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Updated: 2011 JAN 07, 16:11 UT
Event Rank : 80
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2011 Feb 08 UT, the 84 km diameter asteroid (449) Hamburga will occult a 13.0 mag star in the constellation Leo for observers along a path beginning over South Island New Zealand between Christchurch and Invercargill. In Australia the path passes near Wollongong, Sydney, Newcastle and Dubbo. Then moving north-west through central Australia before ending near Geraldton in WA.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.3 mag to 11.8 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 11.0 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
175 38 29 -49 0 0 12 32 1 24 13 -26 177 5 8 174 10 3 178 58 43 172 8 29
174 26 20 -48 0 0 12 32 16 25 15 -27 175 52 45 172 58 4 177 45 57 170 56 35
173 12 7 -47 0 0 12 32 32 26 16 -28 174 38 29 171 43 51 176 31 29 169 42 14
171 55 43 -46 0 0 12 32 48 27 17 -29 173 22 10 170 27 17 175 15 11 168 25 16
170 36 58 -45 0 0 12 33 5 27 19 -30 172 3 41 169 8 9 173 56 55 167 5 28
169 15 40 -44 0 0 12 33 23 28 20 -31 170 42 50 167 46 17 172 36 31 165 42 36
167 51 37 -43 0 0 12 33 42 28 22 -32 169 19 26 166 21 26 171 13 48 164 16 25
166 24 32 -42 0 0 12 34 1 29 24 -33 167 53 14 164 53 19 169 48 34 162 46 34
164 54 9 -41 0 0 12 34 22 29 25 -33 166 23 59 163 21 35 168 20 34 161 12 40
163 20 4 -40 0 0 12 34 43 30 27 -34 164 51 20 161 45 50 166 49 31 159 34 12
161 41 53 -39 0 0 12 35 5 30 29 -35 163 14 56 160 5 34 165 15 6 157 50 34
159 59 4 -38 0 0 12 35 29 30 31 -35 161 34 18 158 20 11 163 36 56 156 1 0
158 10 57 -37 0 0 12 35 53 31 33 -36 159 48 52 156 28 54 161 54 32 154 4 29
156 16 42 -36 0 0 12 36 19 31 35 -36 157 57 57 154 30 42 160 7 19 151 59 42
154 15 14 -35 0 0 12 36 45 30 37 -37 156 0 38 152 24 15 158 14 35 149 44 45
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
153 0 0 -34 24 47 12 37 2 30 39 -37 -33 34 30 -35 16 32 -32 29 13 -36 28 27
152 0 0 -33 57 45 12 37 15 30 40 -37 -33 7 56 -34 48 59 -32 3 14 -36 0 9
151 0 0 -33 31 39 12 37 28 30 41 -37 -32 42 17 -34 22 24 -31 38 7 -35 32 50
150 0 0 -33 6 29 12 37 41 30 42 -37 -32 17 32 -33 56 47 -31 13 52 -35 6 32
149 0 0 -32 42 14 12 37 53 30 43 -37 -31 53 41 -33 32 6 -30 50 31 -34 41 13
148 0 0 -32 18 54 12 38 6 29 44 -37 -31 30 44 -33 8 22 -30 28 1 -34 16 52
147 0 0 -31 56 30 12 38 18 29 45 -37 -31 8 41 -32 45 34 -30 6 24 -33 53 31
146 0 0 -31 35 1 12 38 30 29 46 -36 -30 47 32 -32 23 43 -29 45 40 -33 31 7
145 0 0 -31 14 26 12 38 42 28 47 -36 -30 27 16 -32 2 48 -29 25 47 -33 9 42
144 0 0 -30 54 46 12 38 54 28 47 -36 -30 7 54 -31 42 49 -29 6 47 -32 49 14
143 0 0 -30 36 0 12 39 6 28 48 -36 -29 49 25 -31 23 45 -28 48 39 -32 29 43
142 0 0 -30 18 8 12 39 17 27 49 -35 -29 31 49 -31 5 36 -28 31 22 -32 11 10
