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Updated: 2010 JUN 25, 18:50 UT
Event Rank : 91
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Jul 30 UT, the 79 km diameter asteroid (84) Klio will occult a 13.0 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a path across New Zealand, south of Dunedin, and along the eastern Australian coast from Coffs Harbour to Cairns.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by only 0.4 mag to 12.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 16.0 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
144 34 43 -10 0 0 12 58 4 54 222 -67 145 0 59 144 8 34 145 27 55 143 42 1
144 51 22 -11 0 0 12 57 43 55 223 -67 145 17 47 144 25 5 145 44 51 143 58 24
145 8 48 -12 0 0 12 57 21 55 225 -68 145 35 22 144 42 22 146 2 35 144 15 32
145 27 1 -13 0 0 12 56 59 56 226 -68 145 53 45 145 0 26 146 21 9 144 33 26
145 46 4 -14 0 0 12 56 37 56 227 -69 146 12 58 145 19 17 146 40 33 144 52 7
146 5 56 -15 0 0 12 56 15 57 228 -69 146 33 2 145 38 59 147 0 50 145 11 37
146 26 41 -16 0 0 12 55 53 57 230 -70 146 53 59 145 59 31 147 21 59 145 31 57
146 48 19 -17 0 0 12 55 30 58 231 -70 147 15 50 146 20 55 147 44 4 145 53 8
147 10 51 -18 0 0 12 55 8 58 232 -70 147 38 38 146 43 14 148 7 7 146 15 12
147 34 21 -19 0 0 12 54 45 59 234 -71 148 2 23 147 6 29 148 31 8 146 38 12
147 58 50 -20 0 0 12 54 22 59 235 -71 148 27 9 147 30 42 148 56 11 147 2 8
148 24 21 -21 0 0 12 53 58 59 237 -71 148 52 57 147 55 55 149 22 17 147 27 4
148 50 55 -22 0 0 12 53 35 59 239 -71 149 19 50 148 22 10 149 49 30 147 53 1
149 18 36 -23 0 0 12 53 12 60 240 -72 149 47 51 148 49 32 150 17 53 148 20 2
149 47 27 -24 0 0 12 52 48 60 242 -72 150 17 4 149 18 1 150 47 27 148 48 11
150 17 31 -25 0 0 12 52 24 60 243 -72 150 47 30 149 47 42 151 18 18 149 17 29
151 0 0 -26 20 46 12 51 52 60 246 -72 -25 23 55 -27 16 32 -24 24 42 -28 12 23
152 0 0 -28 7 33 12 51 9 60 249 -72 -27 13 29 -29 0 42 -26 17 17 -29 54 1
153 0 0 -29 46 47 12 50 28 60 251 -72 -28 55 7 -30 37 38 -28 1 31 -31 28 44
154 0 0 -31 19 17 12 49 50 60 254 -71 -30 29 45 -32 8 8 -29 38 26 -32 57 16
155 0 0 -32 45 48 12 49 14 59 256 -71 -31 58 8 -33 32 50 -31 8 50 -34 20 12
156 0 0 -34 6 53 12 48 40 59 258 -70 -33 20 55 -34 52 18 -32 33 25 -35 38 5
157 0 0 -35 23 4 12 48 8 58 260 -70 -34 38 37 -36 7 1 -33 52 44 -36 51 20
158 0 0 -36 34 46 12 47 37 58 261 -69 -35 51 42 -37 17 22 -35 7 17 -38 0 22
159 0 0 -37 42 21 12 47 8 57 263 -69 -37 0 33 -38 23 43 -36 17 28 -39 5 31
160 0 0 -38 46 9 12 46 40 57 264 -68 -38 5 31 -39 26 24 -37 23 39 -40 7 4
161 0 0 -39 46 27 12 46 14 56 265 -67 -39 6 53 -40 25 39 -38 26 9 -41 5 17
162 0 0 -40 43 30 12 45 49 56 266 -67 -40 4 56 -41 21 45 -39 25 15 -42 0 25
163 0 0 -41 37 33 12 45 24 55 267 -66 -40 59 54 -42 14 54 -40 21 10 -42 52 41
164 0 0 -42 28 47 12 45 1 54 267 -65 -41 52 0 -43 5 17 -41 14 9 -43 42 15
165 0 0 -43 17 23 12 44 39 54 268 -65 -42 41 24 -43 53 7 -42 4 24 -44 29 17
166 0 0 -44 3 32 12 44 18 53 268 -64 -43 28 17 -44 38 32 -42 52 4 -45 13 59
167 0 0 -44 47 22 12 43 58 52 269 -63 -44 12 49 -45 21 41 -43 37 20 -45 56 27
168 0 0 -45 29 2 12 43 38 52 269 -63 -44 55 9 -46 2 42 -44 20 20 -46 36 49
169 0 0 -46 8 39 12 43 20 51 269 -62 -45 35 22 -46 41 43 -45 1 12 -47 15 14
170 0 0 -46 46 20 12 43 2 51 269 -62 -46 13 38 -47 18 50 -45 40 4 -47 51 46
171 0 0 -47 22 12 12 42 44 50 269 -61 -46 50 2 -47 54 9 -46 17 2 -48 26 33
172 0 0 -47 56 19 12 42 27 49 269 -61 -47 24 41 -48 27 46 -46 52 12 -48 59 40
Uncertainty in time = +/- 8 secs
Prediction of 2010 Jun 26.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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