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Updated: 2010 AUG 09, 23:20 UT
Event Rank : 84
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Sep 22 UT, the 76 km diameter asteroid (893) Leopoldina will occult a 13.1 mag star in the constellation Cetus for observers along a path across eastern Australia from Rockhampton in Queensland over Bourke in NSW to Robinvale and Portland in Victoria.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.8 mag to 13.1 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
152 45 31 -20 19 13 18 0 1 38 268 -24 153 18 13 -20 26 44 152 13 15 -20 11 35 153 59 25 -20 35 54 151 33 51 -20 1 58
152 1 3 -21 16 13 18 0 11 39 269 -24 152 33 37 -21 23 53 151 28 55 -21 8 27 153 14 38 -21 33 14 150 49 39 -20 58 40
151 17 53 -22 13 1 18 0 21 39 270 -25 151 50 21 -22 20 49 150 45 50 -22 5 7 152 31 14 -22 30 20 150 6 40 -21 55 10
150 35 56 -23 9 38 18 0 31 40 271 -25 151 8 20 -23 17 34 150 3 57 -23 1 36 151 49 8 -23 27 15 149 24 51 -22 51 30
149 55 8 -24 6 6 18 0 40 40 272 -26 150 27 31 -24 14 10 149 23 10 -23 57 57 151 8 15 -24 24 0 148 44 6 -23 47 41
149 15 25 -25 2 28 18 0 50 41 273 -26 149 47 47 -25 10 39 148 43 27 -24 54 11 150 28 32 -25 20 39 148 4 22 -24 43 46
148 36 42 -25 58 44 18 1 0 41 274 -26 149 9 7 -26 7 3 148 4 43 -25 50 20 149 49 53 -26 17 12 147 25 35 -25 39 47
147 58 58 -26 54 57 18 1 10 42 275 -26 148 31 25 -27 3 23 147 26 55 -26 46 26 149 12 16 -27 13 41 146 47 42 -26 35 44
147 22 8 -27 51 9 18 1 20 42 276 -27 147 54 41 -27 59 41 146 50 0 -27 42 30 148 35 37 -28 10 9 146 10 41 -27 31 40
146 46 10 -28 47 20 18 1 30 43 277 -27 147 18 50 -28 56 0 146 13 55 -28 38 34 147 59 54 -29 6 36 145 34 28 -28 27 35
146 11 2 -29 43 32 18 1 40 43 279 -27 146 43 50 -29 52 19 145 38 39 -29 34 40 147 25 5 -30 3 4 144 59 2 -29 23 32
145 36 42 -30 39 47 18 1 50 43 280 -27 146 9 40 -30 48 41 145 4 9 -30 30 48 146 51 7 -30 59 36 144 24 21 -30 19 32
145 3 8 -31 36 7 18 2 0 44 281 -27 145 36 17 -31 45 8 144 30 24 -31 27 1 146 17 59 -31 56 11 143 50 22 -31 15 36
144 30 18 -32 32 33 18 2 10 44 282 -28 145 3 40 -32 41 41 143 57 21 -32 23 19 145 45 38 -32 52 53 143 17 4 -32 11 46
143 58 11 -33 29 5 18 2 19 44 283 -28 144 31 48 -33 38 21 143 25 0 -33 19 45 145 14 5 -33 49 41 142 44 25 -33 8 2
143 26 46 -34 25 47 18 2 29 44 285 -28 144 0 39 -34 35 9 142 53 19 -34 16 19 144 43 16 -34 46 39 142 12 24 -34 4 28
142 56 1 -35 22 38 18 2 39 44 286 -28 143 30 12 -35 32 8 142 22 17 -35 13 3 144 13 13 -35 43 47 141 41 1 -35 1 3
142 25 57 -36 19 42 18 2 49 44 287 -28 143 0 27 -36 29 19 141 51 52 -36 10 0 143 43 53 -36 41 7 141 10 13 -35 57 50
141 56 31 -37 16 59 18 2 59 44 288 -28 142 31 23 -37 26 43 141 22 6 -37 7 9 143 15 17 -37 38 40 140 40 1 -36 54 50
141 27 44 -38 14 30 18 3 9 44 290 -28 142 3 0 -38 24 22 140 52 56 -38 4 33 142 47 24 -38 36 29 140 10 24 -37 52 5
140 59 36 -39 12 18 18 3 19 44 291 -27 141 35 17 -39 22 18 140 24 22 -39 2 13 142 20 14 -39 34 34 139 41 20 -38 49 35
140 32 6 -40 10 24 18 3 29 44 292 -27 141 8 15 -40 20 32 139 56 25 -40 0 11 141 53 48 -40 32 58 139 12 51 -39 47 23
140 5 14 -41 8 49 18 3 39 44 293 -27 140 41 54 -41 19 5 139 29 5 -40 58 28 141 28 5 -41 31 42 138 44 55 -40 45 30
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
Prediction of 2010 Aug 9.0
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