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Updated: 2010 JUL 20, 21:20 UT
Event Rank : 51
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Aug 26 UT, the 141 km diameter asteroid (617) Patroclus will occult a 12.0 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a path centred across the South Island New Zealand. However, this is a binary asteroid system with 122km and 112km components separated by up to 680km. This may result in an event visible from anywhere in eastern parts of Australia, in addition to anywhere in New Zealand.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.6 mag to 15.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 25.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
176 12 56 -51 35 3 11 53 55 46 254 -49 174 58 24 -51 57 8 177 27 23 -51 11 58 171 51 32 -52 48 13 -179 26 49 -50 9 47
175 7 57 -50 39 30 11 54 17 47 254 -49 173 54 38 -51 0 56 176 21 13 -50 17 5 170 51 6 -51 50 28 179 24 16 -49 16 40
174 7 4 -49 43 8 11 54 39 47 254 -50 172 54 58 -50 3 59 175 19 10 -49 21 20 169 54 39 -50 52 6 178 19 31 -48 22 32
173 10 2 -48 46 1 11 55 2 47 253 -51 171 59 7 -49 6 19 174 21 0 -48 24 47 169 1 54 -49 53 8 177 18 41 -47 27 28
172 16 35 -47 48 12 11 55 24 48 252 -52 171 6 48 -48 8 0 173 26 26 -47 27 29 168 12 36 -48 53 38 176 21 32 -46 31 32
171 26 28 -46 49 43 11 55 46 48 252 -53 170 17 47 -47 9 3 172 35 16 -46 29 29 167 26 30 -47 53 36 175 27 50 -45 34 46
170 39 30 -45 50 36 11 56 9 48 251 -53 169 31 53 -46 9 31 171 47 16 -45 30 48 166 43 23 -46 53 5 174 37 23 -44 37 13
169 55 29 -44 50 53 11 56 31 48 250 -54 168 48 53 -45 9 25 171 2 14 -44 31 28 166 3 4 -45 52 6 173 50 0 -43 38 55
169 14 13 -43 50 35 11 56 53 48 250 -55 168 8 36 -44 8 47 170 20 2 -43 31 31 165 25 21 -44 50 38 173 5 32 -42 39 54
168 35 34 -42 49 42 11 57 15 48 249 -56 167 30 54 -43 7 36 169 40 28 -42 30 58 164 50 5 -43 48 44 172 23 48 -41 40 11
167 59 23 -41 48 16 11 57 38 48 248 -57 166 55 36 -42 5 53 169 3 25 -41 29 49 164 17 8 -42 46 22 171 44 39 -40 39 47
167 25 32 -40 46 17 11 58 0 48 247 -57 166 22 36 -41 3 39 168 28 43 -40 28 5 163 46 21 -41 43 33 171 7 59 -39 38 42
166 53 53 -39 43 44 11 58 22 48 246 -58 165 51 46 -40 0 53 167 56 17 -39 25 45 163 17 37 -40 40 17 170 33 39 -38 36 57
166 24 20 -38 40 38 11 58 45 48 245 -59 165 22 59 -38 57 36 167 25 59 -38 22 50 162 50 50 -39 36 34 170 1 34 -37 34 32
165 56 47 -37 36 58 11 59 7 47 244 -60 164 56 10 -37 53 46 166 57 44 -37 19 19 162 25 54 -38 32 22 169 31 37 -36 31 26
165 31 9 -36 32 43 11 59 29 47 243 -61 164 31 13 -36 49 24 166 31 25 -36 15 12 162 2 44 -37 27 41 169 3 44 -35 27 39
165 7 21 -35 27 52 11 59 52 47 242 -61 164 8 3 -35 44 27 166 7 0 -35 10 28 161 41 16 -36 22 30 168 37 49 -34 23 10
164 45 19 -34 22 25 12 0 14 47 241 -62 163 46 37 -34 38 56 165 44 22 -34 5 5 161 21 24 -35 16 48 168 13 49 -33 17 58
164 24 59 -33 16 20 12 0 36 46 240 -63 163 26 51 -33 32 48 165 23 30 -32 59 3 161 3 7 -34 10 33 167 51 40 -32 12 1
164 6 18 -32 9 35 12 0 59 46 239 -64 163 8 42 -32 26 2 165 4 19 -31 52 19 160 46 20 -33 3 43 167 31 18 -31 5 18
