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Updated: 2010 FEB 19, 09:14 UT
Event Rank : 14
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Apr 17 UT, the 31 km diameter asteroid (2967) Vladisvyat will occult a 9.9 mag star in the constellation Corona Australis for observers along a large uncertainty path across Western Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 7.0 mag to 16.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
117 59 12 -10 3 28 17 11 37 35 131 -74 118 11 26 -10 7 10 117 46 56 - 9 59 43 120 8 31 -10 40 47 115 44 32 - 9 20 15
118 13 34 -11 27 26 17 11 49 36 130 -74 118 25 42 -11 30 59 118 1 24 -11 23 49 120 21 58 -12 3 19 116 0 11 -10 45 58
118 25 53 -12 49 33 17 12 1 37 129 -74 118 37 57 -12 52 59 118 13 48 -12 46 4 120 33 36 -13 24 11 116 13 31 -12 9 36
118 36 19 -14 10 0 17 12 13 38 129 -73 118 48 18 -14 13 19 118 24 16 -14 6 38 120 43 32 -14 43 31 116 24 42 -13 31 22
118 44 57 -15 28 56 17 12 25 39 128 -73 118 56 55 -15 32 9 118 32 58 -15 25 40 120 51 52 -16 1 30 116 33 54 -14 51 28
118 51 56 -16 46 30 17 12 38 40 127 -72 119 3 52 -16 49 38 118 39 58 -16 43 19 120 58 41 -17 18 13 116 41 14 -16 10 2
118 57 19 -18 2 48 17 12 50 41 126 -72 119 9 15 -18 5 52 118 45 21 -17 59 42 121 4 3 -18 33 46 116 46 49 -17 27 14
119 1 10 -19 17 58 17 13 2 42 125 -71 119 13 6 -19 20 57 118 49 12 -19 14 55 121 8 2 -19 48 16 116 50 42 -18 43 10
119 3 33 -20 32 3 17 13 14 43 124 -70 119 15 30 -20 35 0 118 51 34 -20 29 4 121 10 40 -21 1 48 116 52 59 -19 57 56
119 4 30 -21 45 10 17 13 26 43 123 -70 119 16 29 -21 48 4 118 52 30 -21 42 14 121 11 59 -22 14 25 116 53 42 -21 11 37
119 4 3 -22 57 23 17 13 38 44 122 -69 119 16 4 -23 0 14 118 52 0 -22 54 29 121 12 0 -23 26 12 116 52 53 -22 24 20
119 2 13 -24 8 45 17 13 50 45 121 -68 119 14 17 -24 11 34 118 50 7 -24 5 54 121 10 45 -24 37 13 116 50 34 -23 36 7
118 59 1 -25 19 20 17 14 2 45 120 -68 119 11 9 -25 22 7 118 46 51 -25 16 31 121 8 15 -25 47 30 116 46 46 -24 47 3
118 54 27 -26 29 11 17 14 14 46 119 -67 119 6 39 -26 31 57 118 42 13 -26 26 24 121 4 28 -26 57 8 116 41 30 -25 57 11
118 48 31 -27 38 22 17 14 27 46 118 -66 119 0 48 -27 41 7 118 36 12 -27 35 35 120 59 25 -28 6 7 116 34 45 -27 6 35
118 41 12 -28 46 54 17 14 39 47 117 -66 118 53 34 -28 49 38 118 28 48 -28 44 9 120 53 6 -29 14 32 116 26 32 -28 15 16
118 32 29 -29 54 51 17 14 51 47 116 -65 118 44 57 -29 57 35 118 20 0 -29 52 6 120 45 29 -30 22 24 116 16 48 -29 23 18
118 22 22 -31 2 14 17 15 3 48 115 -64 118 34 56 -31 4 57 118 9 46 -30 59 29 120 36 33 -31 29 45 116 5 33 -30 30 43
118 10 47 -32 9 5 17 15 15 48 114 -63 118 23 29 -32 11 49 117 58 4 -32 6 20 120 26 15 -32 36 38 115 52 44 -31 37 33
117 57 43 -33 15 26 17 15 27 48 113 -63 118 10 32 -33 18 10 117 44 52 -33 12 40 120 14 35 -33 43 4 115 38 20 -32 43 49
117 43 6 -34 21 19 17 15 39 48 112 -62 117 56 4 -34 24 3 117 30 8 -34 18 32 120 1 28 -34 49 4 115 22 18 -33 49 34
117 26 55 -35 26 44 17 15 51 49 111 -61 117 40 1 -35 29 30 117 13 47 -35 23 57 119 46 52 -35 54 40 115 4 34 -34 54 48
117 9 4 -36 31 44 17 16 4 49 110 -60 117 22 20 -36 34 31 116 55 47 -36 28 55 119 30 44 -36 59 53 114 45 4 -35 59 33
116 49 30 -37 36 19 17 16 16 49 109 -59 117 2 55 -37 39 8 116 36 3 -37 33 28 119 12 59 -38 4 44 114 23 44 -37 3 49
Uncertainty in time = +/- 16 secs
Prediction of 2010 Feb 19.0
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