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Updated: 2009 SEP 22, 02:44 UT
Event Rank : 11
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2009 Nov 03 UT, the 15 km diameter asteroid (4467) Kaidanovskij will occult a 10.4 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a narrow but uncertain south-to-north path across Western Australia passing near Hopetoun, Newman and Broome.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.8 mag to 16.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
119 50 0 -37 15 48 12 56 12 68 315 -24 119 44 44 -37 15 20 119 55 16 -37 16 15 118 42 20 -37 9 39 120 58 9 -37 21 32
119 49 57 -35 50 31 12 56 28 69 312 -25 119 44 46 -35 50 4 119 55 7 -35 50 59 118 43 32 -35 44 27 120 56 49 -35 56 12
119 50 29 -34 25 46 12 56 45 70 309 -26 119 45 24 -34 25 19 119 55 34 -34 26 13 118 45 13 -34 19 45 120 56 11 -34 31 24
119 51 33 -33 1 28 12 57 1 71 305 -28 119 46 33 -33 1 2 119 56 33 -33 1 55 118 47 22 -32 55 31 120 56 10 -33 7 3
119 53 9 -31 37 35 12 57 18 71 302 -29 119 48 14 -31 37 8 119 58 5 -31 38 1 118 49 58 -31 31 41 120 56 46 -31 43 6
119 55 16 -30 14 2 12 57 34 72 298 -30 119 50 25 -30 13 35 120 0 7 -30 14 28 118 52 59 -30 8 12 120 57 57 -30 19 29
119 57 51 -28 50 46 12 57 50 72 294 -31 119 53 4 -28 50 20 120 2 38 -28 51 12 118 56 25 -28 45 0 120 59 41 -28 56 11
120 0 55 -27 27 45 12 58 7 73 290 -32 119 56 12 -27 27 19 120 5 39 -27 28 10 119 0 17 -27 22 2 121 1 57 -27 33 6
120 4 27 -26 4 54 12 58 23 73 285 -33 119 59 47 -26 4 29 120 9 7 -26 5 20 119 4 32 -25 59 15 121 4 44 -26 10 13
120 8 27 -24 42 13 12 58 40 73 280 -34 120 3 50 -24 41 47 120 13 3 -24 42 38 119 9 12 -24 36 37 121 8 3 -24 47 28
120 12 53 -23 19 36 12 58 56 73 276 -35 120 8 19 -23 19 11 120 17 27 -23 20 1 119 14 16 -23 14 4 121 11 52 -23 24 48
120 17 47 -21 57 2 12 59 12 73 271 -35 120 13 16 -21 56 37 120 22 19 -21 57 27 119 19 44 -21 51 33 121 16 11 -22 2 11
120 23 9 -20 34 27 12 59 29 73 266 -36 120 18 40 -20 34 3 120 27 38 -20 34 52 119 25 38 -20 29 1 121 21 1 -20 39 33
120 28 58 -19 11 49 12 59 45 73 262 -37 120 24 32 -19 11 25 120 33 25 -19 12 13 119 31 56 -19 6 26 121 26 21 -19 16 52
120 35 16 -17 49 5 13 0 1 73 257 -38 120 30 52 -17 48 40 120 39 40 -17 49 29 119 38 40 -17 43 45 121 32 12 -17 54 4
120 42 2 -16 26 11 13 0 18 72 253 -39 120 37 40 -16 25 47 120 46 25 -16 26 34 119 45 50 -16 20 55 121 38 34 -16 31 7
120 49 19 -15 3 5 13 0 34 71 249 -40 120 44 58 -15 2 41 120 53 40 -15 3 28 119 53 28 -14 57 52 121 45 29 -15 7 58
120 57 6 -13 39 43 13 0 51 71 246 -41 120 52 46 -13 39 20 121 1 25 -13 40 6 120 1 34 -13 34 33 121 52 57 -13 44 33
121 5 25 -12 16 3 13 1 7 70 243 -42 121 1 6 -12 15 39 121 9 43 -12 16 26 120 10 10 -12 10 56 122 0 58 -12 20 49
121 14 16 -10 52 0 13 1 23 69 240 -43 121 10 0 -10 51 37 121 18 33 -10 52 23 120 19 16 -10 46 57 122 9 36 -10 56 44
Uncertainty in time = +/- 10 secs
Prediction of 2009 Sep 22.0
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