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Updated: 2011 Mar 06, 19:05 UT
Event Rank : 71
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2011 Apr 30 UT, the 58 km diameter asteroid (382) Dodona will occult a 10.2 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a path across New Zealand, passing near Invercargill and Dunedin.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.0 mag to 13.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 29.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 7397-00001-1 by 382 Dodona on 2011 Apr 30
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
149 12 59 -10 38 1 12 22 41 12 121 -66 150 3 31 -10 54 17 148 18 57 -10 19 29 151 20 27 -11 17 8 146 39 56 - 9 42 26
151 30 59 -12 58 4 12 23 40 15 120 -69 152 13 11 -13 8 51 150 47 1 -12 46 8 153 19 9 -13 24 24 149 30 24 -12 23 37
153 17 38 -14 57 50 12 24 40 18 119 -71 153 55 25 -15 5 36 152 38 43 -14 49 18 154 55 12 -15 16 54 151 32 6 -14 33 29
154 45 54 -16 45 35 12 25 40 20 119 -72 155 20 54 -16 51 23 154 10 3 -16 39 13 156 16 41 -16 59 49 153 9 18 -16 27 27
156 1 45 -18 25 8 12 26 39 22 118 -74 156 34 51 -18 29 32 155 27 59 -18 20 17 157 27 50 -18 35 51 154 31 5 -18 11 19
157 8 30 -19 58 39 12 27 39 24 117 -74 157 40 14 -20 1 58 156 36 14 -19 54 57 158 31 10 -20 6 40 155 42 3 -19 48 3
158 8 16 -21 27 29 12 28 39 26 116 -75 158 38 58 -21 29 56 157 37 6 -21 24 42 159 28 21 -21 33 19 156 44 54 -21 19 24
159 2 25 -22 52 33 12 29 38 27 115 -75 159 32 20 -22 54 19 158 32 5 -22 50 31 160 20 33 -22 56 36 157 41 24 -22 46 32
159 51 59 -24 14 32 12 30 38 29 114 -75 160 21 18 -24 15 42 159 22 18 -24 13 7 161 8 36 -24 17 4 158 32 45 -24 10 13
160 37 41 -25 33 55 12 31 38 30 114 -75 161 6 32 -25 34 34 160 8 29 -25 33 2 161 53 8 -25 35 9 159 19 50 -25 31 3
161 20 6 -26 51 5 12 32 37 31 113 -75 161 48 36 -26 51 17 160 51 17 -26 50 40 162 34 40 -26 51 10 160 3 18 -26 49 29
161 59 40 -28 6 20 12 33 37 33 112 -74 162 27 54 -28 6 8 161 31 8 -28 6 19 163 13 34 -28 5 24 160 43 40 -28 5 50
162 36 45 -29 19 54 12 34 37 34 111 -74 163 4 48 -29 19 22 162 8 25 -29 20 16 163 50 11 -29 18 4 161 21 19 -29 20 25
163 11 39 -30 32 1 12 35 36 35 110 -73 163 39 34 -30 31 9 162 43 27 -30 32 42 164 24 46 -30 29 21 161 56 36 -30 33 25
163 44 35 -31 42 51 12 36 36 36 109 -72 164 12 26 -31 41 41 163 16 28 -31 43 50 164 57 33 -31 39 25 162 29 47 -31 45 3
164 15 47 -32 52 31 12 37 36 37 108 -71 164 43 36 -32 51 6 163 47 42 -32 53 47 165 28 42 -32 48 24 163 1 4 -32 55 28
164 45 24 -34 1 10 12 38 35 38 107 -70 165 13 15 -33 59 30 164 17 18 -34 2 41 165 58 24 -33 56 24 163 30 39 -34 4 48
165 13 36 -35 8 55 12 39 35 39 105 -69 165 41 31 -35 7 0 164 45 26 -35 10 40 166 26 46 -35 3 32 163 58 42 -35 13 11
165 40 30 -36 15 50 12 40 35 39 104 -68 166 8 30 -36 13 42 165 12 14 -36 17 48 166 53 56 -36 9 53 164 25 21 -36 20 41
166 6 12 -37 22 1 12 41 34 40 103 -67 166 34 21 -37 19 41 165 37 49 -37 24 12 167 20 1 -37 15 32 164 50 42 -37 27 26
166 30 50 -38 27 33 12 42 34 41 102 -66 166 59 9 -38 25 1 166 2 16 -38 29 55 167 45 5 -38 20 33 165 14 53 -38 33 30
166 54 27 -39 32 29 12 43 34 42 101 -65 167 22 58 -39 29 46 166 25 41 -39 35 3 168 9 14 -39 25 1 165 37 58 -39 38 56
167 17 8 -40 36 54 12 44 33 42 99 -64 167 45 54 -40 34 1 166 48 8 -40 39 39 168 32 33 -40 28 58 166 0 2 -40 43 50
167 38 59 -41 40 51 12 45 33 43 98 -63 168 8 1 -41 37 47 167 9 42 -41 43 47 168 55 6 -41 32 28 166 21 9 -41 48 15
168 0 1 -42 44 23 12 46 33 43 97 -62 168 29 21 -42 41 10 167 30 26 -42 47 29 169 16 56 -42 35 34 166 41 23 -42 52 13
168 20 19 -43 47 34 12 47 32 44 95 -61 168 49 59 -43 44 10 167 50 24 -43 50 49 169 38 6 -43 38 18 167 0 47 -43 55 49
168 39 56 -44 50 25 12 48 32 45 94 -60 169 9 58 -44 46 52 168 9 39 -44 53 49 169 58 41 -44 40 45 167 19 25 -44 59 5
168 58 54 -45 52 59 12 49 32 45 92 -59 169 29 20 -45 49 17 168 28 12 -45 56 33 170 18 42 -45 42 55 167 37 18 -46 2 4
169 17 16 -46 55 20 12 50 31 45 91 -58 169 48 8 -46 51 29 168 46 7 -46 59 2 170 38 12 -46 44 52 167 54 28 -47 4 48
Uncertainty in time = +/- 27 secs
Prediction of 2011 Mar 6.0
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