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Updated: 2010 AUG 10, 00:54 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Oct 04 UT, the 170 km diameter asteroid (96) Aegle will occult a 12.5 mag star in the constellation Perseus for observers along a path across south-eastern Australia, beginning low in the north-west over eastern Victoria and south-eastern New South Wales and running across central Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.0 mag to 13.0 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 18.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
150 49 0 -40 0 0 18 47 4 3 331 -8 152 9 40 149 28 5 152 56 21 148 41 1
150 2 19 -39 0 0 18 47 5 5 331 -9 151 22 0 148 42 22 152 8 6 147 55 51
149 15 56 -38 0 0 18 47 6 6 332 -10 150 34 41 147 56 52 151 20 15 147 10 52
148 29 46 -37 0 0 18 47 8 7 332 -11 149 47 41 147 11 34 150 32 44 146 26 2
147 43 49 -36 0 0 18 47 10 8 333 -11 149 0 55 146 26 23 149 45 31 145 41 18
146 58 0 -35 0 0 18 47 13 9 333 -12 148 14 22 145 41 17 148 58 31 144 56 37
146 12 16 -34 0 0 18 47 16 10 334 -13 147 27 57 144 56 14 148 11 42 144 11 57
145 26 36 -33 0 0 18 47 19 12 334 -14 146 41 39 144 11 11 147 25 1 143 27 15
144 40 57 -32 0 0 18 47 22 13 335 -15 145 55 24 143 26 6 146 38 26 142 42 29
143 55 15 -31 0 0 18 47 26 14 335 -16 145 9 11 142 40 56 145 51 53 141 57 37
143 9 30 -30 0 0 18 47 30 15 335 -17 144 22 56 141 55 39 145 5 21 141 12 36
142 23 38 -29 0 0 18 47 35 16 336 -18 143 36 37 141 10 12 144 18 46 140 27 24
141 37 37 -28 0 0 18 47 39 17 336 -18 142 50 13 140 24 34 143 32 7 139 41 59
140 51 25 -27 0 0 18 47 45 19 337 -19 142 3 39 139 38 43 142 45 21 138 56 19
140 4 59 -26 0 0 18 47 50 20 337 -20 141 16 55 138 52 35 141 58 25 138 10 21
139 18 18 -25 0 0 18 47 56 21 337 -21 140 29 58 138 6 9 141 11 18 137 24 3
138 31 19 -24 0 0 18 48 2 22 338 -22 139 42 45 137 19 23 140 23 57 136 37 24
137 44 0 -23 0 0 18 48 9 23 338 -23 138 55 14 136 32 13 139 36 20 135 50 20
136 56 18 -22 0 0 18 48 16 25 339 -24 138 7 24 135 44 39 138 48 23 135 2 49
136 8 11 -21 0 0 18 48 23 26 339 -25 137 19 11 134 56 37 138 0 6 134 14 50
135 19 37 -20 0 0 18 48 31 27 340 -26 136 30 33 134 8 6 137 11 26 133 26 20
134 30 34 -19 0 0 18 48 39 28 340 -27 135 41 28 133 19 2 136 22 20 132 37 15
133 40 58 -18 0 0 18 48 47 29 340 -28 134 51 53 132 29 24 135 32 45 131 47 34
132 50 47 -17 0 0 18 48 56 30 341 -29 134 1 47 131 39 8 134 42 40 130 57 14
131 59 59 -16 0 0 18 49 5 32 341 -30 133 11 5 130 48 11 133 52 1 130 6 13
131 8 30 -15 0 0 18 49 15 33 342 -31 132 19 46 129 56 32 133 0 47 129 14 26
130 16 19 -14 0 0 18 49 25 34 342 -32 131 27 46 129 4 6 132 8 53 128 21 52
129 23 21 -13 0 0 18 49 35 35 343 -33 130 35 3 128 10 52 131 16 18 127 28 27
128 29 33 -12 0 0 18 49 46 36 344 -34 129 41 34 127 16 44 130 22 58 126 34 7
127 34 53 -11 0 0 18 49 57 38 344 -35 128 47 14 126 21 41 129 28 50 125 38 49
126 39 16 -10 0 0 18 50 9 39 345 -36 127 52 2 125 25 37 128 33 51 124 42 29
Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs
Prediction of 2010 Jul 12.0
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