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Updated: 2010 JAN 25, 20:53 UT
Event Rank : 43
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Mar 21 UT, the 89 km diameter asteroid (733) Mocia will occult a 12.5 mag star in the constellation Norma for observers along a path across eastern Australia from west of Cooktown across western New South Wales and eastern South Australia to Kingston SE. ( Adelaide is within the one sigma limit )
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.3 mag to 14.7 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 7.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
143 33 18 4 23 52 16 47 13 38 158 -56 143 59 41 4 15 54 143 6 47 4 32 4 145 18 44 3 53 20 141 45 59 4 58 28
143 39 48 2 21 30 16 47 26 40 158 -56 144 5 58 2 13 57 143 13 31 2 29 18 145 24 26 1 52 30 141 53 29 2 54 20
143 44 22 0 23 52 16 47 39 42 157 -56 144 10 23 0 16 38 143 18 15 0 31 19 145 28 26 - 0 3 53 141 58 47 0 55 12
143 47 15 - 1 29 43 16 47 53 43 157 -56 144 13 10 - 1 36 40 143 21 15 - 1 22 33 145 30 56 - 1 56 23 142 2 12 - 0 59 37
143 48 38 - 3 19 44 16 48 6 45 156 -56 144 14 28 - 3 26 26 143 22 42 - 3 12 49 145 32 5 - 3 45 29 142 3 55 - 2 50 42
143 48 38 - 5 6 37 16 48 19 47 155 -56 144 14 27 - 5 13 7 143 22 45 - 4 59 55 145 32 0 - 5 31 35 142 4 7 - 4 38 29
143 47 24 - 6 50 42 16 48 33 48 155 -55 144 13 13 - 6 57 2 143 21 31 - 6 44 11 145 30 48 - 7 15 0 142 2 55 - 6 23 21
143 45 0 - 8 32 18 16 48 46 50 154 -55 144 10 51 - 8 38 29 143 19 5 - 8 25 57 145 28 33 - 8 56 2 142 0 26 - 8 5 37
143 41 30 -10 11 40 16 48 59 51 153 -55 144 7 24 -10 17 43 143 15 32 -10 5 27 145 25 19 -10 34 54 141 56 45 - 9 45 33
143 36 57 -11 49 0 16 49 12 53 152 -54 144 2 57 -11 54 57 143 10 55 -11 42 54 145 21 8 -12 11 50 141 51 54 -11 23 22
143 31 24 -13 24 31 16 49 26 54 151 -54 143 57 30 -13 30 22 143 5 15 -13 18 30 145 16 2 -13 46 59 141 45 58 -12 59 17
143 24 53 -14 58 22 16 49 39 55 150 -53 143 51 7 -15 4 8 142 58 36 -14 52 26 145 10 3 -15 20 32 141 38 57 -14 33 29
143 17 24 -16 30 42 16 49 52 57 149 -53 143 43 47 -16 36 24 142 50 59 -16 24 50 145 3 13 -16 52 37 141 30 53 -16 6 5
143 8 59 -18 1 38 16 50 6 58 147 -52 143 35 33 -18 7 17 142 42 23 -17 55 49 144 55 30 -18 23 21 141 21 48 -17 37 15
142 59 38 -19 31 18 16 50 19 59 146 -52 143 26 23 -19 36 55 142 32 50 -19 25 32 144 46 57 -19 52 52 141 11 41 -19 7 6
142 49 19 -20 59 49 16 50 32 60 144 -51 143 16 18 -21 5 23 142 22 19 -20 54 4 144 37 32 -21 21 16 141 0 33 -20 35 44
142 38 4 -22 27 15 16 50 46 61 143 -51 143 5 17 -22 32 48 142 10 50 -22 21 32 144 27 15 -22 48 38 140 48 22 -22 3 16
142 25 51 -23 53 42 16 50 59 62 141 -50 142 53 19 -23 59 15 141 58 21 -23 47 59 144 16 5 -24 15 3 140 35 8 -23 29 45
142 12 38 -25 19 15 16 51 12 63 139 -49 142 40 23 -25 24 48 141 44 52 -25 13 32 144 4 1 -25 40 36 140 20 49 -24 55 19
141 58 25 -26 43 58 16 51 26 64 137 -49 142 26 27 -26 49 32 141 30 20 -26 38 15 143 51 1 -27 5 22 140 5 24 -26 19 59
141 43 8 -28 7 55 16 51 39 65 135 -48 142 11 30 -28 13 30 141 14 44 -28 2 11 143 37 3 -28 29 23 139 48 51 -27 43 52
141 26 45 -29 31 10 16 51 52 66 132 -47 141 55 28 -29 36 46 140 58 1 -29 25 24 143 22 6 -29 52 45 139 31 6 -29 7 0
141 9 14 -30 53 46 16 52 6 67 130 -47 141 38 20 -30 59 25 140 40 8 -30 47 58 143 6 5 -31 15 29 139 12 7 -30 29 26
140 50 31 -32 15 46 16 52 19 67 127 -46 141 20 1 -32 21 28 140 21 1 -32 9 55 142 48 59 -32 37 41 138 51 51 -31 51 15
140 30 33 -33 37 14 16 52 32 68 124 -45 141 0 27 -33 42 59 140 0 37 -33 31 19 142 30 44 -33 59 21 138 30 12 -33 12 28
140 9 14 -34 58 12 16 52 46 68 121 -45 140 39 36 -35 4 0 139 38 52 -34 52 13 142 11 15 -35 20 34 138 7 7 -34 33 9
139 46 30 -36 18 41 16 52 59 69 118 -44 140 17 21 -36 24 35 139 15 39 -36 12 38 141 50 28 -36 41 21 137 42 30 -35 53 20
139 22 16 -37 38 46 16 53 12 69 115 -43 139 53 37 -37 44 44 138 50 55 -37 32 37 141 28 18 -38 1 46 137 16 15 -37 13 3
138 56 24 -38 58 27 16 53 26 69 111 -42 139 28 18 -39 4 32 138 24 31 -38 52 13 141 4 39 -39 21 50 136 48 16 -38 32 19
138 28 48 -40 17 47 16 53 39 69 108 -42 139 1 16 -40 23 58 137 56 21 -40 11 26 140 39 24 -40 41 35 136 18 24 -39 51 12
137 59 20 -41 36 48 16 53 52 69 105 -41 138 32 25 -41 43 6 137 26 17 -41 30 19 140 12 25 -42 1 4 135 46 32 -41 9 42
137 27 51 -42 55 30 16 54 6 69 101 -40 138 1 35 -43 1 56 136 54 9 -42 48 54 139 43 35 -43 20 17 135 12 31 -42 27 50
Uncertainty in time = +/- 12 secs
Prediction of 2010 Jan 26.0
Use these links for further information:
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[Observing Details]
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