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Updated: 2011 APR 16, 14:28 UT
Event Rank : 95
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2011 May 28 UT, the 99 km diameter asteroid (914) Palisana will occult a 12.5 mag star in the constellation Centaurus for observers along a south-to-north path across Eastern Australia passing near Warrnambool, Mildura, Broken Hill and Mt Isa.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.5 mag to 11.8 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 7.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
141 47 22 -48 1 43 10 11 19 61 69 -32 141 2 40 -48 2 2 142 31 51 -48 1 9 140 23 9 -48 2 7 143 10 50 -48 0 28
141 53 1 -46 42 29 10 11 30 62 72 -33 141 9 27 -46 42 51 142 36 22 -46 41 53 140 30 58 -46 42 59 143 14 21 -46 41 10
141 56 57 -45 23 33 10 11 41 62 74 -33 141 14 27 -45 23 57 142 39 15 -45 22 55 140 36 54 -45 24 7 143 16 18 -45 22 11
141 59 19 -44 4 51 10 11 52 63 76 -33 141 17 48 -44 5 17 142 40 38 -44 4 12 140 41 7 -44 5 29 143 16 51 -44 3 27
142 0 15 -42 46 22 10 12 3 63 79 -33 141 19 39 -42 46 49 142 40 40 -42 45 42 140 43 46 -42 47 3 143 16 5 -42 44 57
141 59 51 -41 28 3 10 12 14 63 81 -33 141 20 6 -41 28 31 142 39 26 -41 27 23 140 44 57 -41 28 45 143 14 7 -41 26 37
141 58 13 -40 9 52 10 12 24 63 84 -33 141 19 14 -40 10 20 142 37 1 -40 9 11 140 44 47 -40 10 35 143 11 0 -40 8 25
141 55 24 -38 51 45 10 12 35 64 86 -33 141 17 10 -38 52 14 142 33 29 -38 51 5 140 43 22 -38 52 29 143 6 51 -38 50 19
141 51 30 -37 33 42 10 12 46 64 89 -33 141 13 56 -37 34 10 142 28 54 -37 33 2 140 40 44 -37 34 25 143 1 41 -37 32 17
141 46 34 -36 15 38 10 12 57 64 92 -33 141 9 38 -36 16 6 142 23 20 -36 14 59 140 36 59 -36 16 21 142 55 34 -36 14 15
141 40 38 -34 57 33 10 13 8 63 94 -33 141 4 17 -34 58 0 142 16 49 -34 56 55 140 32 10 -34 58 14 142 48 32 -34 56 12
141 33 45 -33 39 23 10 13 19 63 97 -32 140 57 57 -33 39 48 142 9 23 -33 38 46 140 26 18 -33 40 1 142 40 37 -33 38 4
141 25 56 -32 21 5 10 13 29 63 99 -32 140 50 39 -32 21 30 142 1 5 -32 20 30 140 19 27 -32 21 41 142 31 52 -32 19 50
141 17 14 -31 2 38 10 13 40 63 102 -32 140 42 25 -31 3 1 141 51 54 -31 2 5 140 11 38 -31 3 11 142 22 17 -31 1 27
141 7 39 -29 43 59 10 13 51 62 104 -32 140 33 16 -29 44 19 141 41 53 -29 43 28 140 2 53 -29 44 28 142 11 53 -29 42 51
140 57 13 -28 25 4 10 14 2 62 107 -31 140 23 14 -28 25 22 141 31 2 -28 24 35 139 53 12 -28 25 29 142 0 41 -28 24 1
140 45 55 -27 5 51 10 14 13 61 109 -31 140 12 18 -27 6 6 141 19 22 -27 5 25 139 42 36 -27 6 11 141 48 41 -27 4 53
140 33 46 -25 46 17 10 14 24 61 111 -31 140 0 30 -25 46 30 141 6 53 -25 45 54 139 31 6 -25 46 32 141 35 54 -25 45 25
140 20 45 -24 26 19 10 14 35 60 113 -30 139 47 48 -24 26 29 140 53 33 -24 26 0 139 18 41 -24 26 28 141 22 18 -24 25 33
140 6 53 -23 5 54 10 14 45 59 116 -30 139 34 14 -23 6 0 140 39 24 -23 5 38 139 5 21 -23 5 56 141 7 53 -23 5 15
139 52 9 -21 44 58 10 14 56 59 117 -29 139 19 44 -21 45 0 140 24 24 -21 44 46 138 51 6 -21 44 52 140 52 39 -21 44 26
139 36 30 -20 23 28 10 15 7 58 119 -29 139 4 20 -20 23 25 140 8 32 -20 23 20 138 35 53 -20 23 14 140 36 35 -20 23 4
139 19 57 -19 1 19 10 15 18 57 121 -28 138 47 59 -19 1 12 139 51 46 -19 1 16 138 19 43 -19 0 57 140 19 38 -19 1 4
139 2 26 -17 38 28 10 15 29 56 123 -28 138 30 39 -17 38 16 139 34 4 -17 38 30 138 2 32 -17 37 56 140 1 47 -17 38 23
138 43 56 -16 14 51 10 15 40 55 124 -27 138 12 18 -16 14 32 139 15 25 -16 14 58 137 44 19 -16 14 7 139 43 0 -16 14 55
138 24 24 -14 50 21 10 15 50 54 126 -26 137 52 53 -14 49 57 138 55 45 -14 50 34 137 25 1 -14 49 26 139 23 13 -14 50 36
138 3 46 -13 24 54 10 16 1 53 127 -26 137 32 21 -13 24 23 138 35 2 -13 25 14 137 4 33 -13 23 46 139 2 24 -13 25 22
137 41 59 -11 58 24 10 16 12 52 128 -25 137 10 38 -11 57 46 138 13 11 -11 58 51 136 42 54 -11 57 3 138 40 29 -11 59 5
137 18 58 -10 30 45 10 16 23 51 130 -24 136 47 39 -10 29 59 137 50 8 -10 31 20 136 19 56 -10 29 8 138 17 24 -10 31 41
136 54 38 - 9 1 49 10 16 34 50 131 -23 136 23 19 - 9 0 54 137 25 47 - 9 2 33 135 55 36 - 8 59 55 137 53 3 - 9 3 1
136 28 52 - 7 31 29 10 16 45 48 132 -23 135 57 31 - 7 30 24 137 0 3 - 7 32 22 135 29 45 - 7 29 16 137 27 20 - 7 32 59
136 1 33 - 5 59 35 10 16 56 47 133 -22 135 30 7 - 5 58 19 136 32 48 - 6 0 39 135 2 18 - 5 57 1 137 0 8 - 6 1 25
135 32 32 - 4 25 57 10 17 6 46 134 -21 135 0 59 - 4 24 29 136 3 53 - 4 27 13 134 33 3 - 4 23 0 136 31 19 - 4 28 9
135 1 38 - 2 50 23 10 17 17 44 135 -20 134 29 55 - 2 48 41 135 33 9 - 2 51 52 134 1 50 - 2 46 59 136 0 42 - 2 53 0
134 28 39 - 1 12 40 10 17 28 43 135 -19 133 56 43 - 1 10 42 135 0 22 - 1 14 24 133 28 25 - 1 8 45 135 28 5 - 1 15 44
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2011 Apr 16.0
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