25 47 162 31 58 -37 34 31
158 49 56 -38 4 15 15 11 37 26 254 -63 157 51 10 -38 30 48 159 50 4 -37 36 44 156 55 56 -38 55 27 160 49 17 -37 9 18
157 17 7 -37 34 2 15 11 45 27 255 -64 156 19 56 -37 59 29 158 15 32 -37 7 42 155 26 6 -38 23 10 159 12 56 -36 41 30
155 49 34 -37 1 51 15 11 54 28 255 -65 154 53 48 -37 26 21 156 46 28 -36 36 34 154 1 13 -37 49 9 157 42 17 -36 11 27
154 26 51 -36 27 58 15 12 2 29 256 -66 153 32 20 -36 51 34 155 22 23 -36 3 36 152 40 54 -37 13 35 156 16 47 -35 39 26
153 8 33 -35 52 32 15 12 10 30 256 -68 152 15 12 -36 15 22 154 2 52 -35 29 0 151 24 48 -36 36 40 154 56 0 -35 5 42
151 54 22 -35 15 44 15 12 19 31 256 -69 151 2 4 -35 37 51 152 47 34 -34 52 58 150 12 37 -35 58 30 153 39 33 -34 30 26
150 43 59 -34 37 43 15 12 27 31 256 -70 149 52 39 -34 59 11 151 36 10 -34 15 38 149 4 5 -35 19 15 152 27 7 -33 53 47
149 37 9 -33 58 35 15 12 36 32 256 -71 148 46 42 -34 19 28 150 28 24 -33 37 7 147 58 57 -34 38 59 151 18 23 -33 15 55
148 33 38 -33 18 27 15 12 44 33 257 -72 147 44 0 -33 38 47 149 24 0 -32 57 33 146 57 0 -33 57 49 150 13 8 -32 36 55
147 33 12 -32 37 24 15 12 53 33 256 -73 146 44 20 -32 57 14 148 22 47 -32 17 1 145 58 3 -33 15 48 149 11 6 -31 56 55
146 35 42 -31 55 30 15 13 1 34 256 -74 145 47 33 -32 14 52 147 24 32 -31 35 35 145 1 55 -32 33 1 148 12 6 -31 15 58
145 40 56 -31 12 49 15 13 10 35 256 -75 144 53 26 -31 31 46 146 29 4 -30 53 21 144 8 25 -31 49 31 147 15 57 -30 34 10
144 48 45 -30 29 24 15 13 18 35 256 -76 144 1 53 -30 47 58 145 36 14 -30 10 21 143 17 26 -31 5 22 146 22 29 -29 51 34
143 59 0 -29 45 19 15 13 27 36 256 -77 143 12 43 -30 3 32 144 45 54 -29 26 38 142 28 49 -30 20 36 145 31 32 -29 8 14
143 11 34 -29 0 36 15 13 35 36 256 -78 142 25 50 -29 18 29 143 57 54 -28 42 16 141 42 26 -29 35 15 144 42 59 -28 24 12
142 26 20 -28 15 18 15 13 44 36 255 -79 141 41 6 -28 32 52 143 12 9 -27 57 16 140 58 11 -28 49 20 143 56 43 -27 39 32
141 43 11 -27 29 25 15 13 52 37 255 -80 140 58 25 -27 46 43 142 28 30 -27 11 41 140 15 57 -28 2 55 143 12 35 -26 54 14
141 2 1 -26 43 0 15 14 0 37 255 -81 140 17 42 -27 0 2 141 46 53 -26 25 33 139 35 39 -27 16 0 142 30 30 -26 8 22
140 22 44 -25 56 4 15 14 9 37 254 -81 139 38 51 -26 12 52 141 7 11 -25 38 52 138 57 11 -26 28 37 141 50 23 -25 21 56
139 45 16 -25 8 39 15 14 17 38 254 -82 139 1 46 -25 25 13 140 29 19 -24 51 40 138 20 29 -25 40 46 141 12 8 -24 34 58
139 9 32 -24 20 45 15 14 26 38 253 -83 138 26 24 -24 37 7 139 53 12 -24 3 58 137 45 27 -24 52 28 140 35 39 -23 47 28
138 35 27 -23 32 23 15 14 34 38 253 -83 137 52 39 -23 48 34 139 18 47 -23 15 48 137 12 2 -24 3 45 140 0 54 -22 59 29
138 2 59 -22 43 33 15 14 43 38 252 -84 137 20 29 -22 59 34 138 45 59 -22 27 9 136 40 9 -23 14 36 139 27 47 -22 11 0
137 32 2 -21 54 17 15 14 51 39 252 -84 136 49 50 -22 10 9 138 14 45 -21 38 2 136 9 46 -22 25 2 138 56 16 -21 22 2
