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Updated: 2010 MAR 18, 17:31 UT
Event Rank : 48
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Apr 14 UT, the 54 km diameter asteroid (402) Chloe will occult a 12.8 mag star in the constellation Ophiuchus for observers along a significant uncertainty path across New South Wales, western Queensland and Northern Territory.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.9 mag to 13.0 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 9.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
153 51 54 -42 31 6 13 41 30 35 59 -57 153 20 48 -42 42 15 154 22 31 -42 19 56 151 54 51 -43 12 9 155 42 15 -41 50 4
153 28 41 -41 40 37 13 41 47 35 60 -58 152 58 3 -41 51 39 153 58 51 -41 29 36 151 33 27 -42 21 11 155 17 25 -41 0 5
153 4 40 -40 50 40 13 42 4 35 60 -59 152 34 28 -41 1 34 153 34 24 -40 39 47 151 11 7 -41 30 45 154 51 55 -40 10 36
152 39 52 -40 1 12 13 42 20 35 61 -59 152 10 4 -40 11 59 153 9 12 -39 50 26 150 47 51 -40 40 50 154 25 46 -39 21 35
152 14 18 -39 12 13 13 42 37 35 62 -60 151 44 52 -39 22 52 152 43 18 -39 1 33 150 23 42 -39 51 23 153 58 57 -38 33 1
151 48 1 -38 23 39 13 42 54 36 63 -61 151 18 55 -38 34 11 152 16 41 -38 13 7 149 58 43 -39 2 25 153 31 31 -37 44 52
151 21 0 -37 35 31 13 43 10 36 64 -62 150 52 13 -37 45 56 151 49 22 -37 25 5 149 32 53 -38 13 52 153 3 27 -36 57 7
150 53 17 -36 47 46 13 43 27 36 65 -63 150 24 46 -36 58 5 151 21 23 -36 37 26 149 6 15 -37 25 44 152 34 46 -36 9 45
150 24 52 -36 0 24 13 43 44 36 65 -63 149 56 37 -36 10 37 150 52 43 -35 50 10 148 38 48 -36 37 59 152 5 29 -35 22 45
149 55 45 -35 13 22 13 44 1 36 66 -64 149 27 43 -35 23 30 150 23 22 -35 3 15 148 10 34 -35 50 36 151 35 34 -34 36 5
149 25 56 -34 26 42 13 44 17 36 67 -65 148 58 7 -34 36 43 149 53 22 -34 16 40 147 41 33 -35 3 34 151 5 2 -33 49 45
148 55 25 -33 40 20 13 44 34 36 68 -65 148 27 47 -33 50 16 149 22 40 -33 30 23 147 11 44 -34 16 51 150 33 53 -33 3 43
148 24 12 -32 54 16 13 44 51 36 69 -66 147 56 44 -33 4 7 148 51 18 -32 44 25 146 41 8 -33 30 28 150 2 7 -32 17 58
147 52 17 -32 8 29 13 45 7 36 70 -67 147 24 57 -32 18 15 148 19 14 -31 58 43 146 9 45 -32 44 22 149 29 41 -31 32 30
147 19 38 -31 22 59 13 45 24 35 70 -67 146 52 25 -31 32 39 147 46 28 -31 13 17 145 37 33 -31 58 33 148 56 37 -30 47 17
146 46 14 -30 37 43 13 45 41 35 71 -68 146 19 8 -30 47 19 147 12 59 -30 28 7 145 4 33 -31 12 59 148 22 53 -30 2 19
146 12 6 -29 52 42 13 45 58 35 72 -69 145 45 4 -30 2 13 146 38 46 -29 43 10 144 30 42 -30 27 40 147 48 28 -29 17 35
145 37 12 -29 7 54 13 46 14 35 73 -69 145 10 13 -29 17 21 146 3 48 -28 58 27 143 56 0 -29 42 35 147 13 21 -28 33 4
145 1 29 -28 23 19 13 46 31 35 74 -70 144 34 33 -28 32 41 145 28 3 -28 13 56 143 20 25 -28 57 43 146 37 30 -27 48 45
144 24 58 -27 38 56 13 46 48 34 75 -70 143 58 2 -27 48 13 144 51 30 -27 29 37 142 43 57 -28 13 3 146 0 54 -27 4 38
