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Updated: 2010 JUN 08, 19:56 UT
Event Rank : 9
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Jul 30 UT, the 12 km diameter asteroid (5325) Silver will occult a 9.4 mag star in the constellation Capricornus for observers along a narrow, significant uncertainty path across eastern Northern Territory and western South Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.5 mag to 13.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.0 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
141 5 38 -10 15 16 17 52 33 40 263 -43 141 10 20 -10 16 8 141 0 55 -10 14 24 142 23 35 -10 29 8 139 49 49 -10 0 52
140 28 55 -11 16 24 17 52 43 41 264 -44 140 33 36 -11 17 16 140 24 14 -11 15 31 141 46 30 -11 30 28 139 13 26 -11 1 48
139 53 35 -12 17 18 17 52 52 42 265 -45 139 58 16 -12 18 11 139 48 55 -12 16 25 141 10 53 -12 31 34 138 38 21 -12 2 31
139 19 34 -13 18 1 17 53 1 42 266 -46 139 24 14 -13 18 55 139 14 55 -13 17 7 140 36 39 -13 32 29 138 4 30 -13 3 3
138 46 47 -14 18 34 17 53 10 43 267 -46 138 51 26 -14 19 28 138 42 8 -14 17 39 140 3 44 -14 33 13 137 31 50 -14 3 26
138 15 11 -15 18 59 17 53 20 43 268 -47 138 19 50 -15 19 54 138 10 32 -15 18 3 139 32 3 -15 33 48 137 0 17 -15 3 40
137 44 42 -16 19 17 17 53 29 44 269 -48 137 49 21 -16 20 13 137 40 4 -16 18 21 139 1 34 -16 34 17 136 29 47 -16 3 49
137 15 18 -17 19 31 17 53 38 44 270 -48 137 19 58 -17 20 28 137 10 40 -17 18 35 138 32 13 -17 34 41 136 0 20 -17 3 54
136 46 57 -18 19 42 17 53 47 45 272 -49 136 51 37 -18 20 39 136 42 18 -18 18 45 138 3 58 -18 35 2 135 31 51 -18 3 55
136 19 35 -19 19 52 17 53 57 45 273 -49 136 24 16 -19 20 49 136 14 55 -19 18 54 137 36 47 -19 35 21 135 4 19 -19 3 55
135 53 12 -20 20 1 17 54 6 45 274 -50 135 57 54 -20 20 59 135 48 32 -20 19 2 137 10 38 -20 35 40 134 37 42 -20 3 55
135 27 46 -21 20 11 17 54 15 46 275 -50 135 32 28 -21 21 10 135 23 4 -21 19 12 136 45 29 -21 36 0 134 11 58 -21 3 56
135 3 15 -22 20 25 17 54 24 46 276 -50 135 7 59 -22 21 24 134 58 32 -22 19 25 136 21 18 -22 36 23 133 47 7 -22 4 0
134 39 39 -23 20 42 17 54 34 46 277 -51 134 44 24 -23 21 42 134 34 54 -23 19 42 135 58 6 -23 36 50 133 23 7 -23 4 8
134 16 56 -24 21 6 17 54 43 46 279 -51 134 21 42 -24 22 6 134 12 9 -24 20 5 135 35 51 -24 37 22 132 59 57 -24 4 22
133 55 5 -25 21 36 17 54 52 46 280 -51 133 59 54 -25 22 37 133 50 17 -25 20 35 135 14 32 -25 38 2 132 37 37 -25 4 43
133 34 8 -26 22 15 17 55 1 46 281 -52 133 38 59 -26 23 17 133 29 18 -26 21 13 134 54 9 -26 38 51 132 16 6 -26 5 13
133 14 3 -27 23 4 17 55 11 46 282 -52 133 18 56 -27 24 6 133 9 10 -27 22 2 134 34 43 -27 39 49 131 55 23 -27 5 53
132 54 50 -28 24 5 17 55 20 46 284 -52 132 59 46 -28 25 8 132 49 55 -28 23 2 134 16 14 -28 40 59 131 35 30 -28 6 43
132 36 31 -29 25 18 17 55 29 46 285 -52 132 41 29 -29 26 22 132 31 33 -29 24 15 133 58 41 -29 42 22 131 16 26 -29 7 47
132 19 5 -30 26 46 17 55 38 46 286 -52 132 24 6 -30 27 50 132 14 4 -30 25 42 133 42 6 -30 44 0 130 58 11 -30 9 5
132 2 33 -31 28 30 17 55 48 46 287 -52 132 7 38 -31 29 35 131 57 29 -31 27 26 133 26 30 -31 45 54 130 40 46 -31 10 40
131 46 57 -32 30 32 17 55 57 46 288 -52 131 52 6 -32 31 38 131 41 49 -32 29 27 133 11 55 -32 48 6 130 24 12 -32 12 31
131 32 18 -33 32 54 17 56 6 46 290 -52 131 37 31 -33 34 0 131 27 6 -33 31 48 132 58 22 -33 50 38 130 8 31 -33 14 42
131 18 38 -34 35 36 17 56 15 46 291 -52 131 23 55 -34 36 43 131 13 22 -34 34 30 132 45 53 -34 53 30 129 53 43 -34 17 14
131 5 59 -35 38 42 17 56 25 46 292 -52 131 11 20 -35 39 49 131 0 38 -35 37 34 132 34 32 -35 56 46 129 39 51 -35 20 9
130 54 24 -36 42 12 17 56 34 45 293 -52 130 59 50 -36 43 20 130 48 58 -36 41 4 132 24 20 -37 0 27 129 26 57 -36 23 28
Uncertainty in time = +/- 8 secs
Prediction of 2010 Jun 9.0
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[Observing Details]
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