|
|
Updated: 2010 OCT 03, 19:08 UT
Event Rank : 87
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Oct 08 UT, the 181 km diameter asteroid (624) Hektor will occult a 11.5 mag star in the constellation Auriga for observers along a wide, significant uncertainty path across Queensland, western New South Wales and very low in the north over western Victoria.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.7 mag to 15.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 19.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
141 4 36 -38 0 0 16 57 0 3 26 -33 142 13 21 139 55 23 143 31 10 138 35 50
141 41 15 -37 0 0 16 57 1 4 26 -34 142 48 50 140 33 12 144 5 23 139 15 2
142 16 43 -36 0 0 16 57 2 5 26 -34 143 23 14 141 9 47 144 38 34 139 52 56
142 51 6 -35 0 0 16 57 3 6 25 -34 143 56 35 141 45 13 145 10 48 140 29 35
143 24 28 -34 0 0 16 57 4 7 25 -35 144 28 59 142 19 34 145 42 8 141 5 6
143 56 52 -33 0 0 16 57 6 8 25 -35 145 0 29 142 52 54 146 12 36 141 39 32
144 28 22 -32 0 0 16 57 8 9 24 -35 145 31 7 143 25 17 146 42 17 142 12 57
144 59 1 -31 0 0 16 57 10 10 24 -35 146 0 57 143 56 47 147 11 12 142 45 25
145 28 52 -30 0 0 16 57 12 11 24 -35 146 30 2 144 27 25 147 39 26 143 16 58
145 57 58 -29 0 0 16 57 15 12 24 -36 146 58 24 144 57 16 148 6 59 143 47 41
146 26 21 -28 0 0 16 57 18 14 23 -36 147 26 6 145 26 21 148 33 54 144 17 37
146 54 5 -27 0 0 16 57 21 15 23 -36 147 53 10 145 54 45 149 0 15 144 46 47
147 21 10 -26 0 0 16 57 24 16 23 -36 148 19 38 146 22 28 149 26 1 145 15 14
147 47 39 -25 0 0 16 57 28 17 23 -36 148 45 32 146 49 33 149 51 17 145 43 1
148 13 35 -24 0 0 16 57 32 18 23 -36 149 10 55 147 16 2 150 16 2 146 10 10
148 38 58 -23 0 0 16 57 36 19 22 -36 149 35 47 147 41 58 150 40 20 146 36 43
149 3 52 -22 0 0 16 57 40 20 22 -36 150 0 11 148 7 22 151 4 11 147 2 41
149 28 17 -21 0 0 16 57 44 21 22 -37 150 24 8 148 32 15 151 27 37 147 28 8
149 52 16 -20 0 0 16 57 49 22 22 -37 150 47 41 148 56 40 151 50 40 147 53 4
150 15 49 -19 0 0 16 57 54 23 22 -37 151 10 49 149 20 38 152 13 21 148 17 32
150 38 58 -18 0 0 16 57 59 24 22 -37 151 33 35 149 44 11 152 35 41 148 41 32
Uncertainty in time = +/- 12 secs
Prediction of 2010 Oct 4.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]