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Updated: 2009 FEB 05, 23:49 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2009 Mar 15 UT, the 256 km diameter asteroid (31) Euphrosyne will occult a 12.2 mag star in the constellation Corona Australis for observers along a path across Eastern Australia including Brisbane and Sydney. Canberra is within the 1-sigma uncertainty area. Low altitude event.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.5 mag to 13.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 12.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
146 53 24 -21 15 24 13 50 22 5 134 -66 152 50 59 -25 37 22 ... .. .. .. .. .. 155 37 40 -27 18 54 ... .. .. .. .. ..
148 39 26 -23 43 26 13 50 26 8 133 -64 153 36 38 -27 5 51 ... .. .. .. .. .. 156 12 52 -28 36 31 ... .. .. .. .. ..
149 48 1 -25 35 40 13 50 30 10 133 -62 154 14 28 -28 27 8 ... .. .. .. .. .. 156 43 9 -29 49 44 ... .. .. .. .. ..
150 39 22 -27 11 40 13 50 34 11 132 -61 154 46 21 -29 43 4 143 58 23 -22 4 36 157 9 21 -30 59 24 ... .. .. .. .. ..
151 20 5 -28 37 44 13 50 38 13 132 -59 155 13 28 -30 54 49 145 57 50 -24 48 39 157 32 6 -32 6 8 ... .. .. .. .. ..
151 53 14 -29 56 57 13 50 42 14 131 -58 155 36 39 -32 3 11 147 6 57 -26 44 9 157 51 50 -33 10 23 ... .. .. .. .. ..
152 20 37 -31 11 0 13 50 46 15 131 -57 155 56 25 -33 8 43 147 56 26 -28 20 58 158 8 53 -34 12 29 143 30 17 -24 56 29
152 43 19 -32 21 2 13 50 50 16 130 -56 156 13 13 -34 11 50 148 34 19 -29 46 58 158 23 31 -35 12 42 144 49 45 -27 4 12
153 2 5 -33 27 45 13 50 53 17 130 -55 156 27 19 -35 12 52 149 4 11 -31 5 40 158 35 55 -36 11 16 145 42 9 -28 45 51
153 17 28 -34 31 43 13 50 57 18 130 -54 156 39 0 -36 12 4 149 27 58 -32 18 58 158 46 14 -37 8 21 146 20 29 -30 14 15
153 29 49 -35 33 19 13 51 1 19 129 -53 156 48 25 -37 9 39 149 46 50 -33 28 4 158 54 36 -38 4 5 146 49 36 -31 34 11
153 39 27 -36 32 52 13 51 5 20 129 -52 156 55 42 -38 5 46 150 1 36 -34 33 45 159 1 6 -38 58 36 147 11 57 -32 48 4
153 46 33 -37 30 36 13 51 9 20 129 -51 157 1 0 -39 0 34 150 12 48 -35 36 35 159 5 50 -39 52 1 147 28 57 -33 57 20
153 51 19 -38 26 44 13 51 13 21 128 -50 157 4 22 -39 54 10 150 20 49 -36 36 59 159 8 50 -40 44 24 147 41 30 -35 2 54
153 53 52 -39 21 24 13 51 17 21 128 -49 157 5 53 -40 46 39 150 25 57 -37 35 16 159 10 9 -41 35 50 147 50 13 -36 5 24
153 54 18 -40 14 44 13 51 21 22 128 -48 157 5 36 -41 38 6 150 28 25 -38 31 41 159 9 50 -42 26 23 147 55 33 -37 5 19
153 52 41 -41 6 51 13 51 25 23 127 -47 157 3 32 -42 28 36 150 28 23 -39 26 25 159 7 52 -43 16 6 147 57 48 -38 2 58
153 49 4 -41 57 50 13 51 29 23 127 -46 156 59 44 -43 18 12 150 25 58 -40 19 37 159 4 18 -44 5 2 147 57 13 -38 58 38
153 43 30 -42 47 45 13 51 33 23 127 -45 156 54 12 -44 6 57 150 21 15 -41 11 26 158 59 6 -44 53 13 147 53 58 -39 52 31
153 36 1 -43 36 41 13 51 37 24 127 -45 156 46 56 -44 54 54 150 14 20 -42 1 58 158 52 17 -45 40 42 147 48 11 -40 44 47
153 26 37 -44 24 41 13 51 41 24 126 -44 156 37 56 -45 42 6 150 5 14 -42 51 17 158 43 50 -46 27 31 147 39 58 -41 35 33
153 15 18 -45 11 47 13 51 44 25 126 -43 156 27 11 -46 28 33 149 54 0 -43 39 28 158 33 43 -47 13 40 147 29 23 -42 24 57
153 2 4 -45 58 1 13 51 48 25 126 -42 156 14 40 -47 14 17 149 40 39 -44 26 35 158 21 56 -47 59 12 147 16 29 -43 13 4
152 46 53 -46 43 26 13 51 52 25 126 -41 156 0 21 -47 59 20 149 25 12 -45 12 40 158 8 25 -48 44 7 147 1 17 -43 59 57
152 29 46 -47 28 2 13 51 56 26 126 -41 155 44 11 -48 43 44 149 7 37 -45 57 46 157 53 9 -49 28 27 146 43 50 -44 45 40
152 10 38 -48 11 51 13 52 0 26 126 -40 155 26 10 -49 27 27 148 47 54 -46 41 55 157 36 5 -50 12 11 146 24 7 -45 30 16
151 49 29 -48 54 54 13 52 4 26 125 -39 155 6 12 -50 10 33 148 26 2 -47 25 7 157 17 10 -50 55 21 146 2 8 -46 13 47
151 26 16 -49 37 12 13 52 8 26 125 -38 154 44 17 -50 52 59 148 1 58 -48 7 25 156 56 20 -51 37 56 145 37 51 -46 56 14
151 0 55 -50 18 44 13 52 12 26 125 -38 154 20 19 -51 34 48 147 35 42 -48 48 48 156 33 31 -52 19 58 145 11 16 -47 37 39
150 33 23 -50 59 30 13 52 16 27 125 -37 153 54 15 -52 15 58 147 7 9 -49 29 16 156 8 39 -53 1 25 144 42 21 -48 18 2
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
[Prediction of 2009 Feb 6.0]
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[Observing Details]
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