163 49 14 -31 2 9 12 1 21 45 238 -64 162 52 7 -31 18 36 164 46 47 -30 44 52 160 31 1 -31 56 18 167 12 42 -29 57 47
163 33 45 -29 53 59 12 1 43 45 237 -65 162 37 3 -30 10 28 164 30 52 -29 36 39 160 17 8 -30 48 15 166 55 50 -28 49 26
163 19 47 -28 45 3 12 2 5 44 236 -66 162 23 30 -29 1 37 164 16 33 -28 27 39 160 4 39 -29 39 32 166 40 39 -27 40 12
163 7 22 -27 35 18 12 2 28 44 235 -67 162 11 25 -27 51 58 164 3 47 -27 17 48 159 53 32 -28 30 6 166 27 9 -26 30 1
162 56 26 -26 24 42 12 2 50 43 234 -67 162 0 49 -26 41 30 163 52 34 -26 7 3 159 43 47 -27 19 54 166 15 20 -25 18 51
162 47 1 -25 13 11 12 3 12 43 234 -68 161 51 40 -25 30 8 163 42 55 -24 55 21 159 35 23 -26 8 55 166 5 12 -24 6 38
162 39 7 -24 0 41 12 3 35 42 233 -69 161 43 58 -24 17 50 163 34 49 -23 42 38 159 28 19 -24 57 3 165 56 45 -22 53 17
162 32 43 -22 47 8 12 3 57 41 232 -70 161 37 45 -23 4 31 163 28 17 -22 28 49 159 22 37 -23 44 16 165 50 1 -21 38 43
162 27 53 -21 32 27 12 4 19 40 231 -70 161 33 1 -21 50 7 163 23 21 -21 13 49 159 18 18 -22 30 29 165 45 2 -20 22 50
162 24 37 -20 16 32 12 4 42 40 230 -71 161 29 48 -20 34 32 163 20 4 -19 57 34 159 15 21 -21 15 37 165 41 52 -19 5 32
162 22 58 -18 59 18 12 5 4 39 229 -72 161 28 10 -19 17 41 163 18 28 -18 39 55 159 13 50 -19 59 36 165 40 34 -17 46 40
162 23 1 -17 40 37 12 5 26 38 229 -72 161 28 8 -17 59 27 163 18 38 -17 20 45 159 13 48 -18 42 19 165 41 14 -16 26 7
162 24 50 -16 20 21 12 5 48 37 228 -73 161 29 48 -16 39 41 163 20 38 -15 59 56 159 15 17 -17 23 40 165 43 59 -15 3 42
162 28 30 -14 58 21 12 6 11 36 227 -73 161 33 15 -15 18 16 163 24 36 -14 37 18 159 18 22 -16 3 31 165 48 58 -13 39 11
162 34 10 -13 34 26 12 6 33 35 227 -74 161 38 35 -13 55 1 163 30 39 -13 12 39 159 23 8 -14 41 43 165 56 21 -12 12 21
162 41 58 -12 8 22 12 6 55 34 226 -74 161 45 57 -12 29 44 163 38 58 -11 45 44 159 29 42 -13 18 6 166 6 22 -10 42 55
162 52 7 -10 39 54 12 7 18 32 225 -74 161 55 32 -11 2 10 163 49 46 -10 16 17 159 38 12 -11 52 27 166 19 20 - 9 10 29
163 4 50 - 9 8 44 12 7 40 31 225 -75 162 7 32 - 9 32 3 164 3 19 - 8 43 57 159 48 48 -10 24 34 166 35 36 - 7 34 36
163 20 26 - 7 34 28 12 8 2 30 224 -75 162 22 14 - 7 59 1 164 19 58 - 7 8 18 160 1 44 - 8 54 8 166 55 42 - 5 54 43
163 39 20 - 5 56 37 12 8 25 28 224 -75 162 39 59 - 6 22 38 164 40 11 - 5 28 48 160 17 14 - 7 20 50 167 20 17 - 4 10 2
164 2 3 - 4 14 34 12 8 47 27 223 -75 163 1 15 - 4 42 22 165 4 35 - 3 44 44 160 35 40 - 5 44 14 167 50 19 - 2 19 30
164 29 17 - 2 27 30 12 9 9 25 223 -74 163 26 38 - 2 57 30 165 34 0 - 1 55 10 160 57 27 - 4 3 47 168 27 11 - 0 21 39
165 2 2 - 0 34 18 12 9 32 23 222 -74 163 56 58 - 1 7 3 166 9 37 0 1 15 161 23 10 - 2 18 49 169 13 1 1 45 50
165 41 47 1 26 38 12 9 54 21 222 -73 164 33 28 0 50 17 166 53 17 2 6 29 161 53 37 - 0 28 25 170 11 27 4 6 43
166 30 46 3 37 47 12 10 16 19 222 -72 165 17 56 2 56 30 167 47 57 4 23 41 162 29 54 1 28 42 171 29 34 6 48 20
Uncertainty in time = +/- 33 secs
Prediction of 2010 Jul 21.0
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