141 0 0 -30 1 11 12 39 29 27 50 -35 -29 15 6 -30 48 23 -28 14 58 -31 53 34
140 0 0 -29 45 8 12 39 40 26 51 -35 -28 59 17 -30 32 6 -27 59 25 -31 36 54
139 0 0 -29 29 59 12 39 50 26 52 -34 -28 44 20 -30 16 43 -27 44 45 -31 21 12
138 0 0 -29 15 44 12 40 1 25 53 -34 -28 30 17 -30 2 15 -27 30 56 -31 6 25
137 0 0 -29 2 23 12 40 12 25 53 -34 -28 17 7 -29 48 42 -27 17 59 -30 52 36
136 0 0 -28 49 55 12 40 22 24 54 -33 -28 4 49 -29 36 4 -27 5 54 -30 39 42
135 0 0 -28 38 22 12 40 32 24 55 -33 -27 53 25 -29 24 21 -26 54 40 -30 27 45
134 0 0 -28 27 42 12 40 42 23 56 -32 -27 42 53 -29 13 33 -26 44 19 -30 16 44
133 0 0 -28 17 57 12 40 51 22 56 -32 -27 33 15 -29 3 40 -26 34 49 -30 6 39
132 0 0 -28 9 5 12 41 0 22 57 -31 -27 24 30 -28 54 41 -26 26 12 -29 57 30
131 0 0 -28 1 7 12 41 9 21 58 -31 -27 16 37 -28 46 37 -26 18 27 -29 49 18
130 0 0 -27 54 3 12 41 18 20 58 -30 -27 9 38 -28 39 28 -26 11 33 -29 42 2
129 0 0 -27 47 54 12 41 26 20 59 -30 -27 3 33 -28 33 15 -26 5 32 -29 35 42
128 0 0 -27 42 38 12 41 35 19 60 -29 -26 58 20 -28 27 56 -26 0 24 -29 30 19
127 0 0 -27 38 17 12 41 42 18 60 -28 -26 54 1 -28 23 32 -25 56 7 -29 25 52
126 0 0 -27 34 51 12 41 50 18 61 -28 -26 50 36 -28 20 4 -25 52 44 -29 22 21
125 0 0 -27 32 19 12 41 57 17 61 -27 -26 48 4 -28 17 32 -25 50 13 -29 19 48
124 0 0 -27 30 41 12 42 4 16 62 -26 -26 46 27 -28 15 55 -25 48 35 -29 18 12
123 0 0 -27 29 59 12 42 11 15 62 -26 -26 45 43 -28 15 14 -25 47 50 -29 17 32
122 0 0 -27 30 12 12 42 18 15 63 -25 -26 45 54 -28 15 29 -25 47 59 -29 17 50
121 0 0 -27 31 20 12 42 24 14 64 -24 -26 47 0 -28 16 40 -25 49 1 -29 19 6
120 0 0 -27 33 24 12 42 29 13 64 -23 -26 49 0 -28 18 48 -25 50 56 -29 21 19
119 0 0 -27 36 24 12 42 35 12 65 -23 -26 51 55 -28 21 53 -25 53 46 -29 24 31
118 0 0 -27 40 20 12 42 40 12 65 -22 -26 55 46 -28 25 55 -25 57 30 -29 28 41
117 0 0 -27 45 13 12 42 45 11 66 -21 -27 0 32 -28 30 54 -26 2 8 -29 33 51
116 0 0 -27 51 2 12 42 49 10 66 -20 -27 6 14 -28 36 51 -26 7 41 -29 39 59
115 0 0 -27 57 49 12 42 53 9 67 -20 -27 12 53 -28 43 46 -26 14 10 -29 47 7
114 0 0 -28 5 33 12 42 57 8 67 -19 -27 20 28 -28 51 40 -26 21 33 -29 55 14
113 0 0 -28 14 15 12 43 0 7 68 -18 -27 29 0 -29 0 32 -26 29 53 -30 4 23
112 0 0 -28 23 55 12 43 3 6 68 -17 -27 38 29 -29 10 24 -26 39 9 -30 14 32
111 0 0 -28 34 34 12 43 6 6 69 -16 -27 48 56 -29 21 16 -26 49 21 -30 25 42
110 0 0 -28 46 12 12 43 8 5 69 -15 -28 0 21 -29 33 8 .. .. .. -30 37 55
109 0 0 -28 58 50 12 43 10 4 70 -14 -28 12 45 -29 46 1 .. .. .. -30 51 10
Uncertainty in time = +/- 9 secs
Prediction of 2011 Jan 8.0
Use these links for further information:
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[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
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