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Updated: 2010 JUL 20, 21:27 UT
Event Rank : 78
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Aug 27 UT, the 222 km diameter asteroid (48) Doris will occult a 13.3 mag star in the constellation Scutum for observers along a path passing over Papua New Guinea, then into Queensland near Cairns. The path moves south through western NSW, and passes near Adelaide and Melbourne.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.4 mag to 12.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 62.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
156 2 28 11 35 29 12 20 39 44 235 -61 157 18 0 11 32 43 154 48 18 11 38 53 159 7 51 11 29 55 153 5 6 11 44 43
155 14 37 10 6 23 12 21 19 45 236 -62 156 29 8 10 3 21 154 1 22 10 10 2 158 17 23 10 0 6 152 19 23 10 16 10
154 29 20 8 38 42 12 22 0 46 237 -62 155 42 59 8 35 25 153 16 53 8 42 33 157 29 52 8 31 48 151 35 56 8 48 58
153 46 22 7 12 17 12 22 40 47 238 -63 154 59 16 7 8 48 152 34 37 7 16 20 156 44 59 7 4 50 150 54 33 7 22 59
153 5 30 5 47 2 12 23 20 49 239 -63 154 17 46 5 43 21 151 54 21 5 51 15 156 2 28 5 39 4 150 15 3 5 58 7
152 26 34 4 22 49 12 24 1 50 240 -64 153 38 17 4 18 57 151 15 54 4 27 12 155 22 8 4 14 25 149 37 16 4 34 15
151 49 23 2 59 33 12 24 41 51 241 -64 153 0 39 2 55 32 150 39 9 3 4 4 154 43 48 2 50 44 149 1 4 3 11 19
151 13 51 1 37 8 12 25 21 52 242 -64 152 24 45 1 32 59 150 3 58 1 41 47 154 7 17 1 27 58 148 26 19 1 49 12
150 39 50 0 15 30 12 26 2 53 244 -65 151 50 25 0 11 13 149 30 13 0 20 16 153 32 29 0 6 0 147 52 56 0 27 50
150 7 14 - 1 5 26 12 26 42 54 245 -65 151 17 35 - 1 9 50 148 57 50 - 1 0 33 152 59 16 - 1 15 14 147 20 48 - 0 52 50
149 35 58 - 2 25 43 12 27 22 55 246 -65 150 46 8 - 2 30 14 148 26 43 - 2 20 45 152 27 32 - 2 35 49 146 49 52 - 2 12 54
149 5 57 - 3 45 27 12 28 2 55 248 -65 150 16 1 - 3 50 4 147 56 48 - 3 40 22 151 57 13 - 3 55 48 146 20 4 - 3 32 24
148 37 7 - 5 4 40 12 28 43 56 250 -65 149 47 8 - 5 9 22 147 28 0 - 4 59 30 151 28 14 - 5 15 15 145 51 19 - 4 51 25
148 9 25 - 6 23 25 12 29 23 57 251 -65 149 19 26 - 6 28 13 147 0 18 - 6 18 10 151 0 31 - 6 34 14 145 23 34 - 6 9 59
147 42 48 - 7 41 46 12 30 3 57 253 -65 148 52 52 - 7 46 39 146 33 37 - 7 36 27 150 34 1 - 7 52 47 144 56 47 - 7 28 9
147 17 14 - 8 59 46 12 30 44 58 255 -65 148 27 24 - 9 4 43 146 7 56 - 8 54 22 150 8 41 - 9 10 58 144 30 56 - 8 45 58
146 52 39 -10 17 28 12 31 24 59 257 -65 148 3 0 -10 22 29 145 43 12 -10 11 59 149 44 29 -10 28 50 144 5 58 -10 3 30
146 29 4 -11 34 53 12 32 4 59 259 -65 147 39 37 -11 39 59 145 19 23 -11 29 21 149 21 24 -11 46 26 143 41 51 -11 20 47
146 6 25 -12 52 6 12 32 45 59 261 -64 147 17 14 -12 57 16 144 56 29 -12 46 31 148 59 23 -13 3 49 143 18 34 -12 37 51
145 44 42 -14 9 9 12 33 25 60 263 -64 146 55 50 -14 14 22 144 34 28 -14 3 30 148 38 26 -14 21 0 142 56 7 -13 54 45
145 23 55 -15 26 4 12 34 5 60 266 -64 146 35 24 -15 31 20 144 13 19 -15 20 21 148 18 31 -15 38 3 142 34 28 -15 11 32
