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Updated: 2010 OCT 14, 10:08 UT
Event Rank : 38
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Dec 04 UT, the 18 km diameter asteroid (1468) Zomba will occult a 7.8 mag star in the constellation Perseus for observers along a narrow path across Australia from CApe York across central Northern Territory and Western Australia to just north of Perth.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 7.4 mag to 15.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: .
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
110 41 39 -37 0 0 15 20 27 14 12 -29 110 28 49 110 54 31 109 44 59 111 39 7
111 29 53 -36 0 0 15 20 22 15 12 -30 111 17 4 111 42 46 110 33 15 112 27 22
112 19 39 -35 0 0 15 20 16 17 11 -31 112 6 49 112 32 32 111 22 59 113 17 12
113 11 1 -34 0 0 15 20 10 18 10 -32 112 58 9 113 23 55 112 14 13 114 8 41
114 4 2 -33 0 0 15 20 4 19 10 -33 113 51 7 114 16 59 113 7 3 115 1 55
114 58 48 -32 0 0 15 19 57 20 9 -35 114 45 49 115 11 49 114 1 34 115 56 59
115 55 24 -31 0 0 15 19 49 21 8 -36 115 42 21 116 8 30 114 57 50 116 53 58
116 53 59 -30 0 0 15 19 41 22 8 -37 116 40 49 117 7 11 115 55 59 117 53 1
117 54 38 -29 0 0 15 19 33 23 7 -38 117 41 21 118 7 57 116 56 7 118 54 15
118 57 30 -28 0 0 15 19 24 24 6 -39 118 44 5 119 10 59 117 58 22 119 57 49
120 2 46 -27 0 0 15 19 14 25 5 -40 119 49 11 120 16 25 119 2 53 121 3 53
121 10 37 -26 0 0 15 19 3 26 4 -41 120 56 49 121 24 29 120 9 52 122 12 42
122 21 16 -25 0 0 15 18 52 28 3 -43 122 7 14 122 35 22 121 19 30 123 24 28
123 34 58 -24 0 0 15 18 41 29 2 -44 123 20 40 123 49 22 122 32 1 124 39 29
124 52 3 -23 0 0 15 18 28 30 1 -45 124 37 25 125 6 46 123 47 42 125 58 6
126 12 52 -22 0 0 15 18 15 31 360 -46 125 57 51 126 27 58 125 6 53 127 20 43
127 37 51 -21 0 0 15 18 1 32 359 -47 127 22 23 127 53 25 126 29 58 128 47 50
129 7 34 -20 0 0 15 17 46 33 357 -48 128 51 35 129 23 41 127 57 25 130 20 5
130 42 43 -19 0 0 15 17 29 33 356 -49 130 26 5 130 59 29 129 29 52 131 58 17
132 24 9 -18 0 0 15 17 12 34 354 -50 132 6 45 132 41 43 131 8 2 133 43 26
134 13 3 -17 0 0 15 16 53 35 353 -50 133 54 42 134 31 36 132 52 56 135 36 59
136 11 2 -16 0 0 15 16 33 36 351 -51 135 51 28 136 30 50 134 45 53 137 40 54
138 20 22 -15 0 0 15 16 11 36 348 -52 137 59 13 138 41 48 136 48 41 139 58 9
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
139 0 0 -14 42 47 15 16 4 37 348 -52 -14 33 28 -14 52 9 -14 1 42 -15 24 36
140 0 0 -14 17 47 15 15 53 37 347 -52 -14 8 32 -14 27 3 -13 37 1 -14 59 14
141 0 0 -13 54 0 15 15 43 37 346 -52 -13 44 50 -14 3 12 -13 13 34 -14 35 7
142 0 0 -13 31 26 15 15 33 37 345 -52 -13 22 20 -13 40 34 -12 51 18 -14 12 14
143 0 0 -13 10 4 15 15 22 37 344 -52 -13 1 2 -13 19 8 -12 30 12 -13 50 35
144 0 0 -12 49 53 15 15 12 37 343 -52 -12 40 55 -12 58 53 -12 10 17 -13 30 8
145 0 0 -12 30 53 15 15 2 37 342 -52 -12 21 58 -12 39 50 -11 51 31 -13 10 52
146 0 0 -12 13 2 15 14 52 37 341 -52 -12 4 10 -12 21 56 -11 33 54 -12 52 47
147 0 0 -11 56 21 15 14 42 37 340 -52 -11 47 32 -12 5 12 -11 17 25 -12 35 53
148 0 0 -11 40 48 15 14 32 37 339 -51 -11 32 1 -11 49 36 -11 2 4 -12 20 8
149 0 0 -11 26 23 15 14 22 37 338 -51 -11 17 39 -11 35 9 -10 47 50 -12 5 32
150 0 0 -11 13 5 15 14 12 37 337 -51 -11 4 24 -11 21 49 -10 34 42 -11 52 4
151 0 0 -11 0 55 15 14 2 37 336 -50 -10 52 15 -11 9 36 -10 22 40 -11 39 45
152 0 0 -10 49 51 15 13 52 36 336 -50 -10 41 13 -10 58 31 -10 11 43 -11 28 32
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2010 Nov 19.0
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