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Updated: 2010 APR 27, 19:44 UT
Event Rank : 31
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Jun 19 UT, the 28 km diameter asteroid (1300) Marcelle will occult a 8.1 mag star in the constellation Capricornus for observers along a path passing near Rotorua and Napier in New Zealand.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 7.5 mag to 15.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: .
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
176 58 4 -31 0 0 15 55 41 82 2 -40 176 49 16 177 6 53 176 11 11 177 44 56
176 54 1 -32 0 0 15 56 3 81 2 -41 176 45 7 177 2 55 176 6 38 177 41 23
176 50 0 -33 0 0 15 56 24 80 2 -41 176 41 0 176 59 0 176 2 6 177 37 53
176 46 1 -34 0 0 15 56 46 79 1 -41 176 36 55 176 55 8 175 57 34 177 34 28
176 42 5 -35 0 0 15 57 7 78 1 -41 176 32 52 176 51 18 175 53 3 177 31 6
176 38 11 -36 0 0 15 57 29 77 1 -41 176 28 51 176 47 31 175 48 32 177 27 48
176 34 20 -37 0 0 15 57 50 76 1 -41 176 24 53 176 43 47 175 44 3 177 24 36
176 30 31 -38 0 0 15 58 11 75 1 -41 176 20 57 176 40 6 175 39 34 177 21 28
176 26 46 -39 0 0 15 58 32 74 1 -41 176 17 4 176 36 29 175 35 7 177 18 25
176 23 5 -40 0 0 15 58 53 73 0 -41 176 13 14 176 32 55 175 30 40 177 15 28
176 19 27 -41 0 0 15 59 14 72 0 -40 176 9 27 176 29 26 175 26 15 177 12 37
176 15 52 -42 0 0 15 59 35 71 0 -40 176 5 43 176 26 1 175 21 52 177 9 52
176 12 22 -43 0 0 15 59 55 70 0 -40 176 2 4 176 22 41 175 17 30 177 7 14
176 8 57 -44 0 0 16 0 16 69 0 -40 175 58 28 176 19 26 175 13 10 177 4 43
176 5 36 -45 0 0 16 0 36 68 360 -40 175 54 56 176 16 16 175 8 52 177 2 19
176 2 20 -46 0 0 16 0 56 67 360 -40 175 51 29 176 13 11 175 4 35 177 0 4
175 59 10 -47 0 0 16 1 16 66 360 -40 175 48 6 176 10 13 175 0 21 176 57 58
175 56 5 -48 0 0 16 1 36 65 360 -40 175 44 49 176 7 21 174 56 9 176 56 0
175 53 6 -49 0 0 16 1 56 64 360 -39 175 41 37 176 4 35 174 51 59 176 54 13
175 50 14 -50 0 0 16 2 16 63 360 -39 175 38 30 176 1 57 174 47 51 176 52 36
Uncertainty in time = +/- 12 secs
Prediction of 2010 Apr 27.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
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[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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