137 2 34 -21 4 34 15 15 0 39 251 -84 136 20 38 -21 20 18 137 45 1 -20 48 28 135 40 50 -21 35 3 138 26 16 -20 32 36
136 34 32 -20 14 26 15 15 8 39 250 -84 135 52 50 -20 30 2 137 16 44 -19 58 26 135 13 16 -20 44 40 137 57 45 -19 42 42
136 7 53 -19 23 50 15 15 17 39 250 -84 135 26 25 -19 39 20 136 49 51 -19 7 57 134 47 3 -19 53 52 137 30 40 -18 52 20
135 42 35 -18 32 49 15 15 25 39 249 -83 135 1 19 -18 48 13 136 24 21 -18 17 2 134 22 9 -19 2 40 137 4 58 -18 1 30
135 18 35 -17 41 21 15 15 33 39 249 -83 134 37 30 -17 56 41 136 0 11 -17 25 39 133 58 30 -18 11 3 136 40 38 -17 10 12
134 55 52 -16 49 27 15 15 42 39 248 -82 134 14 56 -17 4 42 135 37 18 -16 33 48 133 36 5 -17 19 1 136 17 36 -16 18 25
134 34 23 -15 57 5 15 15 50 39 247 -82 133 53 35 -16 12 18 135 15 42 -15 41 30 133 14 53 -16 26 33 135 55 53 -15 26 10
134 14 8 -15 4 16 15 15 59 39 247 -81 133 33 27 -15 19 27 134 55 21 -14 48 43 132 54 51 -15 33 40 135 35 25 -14 33 25
133 55 5 -14 10 59 15 16 7 39 246 -80 133 14 30 -14 26 8 134 36 12 -13 55 28 132 35 59 -14 40 20 135 16 12 -13 40 11
133 37 13 -13 17 14 15 16 16 39 245 -80 132 56 42 -13 32 22 134 18 16 -13 1 43 132 18 15 -13 46 32 134 58 13 -12 46 26
133 20 31 -12 22 58 15 16 24 39 245 -79 132 40 2 -12 38 6 134 1 32 -12 7 27 132 1 39 -12 52 17 134 41 27 -11 52 10
133 4 59 -11 28 12 15 16 33 38 244 -78 132 24 31 -11 43 21 133 45 59 -11 12 40 131 46 10 -11 57 33 134 25 53 -10 57 21
132 50 35 -10 32 55 15 16 41 38 243 -77 132 10 8 -10 48 6 133 31 36 -10 17 20 131 31 47 -11 2 19 134 11 31 -10 1 59
132 37 21 - 9 37 4 15 16 50 38 243 -76 131 56 51 - 9 52 18 133 18 24 - 9 21 27 131 18 29 -10 6 34 133 58 22 - 9 6 3
132 25 15 - 8 40 40 15 16 58 38 242 -75 131 44 43 - 8 55 57 133 6 22 - 8 24 58 131 6 18 - 9 10 16 133 46 25 - 8 9 30
132 14 19 - 7 43 40 15 17 7 37 241 -74 131 33 42 - 7 59 2 132 55 31 - 7 27 53 130 55 13 - 8 13 25 133 35 40 - 7 12 19
132 4 32 - 6 46 2 15 17 15 37 241 -73 131 23 49 - 7 1 30 132 45 52 - 6 30 9 130 45 15 - 7 15 58 133 26 9 - 6 14 29
131 55 57 - 5 47 46 15 17 23 36 240 -72 131 15 5 - 6 3 21 132 37 26 - 5 31 46 130 36 24 - 6 17 55 133 17 53 - 5 15 58
131 48 33 - 4 48 48 15 17 32 36 239 -72 131 7 31 - 5 4 31 132 30 14 - 4 32 39 130 28 41 - 5 19 12 133 10 53 - 4 16 43
131 42 23 - 3 49 7 15 17 40 36 239 -71 131 1 8 - 4 4 59 132 24 18 - 3 32 48 130 22 7 - 4 19 49 133 5 12 - 3 16 41
131 37 28 - 2 48 40 15 17 49 35 238 -70 130 55 59 - 3 4 43 132 19 39 - 2 32 10 130 16 45 - 3 19 42 133 0 50 - 2 15 51
131 33 52 - 1 47 25 15 17 57 35 237 -69 130 52 5 - 2 3 39 132 16 21 - 1 30 41 130 12 36 - 2 18 49 132 57 52 - 1 14 9
131 31 36 - 0 45 17 15 18 6 34 237 -68 130 49 29 - 1 1 45 132 14 27 - 0 28 19 130 9 43 - 1 17 7 132 56 21 - 0 11 31
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2011 May 18.0
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