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Updated: 2010 FEB 03, 18:43 UT
Event Rank : 98
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Mar 01 UT, the 350 km diameter asteroid (704) Interamnia will occult a 12.7 mag star in the constellation Centaurus for observers along a very broad path across Australia including most of western Queensland, western New South Wales and Victoria from Bendigo to Bairnsdale, including Melbourne, and eastern Tasmania.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.5 mag to 12.1 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 48.0 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
138 32 13 - 4 0 0 17 55 6 55 156 -44 136 54 16 140 9 50 135 41 31 141 21 53
138 45 32 - 5 0 0 17 55 19 56 156 -44 137 7 30 140 23 13 135 54 42 141 35 20
138 58 43 - 6 0 0 17 55 32 57 156 -43 137 20 36 140 36 32 136 7 44 141 48 45
139 11 50 - 7 0 0 17 55 46 58 156 -43 137 33 34 140 49 47 136 20 36 142 2 8
139 24 51 - 8 0 0 17 55 59 59 155 -42 137 46 26 141 3 0 136 33 21 142 15 29
139 37 49 - 9 0 0 17 56 13 60 155 -42 137 59 11 141 16 10 136 45 58 142 28 49
139 50 43 -10 0 0 17 56 27 61 155 -41 138 11 51 141 29 19 136 58 27 142 42 10
140 3 34 -11 0 0 17 56 40 62 154 -41 138 24 26 141 42 27 137 10 51 142 55 31
140 16 23 -12 0 0 17 56 54 63 154 -40 138 36 56 141 55 36 137 23 8 143 8 54
140 29 11 -13 0 0 17 57 9 64 153 -39 138 49 24 142 8 45 137 35 21 143 22 19
140 41 58 -14 0 0 17 57 23 65 153 -39 139 1 48 142 21 55 137 47 29 143 35 47
140 54 45 -15 0 0 17 57 37 66 152 -38 139 14 10 142 35 7 137 59 33 143 49 19
141 7 33 -16 0 0 17 57 52 67 151 -37 139 26 31 142 48 23 138 11 35 144 2 56
141 20 22 -17 0 0 17 58 6 68 151 -37 139 38 51 143 1 42 138 23 33 144 16 38
141 33 13 -18 0 0 17 58 21 69 150 -36 139 51 10 143 15 6 138 35 30 144 30 26
141 46 7 -19 0 0 17 58 36 70 149 -36 140 3 30 143 28 35 138 47 25 144 44 21
141 59 5 -20 0 0 17 58 51 71 148 -35 140 15 52 143 42 10 138 59 20 144 58 25
142 12 7 -21 0 0 17 59 6 72 147 -34 140 28 15 143 55 52 139 11 15 145 12 37
142 25 15 -22 0 0 17 59 21 73 146 -34 140 40 41 144 9 42 139 23 11 145 26 59
142 38 29 -23 0 0 17 59 36 74 145 -33 140 53 11 144 23 41 139 35 9 145 41 33
142 51 50 -24 0 0 17 59 51 75 143 -32 141 5 45 144 37 50 139 47 8 145 56 18
143 5 19 -25 0 0 18 0 6 76 142 -32 141 18 24 144 52 10 139 59 11 146 11 16
143 18 57 -26 0 0 18 0 22 77 140 -31 141 31 9 145 6 42 140 11 18 146 26 29
143 32 45 -27 0 0 18 0 37 78 138 -30 141 44 1 145 21 27 140 23 29 146 41 56
143 46 43 -28 0 0 18 0 53 78 135 -29 141 57 1 145 36 26 140 35 45 146 57 41
144 0 54 -29 0 0 18 1 8 79 132 -29 142 10 9 145 51 41 140 48 8 147 13 44
144 15 18 -30 0 0 18 1 24 80 129 -28 142 23 27 146 7 12 141 0 38 147 30 6
144 29 57 -31 0 0 18 1 39 81 125 -27 142 36 56 146 23 1 141 13 16 147 46 49
144 44 51 -32 0 0 18 1 55 82 120 -27 142 50 37 146 39 10 141 26 3 148 3 54
145 0 2 -33 0 0 18 2 11 82 114 -26 143 4 31 146 55 40 141 39 1 148 21 23
145 15 32 -34 0 0 18 2 26 83 107 -25 143 18 39 147 12 33 141 52 9 148 39 19
145 31 21 -35 0 0 18 2 42 83 99 -24 143 33 2 147 29 50 142 5 30 148 57 42
145 47 32 -36 0 0 18 2 58 83 89 -24 143 47 43 147 47 33 142 19 5 149 16 35
146 4 6 -37 0 0 18 3 14 84 79 -23 144 2 41 148 5 45 142 32 54 149 36 0
146 21 5 -38 0 0 18 3 30 84 69 -22 144 18 0 148 24 27 142 46 59 149 56 0
146 38 31 -39 0 0 18 3 45 83 58 -22 144 33 40 148 43 41 143 1 22 150 16 36
146 56 27 -40 0 0 18 4 1 83 49 -21 144 49 44 149 3 30 143 16 5 150 37 52
147 14 53 -41 0 0 18 4 17 83 41 -20 145 6 12 149 23 57 143 31 7 150 59 50
147 33 53 -42 0 0 18 4 33 82 34 -19 145 23 8 149 45 5 143 46 33 151 22 34
147 53 30 -43 0 0 18 4 49 81 28 -19 145 40 34 150 6 56 144 2 23 151 46 7
148 13 45 -44 0 0 18 5 4 81 23 -18 145 58 31 150 29 33 144 18 40 152 10 33
148 34 43 -45 0 0 18 5 20 80 19 -17 146 17 2 150 53 1 144 35 25 152 35 55
148 56 27 -46 0 0 18 5 36 79 15 -16 146 36 11 151 17 24 144 52 41 153 2 18
149 18 59 -47 0 0 18 5 52 78 12 -16 146 56 0 151 42 45 145 10 31 153 29 48
149 42 25 -48 0 0 18 6 7 77 10 -15 147 16 32 152 9 10 145 28 58 153 58 29
Uncertainty in time = +/- 18 secs
Prediction of 2010 Feb 4.0
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