|
|
Updated: 2008 OCT 16, 01:36 UT
Event Rank : 43
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2008 Oct 28 UT, the 80 km diameter asteroid (245) Vera will occult a 13.5 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a significant uncertainty path running up the western coast of New Zealand, passing near Invercargill and Auckland.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by only 0.4 mag to 12.5 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 10.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
165 43 17 -47 22 24 11 8 5 47 298 -26 165 4 57 -47 8 56 166 22 13 -47 35 45 163 12 53 -46 27 39 168 23 52 -48 15 25
166 20 35 -46 24 57 11 8 20 47 297 -27 165 42 47 -46 11 43 166 59 0 -46 38 5 163 52 7 -45 31 8 168 58 53 -47 17 3
166 57 53 -45 27 46 11 8 35 47 295 -28 166 20 33 -45 14 45 167 35 49 -45 40 40 164 31 14 -44 34 50 169 34 5 -46 18 57
167 35 14 -44 30 47 11 8 50 47 293 -29 166 58 21 -44 17 59 168 12 42 -44 43 28 165 10 15 -43 38 43 170 9 27 -45 21 5
168 12 40 -43 33 59 11 9 5 47 292 -30 167 36 11 -43 21 24 168 49 42 -43 46 28 165 49 14 -42 42 46 170 45 5 -44 23 26
168 50 14 -42 37 21 11 9 20 47 290 -31 168 14 8 -42 24 58 169 26 52 -42 49 37 166 28 15 -41 46 58 171 20 58 -43 25 57
169 27 59 -41 40 51 11 9 35 47 289 -32 168 52 14 -41 28 40 170 4 16 -41 52 55 167 7 19 -40 51 16 171 57 11 -42 28 37
170 5 58 -40 44 27 11 9 50 46 287 -33 169 30 32 -40 32 28 170 41 55 -40 56 19 167 46 31 -39 55 40 172 33 46 -41 31 24
170 44 13 -39 48 8 11 10 5 46 285 -35 170 9 5 -39 36 21 171 19 52 -39 59 48 168 25 54 -39 0 8 173 10 45 -40 34 17
171 22 48 -38 51 52 11 10 21 46 284 -36 170 47 56 -38 40 17 171 58 10 -39 3 20 169 5 30 -38 4 38 173 48 10 -39 37 13
172 1 45 -37 55 37 11 10 36 46 282 -37 171 27 7 -37 44 14 172 36 53 -38 6 54 169 45 22 -37 9 9 174 26 6 -38 40 12
172 41 8 -36 59 22 11 10 51 45 281 -38 172 6 43 -36 48 10 173 16 3 -37 10 28 170 25 34 -36 13 39 175 4 34 -37 43 10
173 21 0 -36 3 6 11 11 6 45 279 -39 172 46 46 -35 52 5 173 55 43 -36 13 59 171 6 8 -35 18 7 175 43 38 -36 46 6
174 1 24 -35 6 46 11 11 21 44 278 -40 173 27 19 -34 55 56 174 35 58 -35 17 28 171 47 9 -34 22 32 176 23 21 -35 48 59
174 42 24 -34 10 20 11 11 36 44 277 -41 174 8 27 -33 59 42 175 16 49 -34 20 50 172 28 39 -33 26 51 177 3 48 -34 51 46
Uncertainty in time = +/- 16 secs
[Prediction of 2008 Oct 16.0]
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]