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Updated: 2009 NOV 14, 22:27 UT
Event Rank : 22
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Jan 05 UT, the 20 km diameter asteroid (4744) 1988 RF5 will occult a 9.9 mag star in the constellation Virgo for observers along a significant uncertainty path across southern South Australia, passing over Ceduna, near Adelaide, across Victoria, passing over Ballarat and Melbourne and across north-eastern Tasmania.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.0 mag to 11.8 mag (the combined magnitude of the asteroid and the other component of the double star) for at most 1.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
122 13 33 -29 24 35 15 32 17 3 91 -38 123 37 16 -29 22 38 119 42 32 -29 24 2 128 35 52 -29 2 24 ... .. .. .. .. ..
125 53 1 -29 57 58 15 32 21 6 89 -38 126 40 53 -29 54 39 124 59 15 -30 1 4 130 28 15 -29 31 36 ... .. .. .. .. ..
128 13 54 -30 28 30 15 32 26 8 88 -37 128 51 22 -30 24 46 127 33 49 -30 32 9 132 4 41 -30 0 18 120 38 20 -30 48 28
130 6 8 -30 58 3 15 32 30 10 86 -37 130 38 11 -30 54 5 129 32 30 -31 1 58 133 30 26 -30 28 41 125 4 30 -31 23 58
131 42 7 -31 27 6 15 32 35 11 86 -36 132 10 43 -31 22 59 131 12 23 -31 31 11 134 48 20 -30 56 52 127 32 35 -31 55 9
133 7 14 -31 55 51 15 32 39 13 85 -35 133 33 27 -31 51 36 132 40 11 -32 0 3 136 0 12 -31 24 56 129 27 37 -32 25 13
134 24 28 -32 24 24 15 32 43 14 84 -35 134 48 54 -32 20 4 133 59 22 -32 28 42 137 7 12 -31 52 55 131 4 53 -32 54 43
135 35 37 -32 52 50 15 32 48 15 83 -34 135 58 39 -32 48 26 135 12 1 -32 57 14 138 10 12 -32 20 52 132 30 35 -33 23 53
136 41 53 -33 21 12 15 32 52 15 82 -34 137 3 48 -33 16 44 136 19 29 -33 25 40 139 9 49 -32 48 47 133 47 58 -33 52 53
137 44 8 -33 49 33 15 32 57 16 82 -33 138 5 7 -33 45 0 137 22 42 -33 54 4 140 6 32 -33 16 43 134 59 1 -34 21 45
138 42 58 -34 17 52 15 33 1 17 81 -32 139 3 12 -34 13 16 138 22 21 -34 22 28 141 0 43 -33 44 40 136 5 1 -34 50 34
139 38 54 -34 46 13 15 33 5 18 80 -32 139 58 29 -34 41 34 139 18 58 -34 50 52 141 52 40 -34 12 40 137 6 51 -35 19 21
140 32 17 -35 14 36 15 33 10 18 79 -31 140 51 20 -35 9 54 140 12 56 -35 19 18 142 42 38 -34 40 42 138 5 13 -35 48 9
141 23 26 -35 43 2 15 33 14 19 79 -30 141 42 0 -35 38 17 141 4 34 -35 47 47 143 30 49 -35 8 48 139 0 35 -36 16 58
142 12 36 -36 11 32 15 33 18 20 78 -30 142 30 45 -36 6 44 141 54 9 -36 16 19 144 17 24 -35 36 58 139 53 20 -36 45 49
142 59 57 -36 40 6 15 33 23 20 77 -29 143 17 46 -36 35 15 142 41 53 -36 44 56 145 2 31 -36 5 14 140 43 49 -37 14 45
143 45 42 -37 8 45 15 33 27 21 77 -29 144 3 12 -37 3 51 143 27 57 -37 13 38 145 46 18 -36 33 34 141 32 14 -37 43 45
144 29 58 -37 37 30 15 33 32 21 76 -28 144 47 11 -37 32 34 144 12 30 -37 42 26 146 28 50 -37 2 1 142 18 50 -38 12 50
145 12 52 -38 6 21 15 33 36 21 75 -27 145 29 52 -38 1 22 144 55 39 -38 11 20 147 10 14 -37 30 33 143 3 46 -38 42 1
145 54 32 -38 35 19 15 33 40 22 75 -27 146 11 19 -38 30 17 145 37 32 -38 40 20 147 50 35 -37 59 13 143 47 11 -39 11 19
146 35 2 -39 4 24 15 33 45 22 74 -26 146 51 38 -38 59 20 146 18 13 -39 9 28 148 29 56 -38 28 0 144 29 12 -39 40 44
147 14 27 -39 33 37 15 33 49 23 73 -25 147 30 54 -39 28 30 146 57 48 -39 38 44 149 8 22 -38 56 54 145 9 56 -40 10 17
147 52 52 -40 2 58 15 33 54 23 72 -25 148 9 11 -39 57 49 147 36 21 -40 8 8 149 45 57 -39 25 57 145 49 28 -40 39 59
148 30 21 -40 32 28 15 33 58 23 72 -24 148 46 33 -40 27 16 148 13 56 -40 37 40 150 22 42 -39 55 8 146 27 53 -41 9 49
149 6 56 -41 2 7 15 34 2 24 71 -24 149 23 3 -40 56 53 148 50 37 -41 7 22 150 58 41 -40 24 28 147 5 15 -41 39 48
149 42 40 -41 31 56 15 34 7 24 70 -23 149 58 43 -41 26 39 149 26 26 -41 37 14 151 33 57 -40 53 58 147 41 39 -42 9 57
150 17 37 -42 1 55 15 34 11 24 70 -22 150 33 36 -41 56 35 150 1 27 -42 7 16 152 8 31 -41 23 37 148 17 6 -42 40 17
150 51 48 -42 32 5 15 34 15 24 69 -22 151 7 44 -42 26 42 150 35 41 -42 37 28 152 42 26 -41 53 27 148 51 40 -43 10 48
151 25 16 -43 2 26 15 34 20 25 68 -21 151 41 10 -42 56 59 151 9 10 -43 7 52 153 15 43 -42 23 27 149 25 23 -43 41 30
151 58 2 -43 32 58 15 34 24 25 68 -20 152 13 56 -43 27 29 151 41 57 -43 38 27 153 48 24 -42 53 39 149 58 17 -44 12 24
152 30 8 -44 3 42 15 34 29 25 67 -20 152 46 2 -43 58 10 152 14 4 -44 9 15 154 20 31 -43 24 2 150 30 25 -44 43 31
153 1 36 -44 34 40 15 34 33 25 66 -19 153 17 30 -44 29 4 152 45 30 -44 40 15 154 52 4 -43 54 37 151 1 48 -45 14 51
153 32 26 -45 5 50 15 34 37 25 66 -18 153 48 22 -45 0 12 153 16 19 -45 11 28 155 23 5 -44 25 25 151 32 27 -45 46 25
Uncertainty in time = +/- 9 secs
Prediction of 2009 Nov 15.0
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