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Updated: 2010 MAY 26, 23:33 UT
Event Rank : 34
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Jul 18 UT, the 66 km diameter asteroid (777) Gutemberga will occult a 11.5 mag star in the constellation Pisces for observers along a significant uncertainty path across southern Queensland, beginning near Rockhampton, western New South Wales and eastern South Australia, passing near Adelaide.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.7 mag to 16.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
134 27 59 -37 0 0 17 25 15 14 46 -56 135 1 18 133 54 31 137 9 42 131 42 17
135 48 59 -36 0 0 17 25 18 15 45 -56 136 21 29 135 16 20 138 26 54 133 7 29
137 7 18 -35 0 0 17 25 20 17 44 -55 137 39 3 136 35 24 139 41 43 134 29 39
138 23 9 -34 0 0 17 25 23 18 44 -54 138 54 14 137 51 57 140 54 21 135 49 2
139 36 46 -33 0 0 17 25 26 20 43 -53 140 7 13 139 6 12 142 5 0 137 5 54
140 48 19 -32 0 0 17 25 30 21 42 -52 141 18 11 140 18 20 143 13 48 138 20 26
141 57 58 -31 0 0 17 25 33 22 42 -51 142 27 19 141 28 33 144 20 55 139 32 52
143 5 54 -30 0 0 17 25 37 24 41 -50 143 34 44 142 36 59 145 26 29 140 43 21
144 12 13 -29 0 0 17 25 41 25 40 -49 144 40 36 143 43 46 146 30 37 141 52 3
145 17 4 -28 0 0 17 25 45 27 40 -48 145 45 1 144 49 3 147 33 27 142 59 6
146 20 34 -27 0 0 17 25 49 28 39 -48 146 48 7 145 52 57 148 35 3 144 4 37
147 22 48 -26 0 0 17 25 53 29 39 -47 147 50 0 146 55 34 149 35 33 145 8 45
148 23 54 -25 0 0 17 25 58 31 38 -46 148 50 45 147 57 0 150 35 1 146 11 36
149 23 56 -24 0 0 17 26 3 32 38 -44 149 50 28 148 57 21 151 33 33 147 13 16
150 23 0 -23 0 0 17 26 8 33 37 -43 150 49 14 149 56 43 152 31 13 148 13 50
151 21 10 -22 0 0 17 26 13 35 37 -42 151 47 8 150 55 10 153 28 5 149 13 24
152 18 31 -21 0 0 17 26 18 36 36 -41 152 44 14 151 52 46 154 24 15 150 12 2
153 15 8 -20 0 0 17 26 23 37 36 -40 153 40 37 152 49 37 155 19 46 151 9 50
154 11 4 -19 0 0 17 26 29 39 35 -39 154 36 20 153 45 46 156 14 42 152 6 52
155 6 23 -18 0 0 17 26 34 40 35 -38 155 31 28 154 41 17 157 9 5 153 3 12
Uncertainty in time = +/- 9 secs
Prediction of 2010 May 27.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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