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Updated: 2009 DEC 27, 14:00 UT
Event Rank : 83
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Feb 05 UT, the 69 km diameter asteroid (943) Begonia will occult a 11.2 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a path across Western Australia from Eucla to Eigthty Mile Beach.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.5 mag to 13.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 11.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
131 3 48 -35 0 0 13 8 6 32 353 -29 131 32 28 130 35 4 132 7 58 129 59 23
130 27 33 -34 0 0 13 8 18 33 354 -30 130 55 58 129 59 6 131 31 7 129 23 46
129 51 17 -33 0 0 13 8 31 34 354 -30 130 19 26 129 23 5 130 54 16 128 48 4
129 14 57 -32 0 0 13 8 44 35 355 -31 129 42 52 128 47 0 130 17 24 128 12 16
128 38 32 -31 0 0 13 8 58 36 355 -31 129 6 13 128 10 48 129 40 29 127 36 20
128 2 0 -30 0 0 13 9 11 38 356 -31 128 29 28 127 34 28 129 3 29 127 0 16
127 25 20 -29 0 0 13 9 26 39 357 -32 127 52 37 126 58 0 128 26 22 126 24 1
126 48 30 -28 0 0 13 9 40 40 357 -32 127 15 37 126 21 21 127 49 9 125 47 36
126 11 30 -27 0 0 13 9 55 41 358 -32 126 38 26 125 44 30 127 11 46 125 10 57
125 34 17 -26 0 0 13 10 10 42 358 -33 126 1 5 125 7 27 126 34 13 124 34 4
124 56 51 -25 0 0 13 10 26 43 359 -33 125 23 30 124 30 9 125 56 29 123 56 56
124 19 10 -24 0 0 13 10 42 44 360 -33 124 45 42 123 52 35 125 18 31 123 19 32
123 41 13 -23 0 0 13 10 58 45 1 -33 124 7 38 123 14 44 124 40 18 122 41 49
123 2 58 -22 0 0 13 11 15 46 1 -34 123 29 17 122 36 35 124 1 50 122 3 47
122 24 24 -21 0 0 13 11 31 47 2 -34 122 50 38 121 58 6 123 23 5 121 25 24
121 45 30 -20 0 0 13 11 49 48 3 -34 122 11 39 121 19 16 122 44 0 120 46 39
121 6 14 -19 0 0 13 12 6 49 4 -34 121 32 20 120 40 4 122 4 36 120 7 31
120 26 35 -18 0 0 13 12 24 49 5 -34 120 52 38 120 0 27 121 24 50 119 27 58
119 46 31 -17 0 0 13 12 42 50 6 -34 120 12 32 119 20 26 120 44 42 118 47 59
119 6 1 -16 0 0 13 13 1 51 7 -34 119 32 1 118 39 57 120 4 9 118 7 32
Uncertainty in time = +/- 8 secs
Prediction of 2009 Dec 27.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
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[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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