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Updated: 2009 DEC 10, 10:42 UT
Event Rank : 60
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2009 Dec 31 UT, the 69 km diameter asteroid (943) Begonia will occult a 13.3 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a path across New Zealand, through Cook Straight (including Wellington) and across Australia from Ballina in northeastern New South Wales passing just south of Brisbane then across southern Queensland and southern Northern Territory to western Western Australia near Canarvon at decreasing elevation.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.6 mag to 12.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
177 51 15 -44 0 0 11 48 15 27 9 -23 178 53 57 176 47 36 -179 0 50 174 34 35
176 36 24 -43 0 0 11 48 26 28 11 -24 177 39 11 175 32 38 179 44 29 173 19 11
175 19 35 -42 0 0 11 48 38 29 12 -25 176 22 34 174 15 33 178 28 8 172 1 25
174 0 36 -41 0 0 11 48 51 29 14 -25 175 3 55 172 56 12 177 9 59 170 41 5
172 39 18 -40 0 0 11 49 4 30 15 -26 173 43 3 171 34 22 175 49 52 169 17 57
171 15 25 -39 0 0 11 49 17 31 17 -27 172 19 47 170 9 49 174 27 36 167 51 45
169 48 44 -38 0 0 11 49 31 31 19 -28 170 53 51 168 42 17 173 2 58 166 22 9
168 18 57 -37 0 0 11 49 46 32 20 -28 169 25 0 167 11 27 171 35 44 164 48 45
166 45 41 -36 0 0 11 50 2 33 22 -29 167 52 54 165 36 55 170 5 38 163 11 6
165 8 34 -35 0 0 11 50 18 33 24 -30 166 17 10 163 58 13 168 32 21 161 28 37
163 27 3 -34 0 0 11 50 35 33 26 -30 164 37 22 162 14 49 166 55 29 159 40 34
161 40 32 -33 0 0 11 50 53 34 28 -30 162 52 55 160 25 59 165 14 36 157 46 2
159 48 14 -32 0 0 11 51 12 34 30 -31 161 3 7 158 30 50 163 29 9 155 43 46
157 49 7 -31 0 0 11 51 31 34 32 -31 159 7 6 156 28 10 161 38 25 153 32 4
155 41 49 -30 0 0 11 51 52 34 35 -31 157 3 43 154 16 23 159 41 34 151 8 33
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
154 0 0 -29 15 3 11 52 9 33 37 -31 -28 37 54 -29 52 52 -27 24 6 -31 12 20
153 0 0 -28 49 49 11 52 18 33 38 -31 -28 12 58 -29 27 19 -26 59 42 -30 46 6
152 0 0 -28 25 30 11 52 28 33 39 -31 -27 48 56 -29 2 44 -26 36 12 -30 20 52
151 0 0 -28 2 8 11 52 37 33 40 -31 -27 25 49 -28 39 5 -26 13 34 -29 56 36
150 0 0 -27 39 41 11 52 47 32 41 -30 -27 3 37 -28 16 22 -25 51 50 -29 33 19
149 0 0 -27 18 9 11 52 56 32 42 -30 -26 42 19 -27 54 35 -25 30 58 -29 10 59
148 0 0 -26 57 32 11 53 5 32 43 -30 -26 21 55 -27 33 44 -25 11 0 -28 49 37
147 0 0 -26 37 50 11 53 14 31 44 -30 -26 2 26 -27 13 49 -24 51 54 -28 29 13
146 0 0 -26 19 3 11 53 23 31 45 -29 -25 43 51 -26 54 50 -24 33 42 -28 9 46
145 0 0 -26 1 11 11 53 32 31 46 -29 -25 26 9 -26 36 46 -24 16 21 -27 51 17
144 0 0 -25 44 13 11 53 40 30 47 -29 -25 9 22 -26 19 37 -23 59 54 -27 33 44
