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Updated: 2010 APR 16, 04:05 UT
Event Rank : 45
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Jun 01 UT, the 120 km diameter asteroid (3451) Mentor will occult a 10.6 mag star in the constellation Equuleus for observers along a south-to-north path across Australia centred from just east of Eucla to Darwin.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.7 mag to 15.3 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 19.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
129 6 11 -40 23 38 18 58 6 43 14 -41 128 23 19 -40 22 15 129 48 59 -40 25 5 126 18 26 -40 18 36 131 52 45 -40 29 41
129 23 37 -38 19 44 18 58 32 45 14 -41 128 42 2 -38 18 22 130 5 9 -38 21 10 126 40 55 -38 14 44 132 5 15 -38 25 41
129 38 25 -36 20 5 18 58 58 47 14 -41 128 57 56 -36 18 43 130 18 50 -36 21 30 127 0 5 -36 15 7 132 15 45 -36 25 57
129 51 1 -34 24 8 18 59 23 49 14 -40 129 11 30 -34 22 47 130 30 28 -34 25 32 127 16 32 -34 19 11 132 24 35 -34 29 54
130 1 47 -32 31 26 18 59 49 50 14 -40 129 23 8 -32 30 6 130 40 22 -32 32 49 127 30 42 -32 26 31 132 32 1 -32 37 8
130 10 59 -30 41 36 19 0 15 52 14 -40 129 33 7 -30 40 17 130 48 49 -30 42 59 127 42 55 -30 36 44 132 38 16 -30 47 14
130 18 52 -28 54 21 19 0 41 54 15 -39 129 41 40 -28 53 2 130 56 0 -28 55 42 127 53 28 -28 49 30 132 43 31 -28 59 55
130 25 34 -27 9 23 19 1 7 56 15 -39 129 48 59 -27 8 5 131 2 7 -27 10 43 128 2 34 -27 4 34 132 47 52 -27 14 53
130 31 16 -25 26 28 19 1 33 57 15 -39 129 55 13 -25 25 11 131 7 16 -25 27 48 128 10 24 -25 21 41 132 51 27 -25 31 56
130 36 4 -23 45 25 19 1 58 59 16 -38 130 0 31 -23 44 8 131 11 35 -23 46 44 128 17 7 -23 40 40 132 54 22 -23 50 49
130 40 4 -22 6 2 19 2 24 61 16 -38 130 4 57 -22 4 46 131 15 9 -22 7 21 128 22 51 -22 1 19 132 56 41 -22 11 24
130 43 22 -20 28 10 19 2 50 62 17 -37 130 8 39 -20 26 54 131 18 4 -20 29 29 128 27 41 -20 23 28 132 58 28 -20 33 30
130 46 2 -18 51 41 19 3 16 64 17 -37 130 11 40 -18 50 25 131 20 22 -18 52 59 128 31 43 -18 47 0 132 59 46 -18 56 58
130 48 7 -17 16 26 19 3 42 65 18 -36 130 14 3 -17 15 11 131 22 9 -17 17 43 128 35 2 -17 11 46 133 0 38 -17 21 41
130 49 41 -15 42 18 19 4 8 67 19 -36 130 15 54 -15 41 4 131 23 26 -15 43 36 128 37 41 -15 37 40 133 1 7 -15 47 32
130 50 46 -14 9 12 19 4 33 68 19 -35 130 17 13 -14 7 58 131 24 16 -14 10 29 128 39 44 -14 4 34 133 1 15 -14 14 24
130 51 24 -12 37 1 19 4 59 70 21 -34 130 18 5 -12 35 47 131 24 41 -12 38 18 128 41 13 -12 32 24 133 1 3 -12 42 12
130 51 39 -11 5 40 19 5 25 71 22 -34 130 18 31 -11 4 26 131 24 45 -11 6 56 128 42 12 -11 1 4 133 0 34 -11 10 50
130 51 30 - 9 35 4 19 5 51 73 23 -33 130 18 32 - 9 33 50 131 24 27 - 9 36 20 128 42 41 - 9 30 28 132 59 48 - 9 40 12
130 51 1 - 8 5 8 19 6 17 74 25 -33 130 18 11 - 8 3 54 131 23 50 - 8 6 24 128 42 44 - 8 0 33 132 58 48 - 8 10 15
Uncertainty in time = +/- 29 secs
Prediction of 2010 Apr 16.0
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