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Updated: 2009 NOV 14, 22:26 UT
Event Rank : 60
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Jan 05 UT, the 64 km diameter asteroid (3012) Minsk will occult a 11.4 mag star in the constellation Auriga for observers along a path across New Guinea, over Cape York in far north Queensland, Northern Territory, leaving near Esperance in Western Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.4 mag to 15.8 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
120 37 38 -37 0 0 14 18 12 4 0 -26 119 50 14 121 25 59 ... .. .. 123 7 49
120 48 51 -36 0 0 14 18 11 5 360 -27 120 1 49 121 36 48 ... .. .. 123 17 50
121 2 22 -35 0 0 14 18 9 6 360 -28 120 15 38 121 50 1 ... .. .. 123 30 24
121 18 10 -34 0 0 14 18 6 7 360 -29 120 31 41 122 5 36 ... .. .. 123 45 30
121 36 15 -33 0 0 14 18 4 8 359 -30 120 49 56 122 23 30 119 18 4 124 3 4
121 56 35 -32 0 0 14 18 1 9 359 -31 121 10 21 122 43 44 119 38 44 124 23 8
122 19 10 -31 0 0 14 17 57 10 359 -32 121 32 59 123 6 18 120 1 27 124 45 42
122 44 1 -30 0 0 14 17 53 11 359 -33 121 57 48 123 31 13 120 26 15 125 10 46
123 11 11 -29 0 0 14 17 49 12 358 -34 122 24 52 123 58 30 120 53 9 125 38 24
123 40 42 -28 0 0 14 17 44 13 358 -35 122 54 12 124 28 13 121 22 10 126 8 38
124 12 37 -27 0 0 14 17 39 14 358 -36 123 25 51 125 0 26 121 53 23 126 41 34
124 47 1 -26 0 0 14 17 33 15 357 -37 123 59 54 125 35 13 122 26 50 127 17 17
125 23 59 -25 0 0 14 17 27 16 357 -38 124 36 26 126 12 40 123 2 35 127 55 54
126 3 39 -24 0 0 14 17 20 17 357 -39 125 15 33 126 52 56 123 40 45 128 37 36
126 46 8 -23 0 0 14 17 13 18 356 -40 125 57 23 127 36 9 124 21 25 129 22 32
127 31 38 -22 0 0 14 17 5 19 356 -42 126 42 6 128 22 30 125 4 44 130 10 59
128 20 20 -21 0 0 14 16 57 20 355 -43 127 29 52 129 12 15 125 50 51 131 3 12
129 12 30 -20 0 0 14 16 48 21 354 -44 128 20 55 130 5 38 126 39 57 131 59 33
130 8 27 -19 0 0 14 16 38 21 354 -45 129 15 33 131 3 2 127 32 17 133 0 31
131 8 33 -18 0 0 14 16 28 22 353 -47 130 14 5 132 4 53 128 28 6 134 6 41
132 13 17 -17 0 0 14 16 16 23 352 -48 131 16 58 133 11 44 129 27 44 135 18 47
133 23 18 -16 0 0 14 16 4 24 351 -49 132 24 43 134 24 19 130 31 38 136 37 53
134 39 23 -15 0 0 14 15 51 25 350 -50 133 38 2 135 43 34 131 40 17 138 5 26
136 2 38 -14 0 0 14 15 37 26 349 -52 134 57 50 137 10 51 132 54 23 139 43 33
137 34 34 -13 0 0 14 15 21 26 348 -53 136 25 23 138 48 3 134 14 48 141 35 36
139 17 28 -12 0 0 14 15 3 27 347 -55 138 2 26 140 38 8 135 42 42 143 47 34
141 14 54 -11 0 0 14 14 44 27 346 -56 139 51 42 142 46 6 137 19 48 146 32 1
143 33 15 -10 0 0 14 14 20 28 344 -57 141 57 39 145 21 51 139 8 35 150 29 8
144 0 0 - 9 49 40 14 14 16 28 344 -57 - 9 10 26 -10 29 49 - 7 53 1 -11 54 54
145 0 0 - 9 27 54 14 14 6 28 343 -58 - 8 49 7 -10 7 36 - 7 32 30 -11 31 38
146 0 0 - 9 8 5 14 13 56 28 342 -58 - 8 29 41 - 9 47 22 - 7 13 47 -11 10 27
147 0 0 - 8 50 10 14 13 47 28 342 -59 - 8 12 6 - 9 29 4 - 6 56 49 -10 51 20
Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs
Prediction of 2009 Nov 15.0
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