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Updated: 2010 OCT 04, 16:17 UT
Event Rank : 98
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Nov 19 UT, the 136 km diameter asteroid (212) Medea will occult a 12.3 mag star in the constellation Auriga for observers along a path beginning near Brisbane and moving south-west. Passing near Broken Hill before ending near Adelaide and Port Lincoln in South Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.8 mag to 12.5 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 15.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
126 36 50 -40 0 0 13 58 21 9 41 -28 124 27 51 128 49 54 123 2 12 130 23 1
128 18 42 -39 0 0 13 58 15 10 39 -29 126 8 23 130 33 25 124 41 59 132 7 53
130 3 26 -38 0 0 13 58 9 12 38 -30 127 51 27 132 20 14 126 24 7 133 56 22
131 51 29 -37 0 0 13 58 1 14 37 -32 129 37 25 134 10 48 128 8 53 135 49 0
133 43 17 -36 0 0 13 57 52 15 36 -33 131 26 41 136 5 42 129 56 41 137 46 24
135 39 23 -35 0 0 13 57 42 17 35 -35 133 19 42 138 5 35 131 47 55 139 49 20
137 40 29 -34 0 0 13 57 30 19 33 -36 135 17 2 140 11 17 133 43 6 141 58 48
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
138 0 0 -33 50 35 13 57 28 19 33 -36 -32 40 40 -35 2 44 -31 54 17 -35 53 13
139 0 0 -33 22 3 13 57 22 20 32 -37 -32 12 39 -34 33 39 -31 26 35 -35 23 44
140 0 0 -32 54 12 13 57 15 21 32 -37 -31 45 17 -34 5 16 -30 59 32 -34 54 56
141 0 0 -32 27 1 13 57 8 21 31 -38 -31 18 34 -33 37 33 -30 33 8 -34 26 51
142 0 0 -32 0 30 13 57 1 22 30 -38 -30 52 32 -33 10 33 -30 7 22 -33 59 27
143 0 0 -31 34 41 13 56 54 23 29 -39 -30 27 9 -32 44 14 -29 42 17 -33 32 47
144 0 0 -31 9 32 13 56 47 24 29 -39 -30 2 26 -32 18 37 -29 17 50 -33 6 49
145 0 0 -30 45 5 13 56 39 25 28 -40 -29 38 24 -31 53 42 -28 54 4 -32 41 34
146 0 0 -30 21 19 13 56 31 25 27 -40 -29 15 2 -31 29 29 -28 30 57 -32 17 2
147 0 0 -29 58 14 13 56 23 26 26 -41 -28 52 21 -31 5 59 -28 8 31 -31 53 14
148 0 0 -29 35 51 13 56 15 27 26 -41 -28 30 20 -30 43 12 -27 46 45 -31 30 8
149 0 0 -29 14 10 13 56 6 27 25 -41 -28 9 1 -30 21 7 -27 25 40 -31 7 46
150 0 0 -28 53 11 13 55 58 28 24 -42 -27 48 23 -29 59 45 -27 5 15 -30 46 8
151 0 0 -28 32 53 13 55 49 29 23 -42 -27 28 25 -29 39 6 -26 45 30 -30 25 13
152 0 0 -28 13 18 13 55 40 29 22 -42 -27 9 9 -29 19 10 -26 26 26 -30 5 1
153 0 0 -27 54 24 13 55 31 30 22 -42 -26 50 34 -28 59 56 -26 8 3 -29 45 33
154 0 0 -27 36 13 13 55 22 30 21 -43 -26 32 40 -28 41 25 -25 50 21 -29 26 48
155 0 0 -27 18 44 13 55 12 31 20 -43 -26 15 28 -28 23 38 -25 33 19 -29 8 47
156 0 0 -27 1 56 13 55 3 32 19 -43 -25 58 57 -28 6 33 -25 16 59 -28 51 29
157 0 0 -26 45 51 13 54 53 32 18 -43 -25 43 7 -27 50 11 -25 1 19 -28 34 55
158 0 0 -26 30 28 13 54 43 33 17 -43 -25 27 59 -27 34 32 -24 46 20 -28 19 5
159 0 0 -26 15 47 13 54 34 33 16 -43 -25 13 32 -27 19 36 -24 32 2 -28 3 58
160 0 0 -26 1 48 13 54 24 34 15 -43 -24 59 46 -27 5 23 -24 18 25 -27 49 34
Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs
Prediction of 2010 Oct 4.0
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