|
|
Updated: 2009 AUG 06, 13:17 UT
Event Rank : 65
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2009 Sep 12 UT, the 89 km diameter asteroid (143) Adria will occult a 11.5 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a path near the west coast of New Zealand, at very low elevation.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.9 mag to 14.3 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
156 42 23 -53 26 56 12 53 34 27 251 -40 155 24 50 -53 29 21 158 1 44 -53 23 14 153 5 10 -53 30 47 160 34 26 -53 12 36
157 59 49 -52 18 8 12 53 39 26 249 -41 156 42 11 -52 21 53 159 19 20 -52 13 1 154 22 32 -52 25 34 161 52 36 -51 59 26
159 19 46 -51 6 52 12 53 44 24 248 -43 158 1 47 -51 12 7 160 39 46 -51 0 8 155 41 42 -51 18 18 163 14 21 -50 43 8
160 42 54 -49 52 41 12 53 49 23 246 -44 159 24 13 -49 59 38 162 3 47 -49 44 4 157 3 10 -50 8 40 164 40 38 -49 23 3
162 10 4 -48 34 59 12 53 54 22 245 -45 160 50 13 -48 43 57 163 32 21 -48 24 10 158 27 32 -48 56 14 166 12 46 -47 58 15
163 42 25 -47 13 0 12 53 59 20 244 -47 162 20 48 -47 24 22 165 6 51 -46 59 27 159 55 36 -47 40 30 167 52 39 -46 27 22
165 21 34 -45 45 33 12 54 4 18 242 -48 163 57 19 -45 59 56 166 49 13 -45 28 32 161 28 22 -46 20 46 169 43 20 -44 48 12
167 10 0 -44 10 54 12 54 9 17 241 -50 165 41 48 -44 29 14 168 42 37 -43 49 11 163 7 18 -44 55 59 171 50 11 -42 56 55
169 11 52 -42 26 6 12 54 14 14 239 -52 167 37 26 -42 50 0 170 52 37 -41 57 24 164 54 33 -43 24 42 174 24 41 -40 45 16
171 35 11 -40 25 28 12 54 19 12 237 -53 169 49 55 -40 58 12 173 31 22 -39 44 35 166 53 31 -41 44 28 178 4 5 -37 46 43
174 40 28 -37 54 29 12 54 24 8 235 -55 172 31 42 -38 45 3 177 19 26 -36 41 58 169 10 29 -39 50 55 ... .. .. .. .. ..
-178 57 45 -33 4 27 12 54 29 1 231 -58 176 25 2 -35 40 48 ... .. .. .. .. .. 171 59 32 -37 34 7 ... .. .. .. .. ..
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2009 Aug 6.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]