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Updated: 2010 JUL 12, 03:32 UT
Event Rank : 7
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Dec 03 UT, the 10 km diameter asteroid (2843) Yeti will occult a 9.6 mag star in the constellation Cancer for observers along an extremely narrow path across Australia from east of Darwin to Eucla in south-east Western Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 6.6 mag to 16.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
127 25 26 -36 0 0 18 2 51 36 12 -20 127 21 58 127 28 53 126 17 18 128 33 26
127 45 35 -35 0 0 18 2 27 37 12 -21 127 42 10 127 49 0 126 38 18 128 52 46
128 5 30 -34 0 0 18 2 2 38 12 -22 128 2 7 128 8 53 126 59 1 129 11 53
128 25 11 -33 0 0 18 1 37 39 12 -22 128 21 51 128 28 32 127 19 28 129 30 49
128 44 41 -32 0 0 18 1 11 40 12 -23 128 41 23 128 47 59 127 39 41 129 49 36
129 3 59 -31 0 0 18 0 45 41 11 -24 129 0 43 129 7 16 127 59 41 130 8 14
129 23 8 -30 0 0 18 0 18 42 11 -24 129 19 54 129 26 22 128 19 28 130 26 43
129 42 7 -29 0 0 17 59 50 43 11 -25 129 38 55 129 45 19 128 39 4 130 45 5
130 0 58 -28 0 0 17 59 22 44 11 -25 129 57 47 130 4 8 128 58 30 131 3 21
130 19 41 -27 0 0 17 58 54 45 11 -26 130 16 32 130 22 49 129 17 47 131 21 31
130 38 17 -26 0 0 17 58 25 46 11 -27 130 35 9 130 41 24 129 36 54 131 39 36
130 56 46 -25 0 0 17 57 56 47 11 -27 130 53 41 130 59 52 129 55 54 131 57 36
131 15 10 -24 0 0 17 57 26 48 11 -28 131 12 6 131 18 15 130 14 46 132 15 32
131 33 29 -23 0 0 17 56 56 49 11 -28 131 30 26 131 36 32 130 33 32 132 33 24
131 51 43 -22 0 0 17 56 25 50 11 -29 131 48 42 131 54 45 130 52 12 132 51 13
132 9 54 -21 0 0 17 55 54 51 11 -29 132 6 53 132 12 54 131 10 46 133 8 59
132 28 0 -20 0 0 17 55 22 52 11 -30 132 25 1 132 30 59 131 29 15 133 26 44
132 46 3 -19 0 0 17 54 50 53 11 -31 132 43 5 132 49 1 131 47 39 133 44 26
133 4 3 -18 0 0 17 54 17 54 11 -31 133 1 6 133 7 1 132 5 59 134 2 6
133 22 1 -17 0 0 17 53 45 56 11 -32 133 19 5 133 24 57 132 24 15 134 19 46
133 39 57 -16 0 0 17 53 11 57 11 -32 133 37 1 133 42 52 132 42 28 134 37 24
133 57 51 -15 0 0 17 52 38 58 11 -33 133 54 56 134 0 45 133 0 38 134 55 2
134 15 43 -14 0 0 17 52 4 59 11 -33 134 12 49 134 18 37 133 18 46 135 12 39
134 33 34 -13 0 0 17 51 29 60 11 -34 134 30 41 134 36 27 133 36 50 135 30 17
134 51 24 -12 0 0 17 50 55 61 11 -34 134 48 31 134 54 16 133 54 53 135 47 54
135 9 13 -11 0 0 17 50 20 62 11 -35 135 6 21 135 12 5 134 12 54 136 5 32
135 27 2 -10 0 0 17 49 44 63 11 -35 135 24 11 135 29 53 134 30 53 136 23 10
135 44 50 - 9 0 0 17 49 8 64 11 -36 135 42 0 135 47 41 134 48 51 136 40 50
136 2 39 - 8 0 0 17 48 32 65 11 -36 135 59 48 136 5 29 135 6 48 136 58 30
136 20 27 - 7 0 0 17 47 56 66 11 -36 136 17 37 136 23 17 135 24 44 137 16 11
136 38 16 - 6 0 0 17 47 20 67 11 -37 136 35 26 136 41 6 135 42 39 137 33 53
136 56 5 - 5 0 0 17 46 43 68 12 -37 136 53 16 136 58 55 136 0 34 137 51 37
137 13 55 - 4 0 0 17 46 6 69 12 -38 137 11 6 137 16 44 136 18 28 138 9 23
137 31 46 - 3 0 0 17 45 28 70 12 -38 137 28 57 137 34 35 136 36 22 138 27 10
137 49 37 - 2 0 0 17 44 50 71 12 -39 137 46 48 137 52 26 136 54 16 138 45 0
Uncertainty in time = +/- 35 secs
Prediction of 2010 Nov 19.0
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