143 47 35 -26 54 43 13 47 4 34 76 -70 143 20 39 -27 3 56 144 14 8 -26 45 29 142 6 32 -27 28 34 145 23 32 -26 20 41
143 9 19 -26 10 41 13 47 21 34 76 -71 142 42 22 -26 19 50 143 35 54 -26 1 31 141 28 8 -26 44 16 144 45 21 -25 36 54
142 30 8 -25 26 48 13 47 38 34 77 -71 142 3 8 -25 35 53 142 56 46 -25 17 43 140 48 44 -26 0 8 144 6 20 -24 53 16
141 50 0 -24 43 4 13 47 55 33 78 -71 141 22 54 -24 52 5 142 16 41 -24 34 3 140 8 16 -25 16 8 143 26 26 -24 9 47
141 8 50 -23 59 28 13 48 11 33 79 -72 140 41 39 -24 8 24 141 35 38 -23 50 30 139 26 42 -24 32 16 142 45 36 -23 26 25
140 26 36 -23 15 59 13 48 28 32 79 -72 139 59 17 -23 24 51 140 53 31 -23 7 5 138 43 56 -23 48 31 142 3 47 -22 43 11
139 43 15 -22 32 36 13 48 45 32 80 -72 139 15 46 -22 41 24 140 10 19 -22 23 46 137 59 56 -23 4 53 141 20 57 -22 0 2
138 58 42 -21 49 18 13 49 2 31 81 -72 138 31 2 -21 58 2 139 25 58 -21 40 33 137 14 37 -22 21 20 140 37 2 -21 16 59
138 12 53 -21 6 5 13 49 18 31 82 -72 137 44 59 -21 14 45 138 40 21 -20 57 24 136 27 52 -21 37 51 139 51 57 -20 34 1
137 25 43 -20 22 56 13 49 35 30 82 -72 136 57 32 -20 31 32 137 53 26 -20 14 19 135 39 37 -20 54 26 139 5 39 -19 51 6
136 37 4 -19 39 50 13 49 52 30 83 -72 136 8 35 -19 48 21 137 5 6 -19 31 17 134 49 44 -20 11 4 138 18 1 -19 8 15
135 46 52 -18 56 46 13 50 8 29 84 -71 135 18 1 -19 5 13 136 15 14 -18 48 17 133 58 5 -19 27 43 137 28 59 -18 25 25
134 54 58 -18 13 42 13 50 25 28 85 -71 134 25 42 -18 22 5 135 23 43 -18 5 18 133 4 30 -18 44 23 136 38 26 -17 42 37
134 1 13 -17 30 39 13 50 42 28 85 -70 133 31 27 -17 38 57 134 30 25 -17 22 19 132 8 48 -18 1 1 135 46 13 -16 59 50
133 5 26 -16 47 34 13 50 59 27 86 -70 132 35 7 -16 55 47 133 35 10 -16 39 19 131 10 46 -17 17 38 134 52 13 -16 17 1
132 7 25 -16 4 27 13 51 15 26 87 -69 131 36 27 -16 12 35 132 37 45 -15 56 16 130 10 8 -16 34 11 133 56 16 -15 34 11
131 6 55 -15 21 16 13 51 32 25 87 -69 130 35 12 -15 29 18 131 37 57 -15 13 10 129 6 35 -15 50 38 132 58 9 -14 51 18
130 3 38 -14 37 59 13 51 49 24 88 -68 129 31 2 -14 45 55 130 35 30 -14 29 59 127 59 42 -15 6 58 131 57 38 -14 8 21
128 57 13 -13 54 34 13 52 5 23 88 -67 128 23 35 -14 2 24 129 30 2 -13 46 40 126 49 0 -14 23 7 130 54 26 -13 25 17
127 47 11 -13 10 59 13 52 22 22 89 -66 127 12 19 -13 18 42 128 21 10 -13 3 13 125 33 49 -13 39 3 129 48 14 -12 42 6
126 32 58 -12 27 12 13 52 39 21 89 -65 125 56 36 -12 34 47 127 8 20 -12 19 33 124 13 18 -12 54 42 128 38 36 -11 58 45
125 13 49 -11 43 8 13 52 56 20 90 -64 124 35 35 -11 50 33 125 50 52 -11 35 38 122 46 15 -12 9 58 127 24 59 -11 15 11
123 48 42 -10 58 43 13 53 12 19 90 -62 123 8 7 -11 5 57 124 27 50 -10 51 24 121 10 57 -11 24 44 126 6 42 -10 31 21
122 16 8 -10 13 51 13 53 29 17 91 -61 121 32 29 -10 20 50 122 58 0 -10 6 45 119 24 42 -10 38 48 124 42 50 - 9 47 12
Uncertainty in time = +/- 16 secs
Prediction of 2010 Mar 19.0
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