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Updated: 2010 OCT 19, 18:42 UT
Event Rank : 15
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2011 Jan 01 UT, the 22 km diameter asteroid (1584) Fuji will occult a 11.0 mag star in the constellation Camelopardalis for observers along a narrow path across eastern West Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.7 mag to 13.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: .
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
126 1 17 -34 0 0 12 12 39 3 6 -15 125 54 3 126 8 31 124 48 29 127 14 7
126 9 28 -33 0 0 12 12 38 4 6 -16 126 2 19 126 16 38 124 57 31 127 21 29
126 17 38 -32 0 0 12 12 38 5 6 -16 126 10 33 126 24 42 125 6 27 127 28 51
126 25 45 -31 0 0 12 12 37 6 6 -17 126 18 45 126 32 45 125 15 19 127 36 14
126 33 51 -30 0 0 12 12 36 7 6 -18 126 26 55 126 40 47 125 24 8 127 43 38
126 41 56 -29 0 0 12 12 35 8 6 -19 126 35 4 126 48 48 125 32 53 127 51 2
126 50 0 -28 0 0 12 12 34 9 6 -19 126 43 12 126 56 48 125 41 35 127 58 28
126 58 4 -27 0 0 12 12 32 10 6 -20 126 51 19 127 4 48 125 50 16 128 5 56
127 6 7 -26 0 0 12 12 31 11 6 -21 126 59 26 127 12 49 125 58 54 128 13 25
127 14 11 -25 0 0 12 12 29 12 6 -22 127 7 34 127 20 49 126 7 31 128 20 56
127 22 16 -24 0 0 12 12 28 13 6 -22 127 15 41 127 28 51 126 16 6 128 28 30
127 30 22 -23 0 0 12 12 26 14 6 -23 127 23 50 127 36 54 126 24 41 128 36 7
127 38 29 -22 0 0 12 12 24 15 5 -24 127 32 0 127 44 58 126 33 16 128 43 46
127 46 37 -21 0 0 12 12 21 16 5 -24 127 40 11 127 53 4 126 41 50 128 51 29
127 54 48 -20 0 0 12 12 19 17 5 -25 127 48 23 128 1 12 126 50 25 128 59 15
128 3 0 -19 0 0 12 12 17 18 5 -26 127 56 38 128 9 22 126 59 1 129 7 4
128 11 15 -18 0 0 12 12 14 19 5 -27 128 4 55 128 17 34 127 7 37 129 14 57
128 19 32 -17 0 0 12 12 11 20 5 -27 128 13 14 128 25 50 127 16 14 129 22 54
128 27 52 -16 0 0 12 12 8 21 5 -28 128 21 36 128 34 8 127 24 53 129 30 56
128 36 15 -15 0 0 12 12 5 22 5 -29 128 30 1 128 42 30 127 33 34 129 39 2
128 44 42 -14 0 0 12 12 2 23 5 -29 128 38 30 128 50 55 127 42 17 129 47 13
128 53 12 -13 0 0 12 11 59 24 5 -30 128 47 1 128 59 23 127 51 2 129 55 28
129 1 47 -12 0 0 12 11 56 25 5 -31 128 55 37 129 7 56 127 59 50 130 3 49
129 10 25 -11 0 0 12 11 52 26 5 -31 129 4 16 129 16 33 128 8 41 130 12 15
129 19 7 -10 0 0 12 11 48 27 5 -32 129 13 0 129 25 15 128 17 34 130 20 46
Uncertainty in time = +/- 8 secs
Prediction of 2010 Dec 23.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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