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Updated: 2008 OCT 30, 14:50 UT
Event Rank : 83
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2008 Nov 14 UT, the 81 km diameter asteroid (914) Palisana will occult a 12.9 mag star in the constellation Andromeda for observers along a path across Papua - New Guinea, from Aitape to Merauke, and across Australia from the Gulf of Carpentaria, across Central Australia to Port Lincon in South Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.5 mag to 12.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
135 0 51 -38 0 0 13 48 34 16 351 -32 134 28 5 135 33 46 133 47 1 136 15 27
135 3 14 -37 0 0 13 48 31 17 351 -33 134 30 54 135 35 44 133 50 21 136 16 52
135 6 25 -36 0 0 13 48 29 18 351 -34 134 34 28 135 38 30 133 54 24 136 19 8
135 10 20 -35 0 0 13 48 26 19 351 -35 134 38 46 135 42 3 133 59 10 136 22 12
135 14 59 -34 0 0 13 48 23 20 351 -36 134 43 46 135 46 20 134 4 37 136 26 3
135 20 20 -33 0 0 13 48 20 21 351 -37 134 49 27 135 51 22 134 10 43 136 30 39
135 26 23 -32 0 0 13 48 17 22 351 -38 134 55 49 135 57 6 134 17 28 136 35 59
135 33 6 -31 0 0 13 48 14 23 350 -39 135 2 49 136 3 31 134 24 51 136 42 2
135 40 29 -30 0 0 13 48 10 24 350 -40 135 10 28 136 10 37 134 32 50 136 48 46
135 48 30 -29 0 0 13 48 6 25 350 -41 135 18 45 136 18 22 134 41 26 136 56 12
135 57 8 -28 0 0 13 48 3 26 350 -42 135 27 38 136 26 46 134 50 38 137 4 18
136 6 25 -27 0 0 13 47 59 26 350 -43 135 37 8 136 35 49 135 0 24 137 13 3
136 16 17 -26 0 0 13 47 55 27 349 -44 135 47 13 136 45 29 135 10 46 137 22 27
136 26 46 -25 0 0 13 47 50 28 349 -45 135 57 54 136 55 46 135 21 41 137 32 29
136 37 51 -24 0 0 13 47 46 29 349 -46 136 9 10 137 6 40 135 33 11 137 43 9
136 49 32 -23 0 0 13 47 42 30 349 -47 136 21 1 137 18 11 135 45 14 137 54 27
137 1 48 -22 0 0 13 47 37 31 348 -48 136 33 26 137 30 18 135 57 51 138 6 22
137 14 39 -21 0 0 13 47 32 32 348 -49 136 46 26 137 43 1 136 11 1 138 18 55
137 28 6 -20 0 0 13 47 27 33 348 -50 137 0 0 137 56 19 136 24 45 138 32 4
137 42 8 -19 0 0 13 47 22 34 347 -51 137 14 8 138 10 14 136 39 2 138 45 50
137 56 45 -18 0 0 13 47 17 35 347 -52 137 28 51 138 24 45 136 53 53 139 0 13
138 11 57 -17 0 0 13 47 12 36 347 -53 137 44 9 138 39 52 137 9 18 139 15 14
138 27 45 -16 0 0 13 47 7 37 346 -54 138 0 2 138 55 36 137 25 16 139 30 51
138 44 9 -15 0 0 13 47 1 38 346 -55 138 16 29 139 11 56 137 41 49 139 47 6
139 1 9 -14 0 0 13 46 56 39 345 -56 138 33 33 139 28 53 137 58 56 140 4 0
139 18 45 -13 0 0 13 46 50 39 345 -57 138 51 12 139 46 27 138 16 38 140 21 31
139 36 59 -12 0 0 13 46 44 40 344 -58 139 9 27 140 4 39 138 34 56 140 39 41
139 55 50 -11 0 0 13 46 38 41 344 -59 139 28 19 140 23 29 138 53 49 140 58 30
140 15 19 -10 0 0 13 46 32 42 343 -60 139 47 49 140 42 58 139 13 19 141 17 59
140 35 28 - 9 0 0 13 46 25 43 343 -61 140 7 56 141 3 7 139 33 26 141 38 9
140 56 15 - 8 0 0 13 46 19 44 342 -62 140 28 43 141 23 56 139 54 11 141 59 0
141 17 43 - 7 0 0 13 46 12 45 342 -63 140 50 9 141 45 26 140 15 35 142 20 33
141 39 53 - 6 0 0 13 46 6 46 341 -64 141 12 15 142 7 38 140 37 38 142 42 49
142 2 45 - 5 0 0 13 45 59 46 340 -65 141 35 3 142 30 34 141 0 22 143 5 49
142 26 20 - 4 0 0 13 45 52 47 339 -67 141 58 34 142 54 14 141 23 47 143 29 35
142 50 39 - 3 0 0 13 45 45 48 339 -68 142 22 49 143 18 39 141 47 56 143 54 7
143 15 45 - 2 0 0 13 45 38 49 338 -69 142 47 48 143 43 50 142 12 48 144 19 27
143 41 38 - 1 0 0 13 45 31 49 337 -70 143 13 34 144 9 50 142 38 25 144 45 36
144 8 19 0 0 0 13 45 23 50 336 -71 143 40 8 144 36 40 143 4 50 145 12 36
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
[Prediction of 2008 Oct 30.0]
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