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Updated: 2009 OCT 16, 23:56 UT
Event Rank : 22
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2009 Nov 19 UT, the 38 km diameter asteroid (6372) Walker will occult a 9.2 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a narrow but uncertain south-to-north path across Western Australia centred from Esperance to Kununurra.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 7.7 mag to 16.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
120 18 48 -39 49 36 12 50 2 63 299 -18 120 4 37 -39 46 21 120 33 2 -39 52 49 118 36 47 -39 25 38 122 3 8 -40 12 31
120 39 44 -38 33 21 12 50 12 64 296 -19 120 25 48 -38 30 9 120 53 44 -38 36 31 118 59 26 -38 9 45 122 22 15 -38 55 55
121 0 52 -37 17 23 12 50 23 64 293 -20 120 47 8 -37 14 15 121 14 37 -37 20 31 119 22 9 -36 54 9 122 41 41 -37 39 37
121 22 11 -36 1 42 12 50 33 64 291 -22 121 8 40 -35 58 36 121 35 44 -36 4 46 119 44 58 -35 38 48 123 1 26 -36 23 36
121 43 44 -34 46 12 12 50 43 64 288 -23 121 30 25 -34 43 9 121 57 5 -34 49 14 120 7 54 -34 23 38 123 21 32 -35 7 47
122 5 32 -33 30 53 12 50 53 64 285 -24 121 52 24 -33 27 53 122 18 42 -33 33 53 120 31 0 -33 8 38 123 41 59 -33 52 10
122 27 37 -32 15 42 12 51 3 64 282 -25 122 14 39 -32 12 44 122 40 37 -32 18 39 120 54 17 -31 53 46 124 2 48 -32 36 40
122 50 0 -31 0 36 12 51 14 64 279 -26 122 37 12 -30 57 40 123 2 51 -31 3 30 121 17 47 -30 38 57 124 24 1 -31 21 16
123 12 44 -29 45 32 12 51 24 64 276 -27 123 0 4 -29 42 39 123 25 25 -29 48 24 121 41 33 -29 24 11 124 45 39 -30 5 56
123 35 49 -28 30 29 12 51 34 64 273 -28 123 23 17 -28 27 38 123 48 22 -28 33 18 122 5 36 -28 9 25 125 7 44 -28 50 35
123 59 18 -27 15 23 12 51 44 63 271 -30 123 46 54 -27 12 35 124 11 44 -27 18 10 122 29 58 -26 54 36 125 30 18 -27 35 13
124 23 12 -26 0 12 12 51 54 63 268 -31 124 10 55 -25 57 26 124 35 31 -26 2 57 122 54 42 -25 39 42 125 53 21 -26 19 45
124 47 35 -24 44 54 12 52 5 62 265 -32 124 35 24 -24 42 10 124 59 47 -24 47 37 123 19 50 -24 24 40 126 16 56 -25 4 11
125 12 27 -23 29 26 12 52 15 62 263 -33 125 0 22 -23 26 44 125 24 34 -23 32 7 123 45 23 -23 9 28 126 41 6 -23 48 27
125 37 52 -22 13 45 12 52 25 61 261 -34 125 25 52 -22 11 6 125 49 53 -22 16 24 124 11 26 -21 54 3 127 5 52 -22 32 30
126 3 51 -20 57 49 12 52 35 61 258 -36 125 51 56 -20 55 12 126 15 48 -21 0 25 124 37 59 -20 38 23 127 31 17 -21 16 18
126 30 29 -19 41 35 12 52 45 60 256 -37 126 18 38 -19 39 0 126 42 21 -19 44 9 125 5 7 -19 22 24 127 57 23 -19 59 47
126 57 47 -18 24 59 12 52 56 59 254 -38 126 46 0 -18 22 26 127 9 36 -18 27 31 125 32 52 -18 6 4 128 24 14 -18 42 55
127 25 49 -17 7 59 12 53 6 58 252 -39 127 14 5 -17 5 28 127 37 35 -17 10 28 126 1 17 -16 49 20 128 51 53 -17 25 39
127 54 39 -15 50 31 12 53 16 57 250 -41 127 42 58 -15 48 3 128 6 22 -15 52 58 126 30 26 -15 32 8 129 20 24 -16 7 54
128 24 21 -14 32 32 12 53 26 56 249 -42 128 12 42 -14 30 6 128 36 2 -14 34 57 127 0 24 -14 14 26 129 49 50 -14 49 38
128 54 59 -13 13 58 12 53 36 55 247 -43 128 43 21 -13 11 34 129 6 38 -13 16 20 127 31 13 -12 56 8 130 20 17 -13 30 46
129 26 38 -11 54 45 12 53 47 54 246 -44 129 15 1 -11 52 23 129 38 16 -11 57 5 128 3 0 -11 37 12 130 51 49 -12 11 15
129 59 23 -10 34 48 12 53 57 53 244 -46 129 47 47 -10 32 30 130 11 1 -10 37 6 128 35 49 -10 17 34 131 24 32 -10 51 0
130 33 21 - 9 14 4 12 54 7 52 243 -47 130 21 45 - 9 11 48 130 44 59 - 9 16 19 129 9 47 - 8 57 7 131 58 32 - 9 29 56
Uncertainty in time = +/- 10 secs
Prediction of 2009 Oct 16.0
Use these links for further information:
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[Observing Details]
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