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Updated: 2010 NOV 19, 14:22 UT
Event Rank : 94
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Dec 01 UT, the 50 km diameter asteroid (186) Celuta will occult a 11.5 mag star in the constellation Perseus for observers along a fairly narrow path across Australia from Ayr across central q, south-east Northern Territory, north-west South Australia and south Western Australia to near Albany.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.0 mag to 12.0 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
112 33 30 -41 0 0 12 41 0 8 28 -10 111 53 27 113 13 56 111 16 56 113 51 29
113 40 4 -40 0 0 12 40 56 10 27 -11 112 59 57 114 20 34 112 23 23 114 58 11
114 48 21 -39 0 0 12 40 52 11 26 -12 114 8 8 115 29 0 113 31 28 116 6 46
115 58 31 -38 0 0 12 40 47 12 26 -13 115 18 7 116 39 22 114 41 18 117 17 20
117 10 42 -37 0 0 12 40 41 14 25 -15 116 30 2 117 51 49 115 53 1 118 30 4
118 25 4 -36 0 0 12 40 34 15 24 -16 117 44 5 119 6 33 117 6 46 119 45 9
119 41 49 -35 0 0 12 40 27 16 23 -18 119 0 24 120 23 44 118 22 45 121 2 46
121 1 9 -34 0 0 12 40 19 17 22 -19 120 19 14 121 43 37 119 41 8 122 23 11
122 23 20 -33 0 0 12 40 10 19 21 -21 121 40 48 123 6 27 121 2 10 123 46 40
123 48 39 -32 0 0 12 40 0 20 20 -22 123 5 23 124 32 33 122 26 8 125 13 33
125 17 28 -31 0 0 12 39 49 21 19 -24 124 33 19 126 2 18 123 53 18 126 44 12
126 50 10 -30 0 0 12 39 37 23 18 -25 126 5 0 127 36 8 125 24 4 128 19 8
128 27 17 -29 0 0 12 39 25 24 17 -27 127 40 52 129 14 35 126 58 52 129 58 54
130 9 25 -28 0 0 12 39 10 26 16 -29 129 21 30 130 58 19 128 38 14 131 44 14
131 57 21 -27 0 0 12 38 55 27 14 -30 131 7 38 132 48 12 130 22 49 133 36 3
133 52 5 -26 0 0 12 38 37 28 13 -32 133 0 9 134 45 19 132 13 28 135 35 35
135 54 56 -25 0 0 12 38 18 30 11 -34 135 0 16 136 51 11 134 11 15 137 44 29
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
136 0 0 -24 57 37 12 38 18 30 11 -34 -24 31 42 -25 23 51 -24 8 6 -25 48 16
137 0 0 -24 29 58 12 38 8 30 10 -35 -24 4 17 -24 55 58 -23 40 54 -25 20 9
138 0 0 -24 3 21 12 37 59 31 9 -36 -23 37 52 -24 29 7 -23 14 41 -24 53 6
139 0 0 -23 37 45 12 37 49 31 8 -37 -23 12 28 -24 3 18 -22 49 28 -24 27 5
140 0 0 -23 13 9 12 37 39 32 7 -38 -22 48 4 -23 38 30 -22 25 14 -24 2 5
141 0 0 -22 49 33 12 37 29 32 6 -38 -22 24 39 -23 14 43 -22 1 59 -23 38 7
142 0 0 -22 26 56 12 37 19 33 6 -39 -22 2 13 -22 51 55 -21 39 42 -23 15 9
143 0 0 -22 5 19 12 37 9 33 5 -40 -21 40 45 -22 30 8 -21 18 23 -22 53 12
144 0 0 -21 44 40 12 36 59 34 4 -41 -21 20 16 -22 9 19 -20 58 2 -22 32 14
145 0 0 -21 24 59 12 36 49 34 3 -41 -21 0 44 -21 49 29 -20 38 38 -22 12 16
146 0 0 -21 6 17 12 36 38 34 2 -42 -20 42 10 -21 30 38 -20 20 11 -21 53 16
147 0 0 -20 48 32 12 36 28 35 1 -43 -20 24 33 -21 12 45 -20 2 41 -21 35 16
148 0 0 -20 31 44 12 36 18 35 360 -43 -20 7 52 -20 55 50 -19 46 7 -21 18 13
149 0 0 -20 15 53 12 36 7 35 359 -44 -19 52 8 -20 39 52 -19 30 29 -21 2 8
150 0 0 -20 0 59 12 35 57 36 358 -45 -19 37 20 -20 24 51 -19 15 47 -20 47 1
151 0 0 -19 47 1 12 35 46 36 357 -45 -19 23 28 -20 10 47 -19 2 1 -20 32 52
152 0 0 -19 33 59 12 35 36 36 356 -46 -19 10 32 -19 57 40 -18 49 10 -20 19 39
153 0 0 -19 21 53 12 35 26 36 355 -46 -18 58 31 -19 45 28 -18 37 13 -20 7 23
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2010 Nov 19.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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