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Updated: 2010 JUL 21, 01:41 UT
Event Rank : 5
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Sep 16 UT, the 36 km diameter asteroid (32496) 2000 WX182 will occult a 10.0 mag star in the constellation Indus for observers along a narrow path of significant uncertainty across the South Island of New Zealand near Invercargill, and across Australia from Grafton to Cape York. The one sigma limit includes most of the South Island of New Zealand, the north-east half of New South Wales, and most of Queensland (exccluding only the far west).
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 7.2 mag to 17.1 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.1 seconds.
This update is based on historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
135 2 5 4 0 0 10 18 58 31 164 -21 135 12 47 134 51 23 139 40 37 130 27 0
135 27 0 3 0 0 10 18 51 32 164 -21 135 37 42 135 16 19 140 5 38 130 51 59
135 52 7 2 0 0 10 18 43 34 164 -22 136 2 49 135 41 25 140 30 56 131 17 3
136 17 25 1 0 0 10 18 36 35 164 -22 136 28 7 136 6 43 140 56 31 131 42 13
136 42 56 0 0 0 10 18 28 36 164 -23 136 53 39 136 32 13 141 22 25 132 7 30
137 8 40 - 1 0 0 10 18 20 37 164 -23 137 19 24 136 57 56 141 48 38 132 32 55
137 34 39 - 2 0 0 10 18 12 38 164 -23 137 45 24 137 23 54 142 15 12 132 58 29
138 0 53 - 3 0 0 10 18 3 39 164 -24 138 11 40 137 50 7 142 42 8 133 24 12
138 27 24 - 4 0 0 10 17 54 40 164 -24 138 38 12 138 16 36 143 9 27 133 50 6
138 54 13 - 5 0 0 10 17 45 41 164 -25 139 5 3 138 43 23 143 37 10 134 16 12
139 21 20 - 6 0 0 10 17 36 42 164 -25 139 32 12 139 10 28 144 5 18 134 42 29
139 48 46 - 7 0 0 10 17 27 43 164 -26 139 59 41 139 37 52 144 33 52 135 9 1
140 16 34 - 8 0 0 10 17 17 44 164 -26 140 27 31 140 5 37 145 2 54 135 35 46
140 44 43 - 9 0 0 10 17 8 45 165 -26 140 55 43 140 33 43 145 32 25 136 2 47
141 13 16 -10 0 0 10 16 58 46 165 -27 141 24 19 141 2 13 146 2 27 136 30 5
141 42 13 -11 0 0 10 16 48 47 165 -27 141 53 20 141 31 7 146 33 1 136 57 41
142 11 36 -12 0 0 10 16 37 48 165 -28 142 22 47 142 0 26 147 4 8 137 25 35
142 41 26 -13 0 0 10 16 27 50 165 -28 142 52 41 142 30 12 147 35 51 137 53 49
143 11 45 -14 0 0 10 16 16 51 165 -28 143 23 4 143 0 27 148 8 10 138 22 25
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
144 0 0 -15 33 28 10 15 59 52 165 -29 -15 11 36 -15 55 19 - 5 48 46 -24 47 16
145 0 0 -17 26 17 10 15 38 54 165 -30 -17 4 49 -17 47 42 - 7 54 2 -26 30 8
146 0 0 -19 15 17 10 15 17 56 166 -30 -18 54 14 -19 36 17 - 9 55 8 -28 9 21
147 0 0 -21 0 29 10 14 56 58 166 -31 -20 39 51 -21 21 6 -11 52 5 -29 44 57
148 0 0 -22 41 58 10 14 35 60 166 -31 -22 21 44 -23 2 11 -13 44 57 -31 17 0
149 0 0 -24 19 47 10 14 15 62 167 -32 -23 59 56 -24 39 37 -15 33 46 -32 45 34
150 0 0 -25 54 0 10 13 55 63 167 -32 -25 34 31 -26 13 27 -17 18 37 -34 10 43
151 0 0 -27 24 41 10 13 35 65 168 -33 -27 5 34 -27 43 47 -18 59 37 -35 32 34
152 0 0 -28 51 57 10 13 16 67 169 -33 -28 33 12 -29 10 42 -20 36 50 -36 51 11
153 0 0 -30 15 54 10 12 57 68 169 -33 -29 57 28 -30 34 18 -22 10 23 -38 6 41
154 0 0 -31 36 36 10 12 38 70 170 -34 -31 18 31 -31 54 40 -23 40 23 -39 19 10
155 0 0 -32 54 10 10 12 20 71 171 -34 -32 36 24 -33 11 55 -25 6 56 -40 28 43
156 0 0 -34 8 43 10 12 2 72 173 -34 -33 51 16 -34 26 8 -26 30 9 -41 35 28
157 0 0 -35 20 20 10 11 45 74 174 -34 -35 3 11 -35 37 27 -27 50 9 -42 39 30
158 0 0 -36 29 8 10 11 28 75 176 -34 -36 12 17 -36 45 57 -29 7 2 -43 40 55
159 0 0 -37 35 12 10 11 11 76 178 -35 -37 18 39 -37 51 45 -30 20 56 -44 39 50
160 0 0 -38 38 40 10 10 55 77 181 -35 -38 22 23 -38 54 56 -31 31 57 -45 36 20
161 0 0 -39 39 37 10 10 40 78 184 -35 -39 23 36 -39 55 37 -32 40 11 -46 30 32
162 0 0 -40 38 9 10 10 25 79 187 -35 -40 22 23 -40 53 53 -33 45 44 -47 22 30
163 0 0 -41 34 21 10 10 10 79 191 -35 -41 18 51 -41 49 50 -34 48 44 -48 12 21
164 0 0 -42 28 19 10 9 56 80 195 -35 -42 13 3 -42 43 34 -35 49 15 -49 0 9
165 0 0 -43 20 8 10 9 42 81 200 -35 -43 5 7 -43 35 9 -36 47 24 -49 46 1
166 0 0 -44 9 54 10 9 28 81 206 -35 -43 55 6 -44 24 41 -37 43 17 -50 30 0
167 0 0 -44 57 41 10 9 15 81 212 -35 -44 43 7 -45 12 15 -38 36 58 -51 12 12
168 0 0 -45 43 35 10 9 2 82 219 -35 -45 29 13 -45 57 56 -39 28 33 -51 52 41
169 0 0 -46 27 39 10 8 50 82 226 -35 -46 13 30 -46 41 48 -40 18 7 -52 31 31
170 0 0 -47 9 59 10 8 37 82 232 -35 -46 56 2 -47 23 56 -41 5 44 -53 8 47
171 0 0 -47 50 38 10 8 26 81 238 -35 -47 36 53 -48 4 24 -41 51 30 -53 44 32
172 0 0 -48 29 41 10 8 14 81 244 -35 -48 16 6 -48 43 15 -42 35 28 -54 18 51
173 0 0 -49 7 11 10 8 3 81 249 -35 -48 53 47 -49 20 34 -43 17 44 -54 51 46
174 0 0 -49 43 12 10 7 52 81 253 -35 -49 29 58 -49 56 25 -43 58 20 -55 23 22
Uncertainty in time = +/- 74 secs
Prediction of 2010 Apr 5.0
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