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Updated: 2009 SEP 22, 03:05 UT
Event Rank : 70
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2009 Nov 05 UT, the 61 km diameter asteroid (1315) Bronislawa will occult a 11.5 mag star in the constellation Orion for observers along a path passing just north of Whangarei in New Zealand in morning twilight.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.1 mag to 15.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 9.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
158 10 22 -44 0 0 16 55 46 26 353 -11 157 10 5 159 11 34 155 30 47 160 56 41
159 32 12 -43 0 0 16 55 27 27 352 -11 158 31 39 160 33 45 156 51 58 162 19 34
160 56 35 -42 0 0 16 55 6 27 350 -11 159 55 37 161 58 37 158 15 20 163 45 24
162 23 44 -41 0 0 16 54 45 28 349 -11 161 22 12 163 26 24 159 41 7 165 14 25
163 53 56 -40 0 0 16 54 23 29 347 -10 162 51 40 164 57 24 161 9 32 166 46 59
165 27 28 -39 0 0 16 53 59 30 345 -10 164 24 18 166 31 57 162 40 51 168 23 29
167 4 45 -38 0 0 16 53 34 30 343 -9 166 0 28 168 10 28 164 15 22 170 4 24
168 46 13 -37 0 0 16 53 8 31 342 -8 167 40 34 169 53 26 165 53 27 171 50 20
170 32 25 -36 0 0 16 52 41 31 340 -8 169 25 6 171 41 30 167 35 33 173 41 59
172 24 3 -35 0 0 16 52 12 32 338 -7 171 14 41 173 35 24 169 22 9 175 40 21
174 21 58 -34 0 0 16 51 41 32 335 -6 173 10 6 175 36 7 171 13 56 177 46 40
176 27 19 -33 0 0 16 51 9 32 333 -5 175 12 20 177 45 0 173 11 41 -179 57 22
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
177 0 0 -32 44 59 16 51 0 32 333 -4 -32 10 9 -33 20 29 -31 12 59 -34 21 41
178 0 0 -32 18 7 16 50 45 32 332 -4 -31 43 35 -32 53 17 -30 46 54 -33 53 54
179 0 0 -31 52 8 16 50 29 32 330 -3 -31 17 53 -32 26 59 -30 21 39 -33 27 3
180 0 0 -31 27 1 16 50 14 32 329 -3 -30 53 3 -32 1 35 -29 57 15 -33 1 7
-179 0 0 -31 2 47 16 49 59 32 328 -2 -30 29 4 -31 37 4 -29 33 41 -32 36 6
-178 0 0 -30 39 25 16 49 44 32 327 -2 -30 5 57 -31 13 26 -29 10 57 -32 12 0
-177 0 0 -30 16 55 16 49 28 32 326 -1 -29 43 41 -30 50 41 -28 49 4 -31 48 48
-176 0 0 -29 55 16 16 49 14 32 325 0 -29 22 17 -30 28 49 -28 28 0 -31 26 31
Uncertainty in time = +/- 9 secs
Prediction of 2009 Sep 17.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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