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Updated: 2010 OCT 04, 22:55 UT
Event Rank : 28
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Nov 30 UT, the 34 km diameter asteroid (1687) Glarona will occult a 10.7 mag star in the constellation Pisces for observers along path beginning near Bega and Wangaratta in NSW (low altitude). The path moves north-west into SA near Port Augusta and Woomera before ending in WA near Port Hedland.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.9 mag to 14.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 23.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: .
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
157 5 48 -39 37 9 14 58 33 10 284 -25 156 35 57 -39 40 7 157 36 48 -39 34 17 154 24 9 -39 55 26 160 28 52 -39 22 2
150 8 49 -37 37 11 15 0 14 15 287 -28 149 48 12 -37 40 42 150 29 46 -37 33 41 148 12 33 -37 58 8 152 16 29 -37 17 16
145 15 32 -35 48 8 15 1 55 19 290 -31 144 58 15 -35 51 48 145 32 59 -35 44 28 143 36 58 -36 9 50 147 0 10 -35 27 4
141 20 17 -34 5 6 15 3 37 23 292 -34 141 4 50 -34 8 50 141 35 51 -34 1 24 139 51 39 -34 27 3 142 52 56 -33 43 39
138 0 38 -32 26 19 15 5 18 25 293 -36 137 46 22 -32 30 3 138 14 59 -32 22 36 136 38 29 -32 48 18 139 25 44 -32 4 44
135 5 34 -30 50 49 15 6 59 28 294 -37 134 52 9 -30 54 32 135 19 4 -30 47 5 133 48 5 -31 12 44 136 25 23 -30 29 13
132 28 45 -29 17 59 15 8 41 30 295 -39 132 15 57 -29 21 42 132 41 36 -29 14 17 131 14 47 -29 39 48 133 44 37 -28 56 28
130 6 3 -27 47 26 15 10 22 33 295 -41 129 53 45 -27 51 7 130 18 24 -27 43 44 128 54 53 -28 9 6 131 18 52 -27 26 1
127 54 42 -26 18 49 15 12 3 35 296 -42 127 42 48 -26 22 30 128 6 38 -26 15 10 126 45 47 -26 40 22 129 5 2 -25 57 31
125 52 39 -24 51 56 15 13 45 37 296 -43 125 41 5 -24 55 35 126 4 15 -24 48 17 124 45 36 -25 13 19 127 0 56 -24 30 46
123 58 23 -23 26 33 15 15 26 38 296 -45 123 47 6 -23 30 11 124 9 42 -23 22 56 122 52 56 -23 47 48 125 4 58 -23 5 31
122 10 45 -22 2 32 15 17 7 40 296 -46 121 59 42 -22 6 8 122 21 49 -21 58 56 121 6 39 -22 23 39 123 15 52 -21 41 37
120 28 49 -20 39 44 15 18 49 42 296 -47 120 17 58 -20 43 18 120 39 40 -20 36 9 119 25 54 -21 0 42 121 32 40 -20 18 56
118 51 50 -19 18 1 15 20 30 43 296 -48 118 41 10 -19 21 34 119 2 31 -19 14 27 117 49 57 -19 38 51 119 54 36 -18 57 20
117 19 12 -17 57 17 15 22 11 45 295 -49 117 8 42 -18 0 49 117 29 44 -17 53 45 116 18 13 -18 18 1 118 21 1 -17 36 43
115 50 26 -16 37 27 15 23 53 46 295 -50 115 40 4 -16 40 58 116 0 49 -16 33 56 114 50 14 -16 58 4 116 51 24 -16 16 59
114 25 5 -15 18 26 15 25 34 48 294 -51 114 14 51 -15 21 56 114 35 21 -15 14 56 113 25 36 -15 38 57 115 25 19 -14 58 4
113 2 49 -14 0 10 15 27 15 49 293 -52 112 52 41 -14 3 39 113 12 58 -13 56 41 112 3 57 -14 20 35 114 2 24 -13 39 52
111 43 19 -12 42 33 15 28 57 51 293 -53 111 33 17 -12 46 1 111 53 22 -12 39 5 110 44 59 -13 2 53 112 42 19 -12 22 21
110 26 19 -11 25 33 15 30 38 52 292 -54 110 16 22 -11 29 0 110 36 17 -11 22 5 109 28 29 -11 45 48 111 24 48 -11 5 25
Uncertainty in time = +/- 60 secs
Prediction of 2010 Oct 4.0
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