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Updated: 2008 NOV 14, 06:40 UT
Event Rank : 79
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2008 Dec 26 UT, the 88 km diameter asteroid (866) Fatme will occult a 11.8 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a path centred between Auckland and Whangerei in New Zealand.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.6 mag to 15.3 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
161 53 41 -45 44 1 10 29 54 28 281 -12 160 46 48 -45 29 1 163 3 5 -45 58 36 159 18 20 -45 7 42 164 43 25 -46 17 57
162 37 5 -45 4 59 10 29 57 27 280 -13 161 30 5 -44 50 19 163 46 38 -45 19 13 160 1 30 -44 29 27 165 27 13 -45 38 3
163 21 26 -44 25 55 10 30 0 27 279 -13 162 14 16 -44 11 36 164 31 13 -44 39 47 160 45 28 -43 51 11 166 12 12 -44 58 5
164 6 50 -43 46 46 10 30 4 26 278 -14 162 59 23 -43 32 48 165 16 56 -44 0 15 161 30 17 -43 12 51 166 58 28 -44 18 0
164 53 21 -43 7 31 10 30 7 26 277 -15 163 45 33 -42 53 55 166 3 53 -43 20 37 162 16 1 -42 34 27 167 46 8 -43 37 46
165 41 5 -42 28 8 10 30 10 25 276 -16 164 32 49 -42 14 55 166 52 9 -42 40 49 163 2 46 -41 55 56 168 35 19 -42 57 22
166 30 9 -41 48 35 10 30 13 25 275 -17 165 21 19 -41 35 46 167 41 53 -42 0 51 163 50 35 -41 17 19 169 26 9 -42 16 45
167 20 41 -41 8 50 10 30 16 24 274 -18 166 11 9 -40 56 27 168 33 13 -41 20 39 164 39 36 -40 38 32 170 18 50 -41 35 51
168 12 49 -40 28 52 10 30 19 24 274 -19 167 2 26 -40 16 55 169 26 18 -40 40 11 165 29 56 -39 59 34 171 13 33 -40 54 39
169 6 43 -39 48 36 10 30 23 23 273 -20 167 55 21 -39 37 8 170 21 22 -39 59 24 166 21 41 -39 20 23 172 10 34 -40 13 3
170 2 36 -39 8 0 10 30 26 22 272 -21 168 50 4 -38 57 3 171 18 39 -39 18 14 167 15 2 -38 40 57 173 10 11 -39 31 0
171 0 44 -38 27 0 10 30 29 22 271 -22 169 46 47 -38 16 37 172 18 25 -38 36 37 168 10 8 -38 1 12 174 12 47 -38 48 23
172 1 22 -37 45 32 10 30 32 21 270 -23 170 45 46 -37 35 46 173 21 2 -37 54 28 169 7 12 -37 21 6 175 18 49 -38 5 6
173 4 55 -37 3 31 10 30 35 20 269 -24 171 47 19 -36 54 25 174 26 57 -37 11 39 170 6 29 -36 40 34 176 28 55 -37 21 1
174 11 48 -36 20 49 10 30 39 19 268 -25 172 51 49 -36 12 30 175 36 45 -36 28 4 171 8 18 -35 59 34 177 43 53 -36 35 55
175 22 39 -35 37 18 10 30 42 18 267 -26 173 59 45 -35 29 52 176 51 11 -35 43 31 172 12 59 -35 17 58 179 4 54 -35 49 32
176 38 14 -34 52 48 10 30 45 17 266 -27 175 11 43 -34 46 24 178 11 17 -34 57 45 173 21 2 -34 35 41 -179 26 26 -35 1 31
177 59 38 -34 7 3 10 30 48 16 265 -28 176 28 34 -34 1 54 179 38 33 -34 10 27 174 33 1 -33 52 35 -177 47 30 -34 11 14
179 28 24 -33 19 41 10 30 51 14 264 -29 177 51 25 -33 16 6 -178 44 45 -33 21 4 175 49 45 -33 8 27 -175 53 52 -33 17 41
-178 53 3 -32 30 9 10 30 54 13 263 -31 179 21 55 -32 28 36 -176 54 51 -32 28 44 177 12 18 -32 23 3 -173 36 30 -32 18 49
-177 0 42 -31 37 33 10 30 58 11 262 -32 -178 57 21 -31 38 51 -174 44 28 -31 31 50 178 42 15 -31 36 1 -170 29 54 -31 8 53
-174 46 39 -30 40 5 10 31 1 9 261 -34 -177 2 2 -30 45 50 -171 55 34 -30 26 15 -179 38 3 -30 46 49 ... .. .. .. .. ..
-171 50 29 -29 33 7 10 31 4 7 259 -35 -174 43 20 -29 47 33 -166 40 13 -28 47 40 -177 44 34 -29 54 32 ... .. .. .. .. ..
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
[Prediction of 2008 Nov 14.0]
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