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Updated: 2010 AUG 20, 04:03 UT
Event Rank : 67
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Oct 11 UT, the 59 km diameter asteroid (1469) Linzia will occult a 9.7 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a path across Queensland, western New South Wales and western Victoria, running from Mackay to Warrnambool.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.6 mag to 14.3 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
151 15 13 -18 4 5 14 18 6 44 285 -63 151 37 25 -18 12 23 150 53 12 -17 55 48 152 17 25 -18 27 8 150 14 27 -17 41 2
150 42 15 -18 59 41 14 18 19 45 286 -63 151 4 30 -19 8 1 150 20 10 -18 51 21 151 44 37 -19 22 51 149 41 20 -18 36 30
150 10 6 -19 55 31 14 18 32 45 288 -62 150 32 26 -20 3 54 149 47 58 -19 47 8 151 12 40 -20 18 50 149 9 0 -19 32 12
149 38 46 -20 51 37 14 18 44 45 289 -61 150 1 11 -21 0 3 149 16 32 -20 43 11 150 41 34 -21 15 4 148 37 26 -20 28 9
149 8 13 -21 48 0 14 18 57 45 290 -60 149 30 44 -21 56 29 148 45 53 -21 39 30 150 11 18 -22 11 36 148 6 36 -21 24 23
148 38 25 -22 44 41 14 19 10 45 291 -59 149 1 3 -22 53 14 148 15 59 -22 36 8 149 41 51 -23 8 27 147 36 31 -22 20 55
148 9 23 -23 41 41 14 19 23 45 292 -59 148 32 9 -23 50 18 147 46 49 -23 33 5 149 13 11 -24 5 37 147 7 7 -23 17 45
147 41 6 -24 39 3 14 19 36 45 294 -58 148 4 1 -24 47 43 147 18 23 -24 30 22 148 45 18 -25 3 10 146 38 26 -24 14 56
147 13 32 -25 36 46 14 19 48 45 295 -57 147 36 37 -25 45 31 146 50 40 -25 28 2 148 18 13 -26 1 4 146 10 26 -25 12 29
146 46 43 -26 34 54 14 20 1 45 296 -56 147 9 58 -26 43 42 146 23 39 -26 26 5 147 51 54 -26 59 24 145 43 7 -26 10 25
146 20 37 -27 33 27 14 20 14 45 297 -55 146 44 4 -27 42 20 145 57 22 -27 24 34 147 26 22 -27 58 9 145 16 29 -27 8 46
145 55 14 -28 32 27 14 20 27 45 298 -54 146 18 55 -28 41 24 145 31 46 -28 23 29 147 1 38 -28 57 22 144 50 31 -28 7 33
145 30 36 -29 31 55 14 20 40 44 300 -53 145 54 31 -29 40 58 145 6 54 -29 22 53 146 37 40 -29 57 5 144 25 14 -29 6 48
145 6 42 -30 31 55 14 20 52 44 301 -52 145 30 53 -30 41 3 144 42 45 -30 22 47 146 14 31 -30 57 19 144 0 39 -30 6 33
144 43 34 -31 32 27 14 21 5 44 302 -51 145 8 2 -31 41 40 144 19 19 -31 23 13 145 52 12 -31 58 6 143 36 45 -31 6 49
144 21 11 -32 33 33 14 21 18 44 303 -50 144 45 59 -32 42 53 143 56 39 -32 24 14 145 30 43 -32 59 30 143 13 33 -32 7 40
143 59 37 -33 35 17 14 21 31 43 304 -49 144 24 44 -33 44 43 143 34 45 -33 25 52 145 10 6 -34 1 31 142 51 4 -33 9 7
143 38 52 -34 37 40 14 21 44 43 305 -48 144 4 21 -34 47 13 143 13 38 -34 28 8 144 50 24 -35 4 12 142 29 21 -34 11 12
143 18 58 -35 40 46 14 21 56 42 306 -47 143 44 52 -35 50 25 142 53 21 -35 31 7 144 31 39 -36 7 37 142 8 23 -35 13 58
142 59 58 -36 44 36 14 22 9 42 307 -46 143 26 18 -36 54 22 142 33 55 -36 34 50 144 13 53 -37 11 48 141 48 14 -36 17 28
142 41 55 -37 49 14 14 22 22 41 308 -45 143 8 43 -37 59 9 142 15 24 -37 39 20 143 57 12 -38 16 49 141 28 55 -37 21 44
142 24 52 -38 54 43 14 22 35 41 309 -44 142 52 11 -39 4 46 141 57 51 -38 44 41 143 41 38 -39 22 42 141 10 30 -38 26 51
142 8 53 -40 1 8 14 22 48 40 310 -43 142 36 47 -40 11 20 141 41 19 -39 50 57 143 27 16 -40 29 31 140 53 2 -39 32 51
141 54 4 -41 8 31 14 23 1 40 311 -42 142 22 35 -41 18 53 141 25 54 -40 58 11 143 14 14 -41 37 22 140 36 35 -40 39 48
141 40 31 -42 16 58 14 23 13 39 312 -41 142 9 43 -42 27 30 141 11 41 -42 6 27 143 2 39 -42 46 17 140 21 14 -41 47 46
141 28 21 -43 26 33 14 23 26 38 313 -40 141 58 18 -43 37 16 140 58 47 -43 15 51 142 52 38 -43 56 23 140 7 5 -42 56 51
141 17 42 -44 37 21 14 23 39 38 314 -38 141 48 29 -44 48 16 140 47 19 -44 26 28 142 44 22 -45 7 45 139 54 15 -44 7 7
Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs
Prediction of 2010 Aug 20.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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