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Updated: 2009 JUN 24, 17:30 UT
Event Rank : 38
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2009 Jul 06 UT, the 38 km diameter asteroid (1540) Kevola will occult a 10.8 mag star in the constellation Piscis Austrinus for observers along a significant uncertainty path across Queensland, passing near Mackay, central New South Wales, over Wagga Wagga, across eastern Victoria, over Sale and then across eastern Tasmania, passing over Launceston and Hobart.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.0 mag to 15.8 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
150 3 57 -18 26 18 19 51 22 59 250 -10 150 16 18 -18 26 42 149 51 38 -18 25 52 150 58 57 -18 27 56 149 9 28 -18 24 14
149 46 15 -19 44 5 19 51 44 59 252 -11 149 58 40 -19 44 31 149 33 51 -19 43 38 150 41 35 -19 45 49 148 51 24 -19 41 56
149 29 25 -21 1 32 19 52 5 60 254 -11 149 41 55 -21 1 58 149 16 56 -21 1 4 150 25 8 -21 3 20 148 34 11 -20 59 18
149 13 27 -22 18 40 19 52 26 60 257 -12 149 26 3 -22 19 8 149 0 52 -22 18 11 150 9 36 -22 20 33 148 17 48 -22 16 22
148 58 21 -23 35 34 19 52 47 61 259 -12 149 11 4 -23 36 3 148 45 40 -23 35 4 149 54 58 -23 37 31 148 2 14 -23 33 11
148 44 6 -24 52 15 19 53 8 61 261 -13 148 56 56 -24 52 44 148 31 18 -24 51 44 149 41 15 -24 54 16 147 47 28 -24 49 49
148 30 43 -26 8 46 19 53 30 61 263 -13 148 43 41 -26 9 16 148 17 48 -26 8 14 149 28 26 -26 10 50 147 33 31 -26 6 16
148 18 13 -27 25 10 19 53 51 61 266 -14 148 31 18 -27 25 40 148 5 9 -27 24 37 149 16 32 -27 27 17 147 20 24 -27 22 36
148 6 34 -28 41 28 19 54 12 62 268 -14 148 19 49 -28 42 0 147 53 22 -28 40 55 149 5 34 -28 43 38 147 8 6 -28 38 52
147 55 50 -29 57 44 19 54 33 62 270 -15 148 9 14 -29 58 16 147 42 27 -29 57 10 148 55 33 -29 59 56 146 56 38 -29 55 5
147 46 1 -31 13 59 19 54 54 62 273 -15 147 59 36 -31 14 32 147 32 28 -31 13 25 148 46 31 -31 16 13 146 46 3 -31 11 18
147 37 9 -32 30 16 19 55 16 62 275 -16 147 50 55 -32 30 49 147 23 24 -32 29 42 148 38 29 -32 32 32 146 36 21 -32 27 34
147 29 16 -33 46 38 19 55 37 62 278 -16 147 43 14 -33 47 11 147 15 19 -33 46 3 148 31 31 -33 48 55 146 27 34 -33 43 54
147 22 24 -35 3 6 19 55 58 61 280 -16 147 36 36 -35 3 40 147 8 15 -35 2 31 148 25 38 -35 5 24 146 19 45 -35 0 21
147 16 37 -36 19 43 19 56 19 61 282 -17 147 31 3 -36 20 17 147 2 14 -36 19 8 148 20 54 -36 22 1 146 12 56 -36 16 57
147 11 59 -37 36 32 19 56 40 61 284 -17 147 26 40 -37 37 5 146 57 20 -37 35 57 148 17 24 -37 38 49 146 7 10 -37 33 45
147 8 33 -38 53 34 19 57 2 60 287 -17 147 23 30 -38 54 7 146 53 38 -38 52 59 148 15 11 -38 55 51 146 2 32 -38 50 47
147 6 25 -40 10 52 19 57 23 60 289 -18 147 21 39 -40 11 25 146 51 12 -40 10 17 148 14 21 -40 13 8 145 59 6 -40 8 6
147 5 39 -41 28 29 19 57 44 59 291 -18 147 21 13 -41 29 2 146 50 7 -41 27 54 148 15 1 -41 30 43 145 56 57 -41 25 44
147 6 24 -42 46 27 19 58 5 59 293 -18 147 22 18 -42 46 59 146 50 31 -42 45 53 148 17 18 -42 48 38 145 56 11 -42 43 43
147 8 46 -44 4 48 19 58 26 58 294 -19 147 25 3 -44 5 20 146 52 31 -44 4 15 148 21 20 -44 6 56 145 56 55 -44 2 7
Uncertainty in time = +/- 11 secs
Prediction of 2009 Jun 25.0
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