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Updated: 2010 JUL 21, 02:00 UT
Event Rank : 37
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Sep 19 UT, the 50 km diameter asteroid (186) Celuta will occult a 13.4 mag star in the constellation Taurus for observers along a narrow path across Australia, from Kangaroo Island across eastern South Australia and western Queensland to Princess Charlotte Bay, and across New Guinea near Lae. Adelaide is within the osl
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.5 mag to 12.8 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
135 55 20 -41 0 0 19 2 33 21 1 -21 136 15 18 135 35 24 137 26 59 134 24 16
136 10 30 -40 0 0 19 2 38 22 1 -21 136 30 11 135 50 51 137 40 53 134 40 42
136 25 50 -39 0 0 19 2 43 23 0 -21 136 45 16 136 6 27 137 55 0 134 57 14
136 41 20 -38 0 0 19 2 49 24 0 -21 137 0 31 136 22 12 138 9 22 135 13 52
136 57 1 -37 0 0 19 2 55 25 360 -21 137 15 57 136 38 6 138 23 57 135 30 37
137 12 51 -36 0 0 19 3 1 26 360 -21 137 31 34 136 54 10 138 38 47 135 47 29
137 28 52 -35 0 0 19 3 7 27 359 -21 137 47 22 137 10 24 138 53 50 136 4 28
137 45 4 -34 0 0 19 3 14 28 359 -21 138 3 23 137 26 48 139 9 7 136 21 35
138 1 28 -33 0 0 19 3 21 29 359 -21 138 19 35 137 43 23 139 24 39 136 38 50
138 18 3 -32 0 0 19 3 28 30 358 -21 138 35 59 138 0 8 139 40 25 136 56 13
138 34 49 -31 0 0 19 3 35 31 358 -21 138 52 35 138 17 5 139 56 26 137 13 46
138 51 48 -30 0 0 19 3 43 32 358 -21 139 9 25 138 34 13 140 12 42 137 31 28
139 9 0 -29 0 0 19 3 50 33 357 -21 139 26 28 138 51 33 140 29 13 137 49 20
139 26 24 -28 0 0 19 3 58 34 357 -21 139 43 44 139 9 6 140 45 59 138 7 23
139 44 2 -27 0 0 19 4 7 35 357 -21 140 1 14 139 26 52 141 3 2 138 25 37
140 1 54 -26 0 0 19 4 15 36 356 -21 140 18 59 139 44 51 141 20 21 138 44 2
140 20 1 -25 0 0 19 4 24 37 356 -20 140 36 59 140 3 4 141 37 56 139 2 39
140 38 22 -24 0 0 19 4 33 37 355 -20 140 55 14 140 21 32 141 55 49 139 21 30
140 56 59 -23 0 0 19 4 42 38 355 -20 141 13 45 140 40 15 142 14 0 139 40 33
141 15 52 -22 0 0 19 4 51 39 354 -20 141 32 32 140 59 13 142 32 29 139 59 50
141 35 1 -21 0 0 19 5 1 40 354 -20 141 51 37 141 18 27 142 51 16 140 19 22
141 54 28 -20 0 0 19 5 10 41 353 -19 142 11 0 141 37 59 143 10 24 140 39 10
142 14 14 -19 0 0 19 5 20 42 353 -19 142 30 41 141 57 48 143 29 51 140 59 13
142 34 17 -18 0 0 19 5 30 43 352 -19 142 50 41 142 17 55 143 49 39 141 19 33
142 54 40 -17 0 0 19 5 41 44 352 -19 143 11 1 142 38 21 144 9 48 141 40 11
143 15 24 -16 0 0 19 5 51 45 351 -18 143 31 42 142 59 8 144 30 20 142 1 6
143 36 29 -15 0 0 19 6 2 46 350 -18 143 52 45 143 20 14 144 51 15 142 22 21
143 57 55 -14 0 0 19 6 13 47 350 -18 144 14 10 143 41 43 145 12 34 142 43 56
144 19 45 -13 0 0 19 6 24 48 349 -17 144 35 58 144 3 34 145 34 18 143 5 52
144 41 58 -12 0 0 19 6 36 49 348 -17 144 58 10 144 25 48 145 56 27 143 28 10
145 4 36 -11 0 0 19 6 47 50 348 -17 145 20 48 144 48 27 146 19 4 143 50 51
145 27 41 -10 0 0 19 6 59 50 347 -16 145 43 52 145 11 31 146 42 8 144 13 56
145 51 12 - 9 0 0 19 7 11 51 346 -16 146 7 24 145 35 2 147 5 42 144 37 26
146 15 11 - 8 0 0 19 7 23 52 345 -15 146 31 25 145 59 1 147 29 46 145 1 22
146 39 41 - 7 0 0 19 7 35 53 344 -15 146 55 55 146 23 28 147 54 22 145 25 46
147 4 41 - 6 0 0 19 7 48 54 343 -14 147 20 57 146 48 27 148 19 31 145 50 38
147 30 13 - 5 0 0 19 8 1 55 342 -14 147 46 32 147 13 57 148 45 14 146 16 1
147 56 19 - 4 0 0 19 8 13 55 341 -13 148 12 41 147 40 1 149 11 34 146 41 55
148 23 1 - 3 0 0 19 8 26 56 339 -13 148 39 26 148 6 39 149 38 31 147 8 23
148 50 20 - 2 0 0 19 8 40 57 338 -12 149 6 48 148 33 54 150 6 8 147 35 25
149 18 17 - 1 0 0 19 8 53 58 337 -12 149 34 50 149 1 47 150 34 26 148 3 4
149 46 56 0 0 0 19 9 7 58 335 -11 150 3 33 149 30 21 151 3 28 148 31 21
Uncertainty in time = +/- 12 secs
Prediction of 2010 Jul 21.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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