143 0 0 -25 28 10 11 53 49 30 47 -28 -24 53 29 -26 3 24 -23 44 19 -27 17 8
142 0 0 -25 13 1 11 53 57 29 48 -28 -24 38 29 -25 48 6 -23 29 36 -27 1 29
141 0 0 -24 58 46 11 54 5 29 49 -28 -24 24 23 -25 33 42 -23 15 46 -26 46 46
140 0 0 -24 45 26 11 54 13 28 50 -27 -24 11 10 -25 20 14 -23 2 49 -26 32 59
139 0 0 -24 33 0 11 54 21 28 51 -27 -23 58 51 -25 7 40 -22 50 43 -26 20 9
138 0 0 -24 21 28 11 54 29 27 51 -26 -23 47 26 -24 56 1 -22 39 30 -26 8 15
137 0 0 -24 10 50 11 54 37 27 52 -26 -23 36 54 -24 45 17 -22 29 9 -25 57 18
136 0 0 -24 1 6 11 54 44 26 53 -25 -23 27 15 -24 35 28 -22 19 41 -25 47 16
135 0 0 -23 52 16 11 54 51 25 54 -25 -23 18 30 -24 26 33 -22 11 5 -25 38 10
134 0 0 -23 44 20 11 54 58 25 54 -24 -23 10 38 -24 18 33 -22 3 21 -25 30 0
133 0 0 -23 37 18 11 55 5 24 55 -23 -23 3 40 -24 11 27 -21 56 30 -25 22 47
132 0 0 -23 31 11 11 55 12 23 56 -23 -22 57 35 -24 5 16 -21 50 31 -25 16 29
131 0 0 -23 25 57 11 55 19 23 56 -22 -22 52 24 -24 0 0 -21 45 24 -25 11 7
130 0 0 -23 21 38 11 55 25 22 57 -22 -22 48 6 -23 55 39 -21 41 10 -25 6 42
129 0 0 -23 18 12 11 55 31 21 57 -21 -22 44 42 -23 52 12 -21 37 48 -25 3 12
128 0 0 -23 15 42 11 55 37 21 58 -20 -22 42 12 -23 49 41 -21 35 20 -25 0 39
127 0 0 -23 14 5 11 55 43 20 59 -19 -22 40 36 -23 48 4 -21 33 44 -24 59 2
126 0 0 -23 13 23 11 55 49 19 59 -19 -22 39 54 -23 47 23 -21 33 1 -24 58 22
125 0 0 -23 13 36 11 55 54 18 60 -18 -22 40 6 -23 47 37 -21 33 11 -24 58 38
124 0 0 -23 14 44 11 55 59 17 60 -17 -22 41 12 -23 48 46 -21 34 14 -24 59 51
123 0 0 -23 16 47 11 56 4 17 61 -17 -22 43 12 -23 50 51 -21 36 10 -25 2 1
122 0 0 -23 19 45 11 56 9 16 61 -16 -22 46 8 -23 53 52 -21 39 0 -25 5 8
121 0 0 -23 23 38 11 56 13 15 62 -15 -22 49 58 -23 57 49 -21 42 44 -25 9 13
120 0 0 -23 28 27 11 56 17 14 62 -14 -22 54 43 -24 2 42 -21 47 21 -25 14 15
119 0 0 -23 34 12 11 56 21 13 63 -13 -23 0 23 -24 8 32 -21 52 53 -25 20 15
118 0 0 -23 40 53 11 56 25 13 63 -13 -23 6 59 -24 15 18 -21 59 19 -25 27 13
117 0 0 -23 48 30 11 56 29 12 64 -12 -23 14 30 -24 23 1 -22 6 39 -25 35 10
116 0 0 -23 57 4 11 56 32 11 64 -11 -23 22 58 -24 31 42 -22 14 54 -25 44 5
115 0 0 -24 6 35 11 56 35 10 64 -10 -23 32 22 -24 41 20 -22 24 5 -25 54 0
114 0 0 -24 17 3 11 56 38 9 65 -9 -23 42 42 -24 51 56 -22 34 10 -26 4 54
113 0 0 -24 28 29 11 56 41 8 65 -8 -23 53 59 -25 3 31 -22 45 11 -26 16 47
112 0 0 -24 40 52 11 56 43 7 66 -7 -24 6 14 -25 16 4 -22 57 9 -26 29 41
111 0 0 -24 54 14 11 56 45 6 66 -7 -24 19 26 -25 29 36 .. .. .. -26 43 36
Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs
Prediction of 2009 Dec 10.0
Use these links for further information:
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[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
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