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Updated: 2010 FEB 06, 03:45 UT
Event Rank : 43
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Mar 31 UT, the 102 km diameter asteroid (1390) Abastumani will occult a 11.8 mag star in the constellation Corona Australis for observers along a path across the South Island of New Zealand, from Christchurch to Westport. The one sigma limit is fairly wide, including all of the South Island north of a line from Milton to Haast.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.8 mag to 15.5 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
165 32 34 -30 30 2 14 12 1 33 120 -59 166 21 1 -30 33 30 164 43 22 -30 25 51 168 45 1 -30 40 4 162 7 52 -30 8 13
166 20 22 -31 53 54 14 12 8 34 119 -58 167 8 41 -31 56 38 165 31 22 -31 50 30 169 32 26 -32 1 8 162 56 45 -31 35 34
167 5 53 -33 15 40 14 12 15 35 118 -56 167 54 10 -33 17 44 166 16 57 -33 12 57 170 17 59 -33 20 23 163 42 45 -33 0 24
167 49 24 -34 35 34 14 12 23 37 117 -55 168 37 45 -34 37 2 167 0 24 -34 33 29 171 1 53 -34 38 0 164 26 15 -34 23 2
168 31 7 -35 53 50 14 12 30 38 116 -53 169 19 37 -35 54 46 167 41 58 -35 52 19 171 44 21 -35 54 10 165 7 31 -35 43 46
169 11 14 -37 10 39 14 12 37 39 115 -52 169 59 59 -37 11 4 168 21 52 -37 9 39 172 25 31 -37 9 2 165 46 49 -37 2 48
169 49 55 -38 26 10 14 12 44 40 114 -50 170 38 59 -38 26 7 169 0 14 -38 25 38 173 5 33 -38 22 45 166 24 18 -38 20 21
170 27 18 -39 40 30 14 12 52 41 113 -49 171 16 46 -39 40 2 169 37 13 -39 40 26 173 44 33 -39 35 25 167 0 10 -39 36 35
171 3 30 -40 53 48 14 12 59 42 111 -48 171 53 26 -40 52 56 170 12 58 -40 54 8 174 22 38 -40 47 8 167 34 32 -40 51 37
171 38 37 -42 6 9 14 13 6 42 110 -47 172 29 5 -42 4 55 170 47 33 -42 6 53 174 59 54 -41 57 59 168 7 30 -42 5 36
172 12 45 -43 17 40 14 13 13 43 109 -45 173 3 49 -43 16 4 171 21 5 -43 18 45 175 36 27 -43 8 4 168 39 12 -43 18 38
172 45 59 -44 28 25 14 13 21 44 107 -44 173 37 43 -44 26 28 171 53 39 -44 29 51 176 12 21 -44 17 28 169 9 40 -44 30 48
173 18 23 -45 38 29 14 13 28 45 106 -43 174 10 51 -45 36 12 172 25 18 -45 40 14 176 47 41 -45 26 13 169 39 0 -45 42 13
173 50 0 -46 47 56 14 13 35 45 105 -42 174 43 17 -46 45 21 172 56 6 -46 50 0 177 22 30 -46 34 24 170 7 15 -46 52 57
174 20 54 -47 56 49 14 13 42 46 103 -41 175 15 4 -47 53 56 173 26 6 -47 59 11 177 56 54 -47 42 5 170 34 27 -48 3 3
174 51 8 -49 5 14 14 13 50 47 102 -40 175 46 15 -49 2 3 173 55 22 -49 7 53 178 30 55 -48 49 18 171 0 38 -49 12 37
175 20 45 -50 13 12 14 13 57 47 100 -38 176 16 54 -50 9 44 174 23 55 -50 16 8 179 4 37 -49 56 7 171 25 51 -50 21 42
175 49 46 -51 20 46 14 14 4 48 99 -37 176 47 3 -51 17 3 174 51 48 -51 23 59 179 38 4 -51 2 34 171 50 6 -51 30 21
Uncertainty in time = +/- 10 secs
Prediction of 2010 Feb 6.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
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