145 4 2 -16 42 53 12 34 46 60 268 -63 146 15 56 -16 48 13 143 53 1 -16 37 8 147 59 39 -16 54 59 142 13 35 -16 28 13
144 45 3 -17 59 40 12 35 26 61 270 -63 145 57 26 -18 5 2 143 33 35 -17 53 51 147 41 49 -18 11 53 141 53 30 -17 44 52
144 26 59 -19 16 26 12 36 6 61 273 -62 145 39 53 -19 21 51 143 14 59 -19 10 34 147 25 2 -19 28 45 141 34 12 -19 1 31
144 9 50 -20 33 13 12 36 46 61 275 -62 145 23 18 -20 38 41 142 57 16 -20 27 19 147 9 19 -20 45 38 141 15 41 -20 18 12
143 53 36 -21 50 5 12 37 27 61 277 -61 145 7 43 -21 55 35 142 40 24 -21 44 8 146 54 39 -22 2 35 140 57 56 -21 34 57
143 38 18 -23 7 3 12 38 7 60 279 -61 144 53 7 -23 12 36 142 24 24 -23 1 4 146 41 5 -23 19 38 140 41 0 -22 51 49
143 23 57 -24 24 11 12 38 47 60 282 -60 144 39 33 -24 29 45 142 9 19 -24 18 9 146 28 39 -24 36 50 140 24 51 -24 8 50
143 10 36 -25 41 29 12 39 28 60 284 -60 144 27 3 -25 47 5 141 55 8 -25 35 26 146 17 22 -25 54 12 140 9 33 -25 26 3
142 58 17 -26 59 2 12 40 8 60 286 -59 144 15 38 -27 4 39 141 41 55 -26 52 56 146 7 17 -27 11 48 139 55 6 -26 43 30
142 47 0 -28 16 51 12 40 48 59 288 -58 144 5 21 -28 22 30 141 29 41 -28 10 43 145 58 28 -28 29 39 139 41 31 -28 1 14
142 36 51 -29 34 59 12 41 29 59 290 -58 143 56 16 -29 40 39 141 18 28 -29 28 50 145 50 58 -29 47 49 139 28 52 -29 19 17
142 27 52 -30 53 28 12 42 9 58 292 -57 143 48 27 -30 59 9 141 8 21 -30 47 18 145 44 52 -31 6 19 139 17 10 -30 37 42
142 20 7 -32 12 23 12 42 49 58 294 -56 143 41 58 -32 18 4 140 59 22 -32 6 11 145 40 15 -32 25 13 139 6 30 -31 56 32
142 13 41 -33 31 44 12 43 30 57 296 -56 143 36 55 -33 37 25 140 51 35 -33 25 31 145 37 13 -33 44 34 138 56 53 -33 15 50
142 8 39 -34 51 35 12 44 10 57 298 -55 143 33 23 -34 57 17 140 45 7 -34 45 22 145 35 53 -35 4 23 138 48 25 -34 35 39
142 5 8 -36 12 0 12 44 50 56 299 -54 143 31 30 -36 17 41 140 40 2 -36 5 47 145 36 23 -36 24 45 138 41 10 -35 56 1
142 3 17 -37 33 2 12 45 30 55 301 -53 143 31 23 -37 38 42 140 36 27 -37 26 48 145 38 53 -37 45 42 138 35 15 -37 17 2
142 3 12 -38 54 44 12 46 11 54 302 -52 143 33 14 -39 0 22 140 34 31 -38 48 31 145 43 33 -39 7 17 138 30 46 -38 38 43
142 5 5 -40 17 9 12 46 51 53 304 -52 143 37 13 -40 22 45 140 34 22 -40 10 57 145 50 38 -40 29 35 138 27 51 -40 1 9
142 9 9 -41 40 22 12 47 31 52 305 -51 143 43 34 -41 45 55 140 36 13 -41 34 12 146 0 22 -41 52 37 138 26 39 -41 24 23
142 15 36 -43 4 27 12 48 12 52 306 -50 143 52 32 -43 9 55 140 40 14 -42 58 19 146 13 4 -43 16 29 138 27 22 -42 48 31
142 24 45 -44 29 28 12 48 52 50 307 -49 144 4 27 -44 34 51 140 46 43 -44 23 23 146 29 4 -44 41 14 138 30 12 -44 13 37
142 36 56 -45 55 29 12 49 32 49 308 -48 144 19 41 -46 0 46 140 55 58 -45 49 29 146 48 50 -46 6 55 138 35 26 -45 39 46
142 52 33 -47 22 36 12 50 13 48 309 -47 144 38 41 -47 27 44 141 8 19 -47 16 42 147 12 51 -47 33 37 138 43 21 -47 7 3
Uncertainty in time = +/- 45 secs
Prediction of 2010 Jul 21.0
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