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Updated: 2008 SEP 17, 01:57 UT
Event Rank : 13
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2008 Oct 03 UT, the 20 km diameter asteroid (2696) Magion will occult a 6.5 mag star in the constellation Aquila for observers along a significantly uncertain path across northern Western Australia, central Northern Territory and Queensland.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 10.1 mag to 16.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: .
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
120 45 4 -10 4 57 15 11 0 36 280 -73 120 53 19 -10 3 24 120 36 50 -10 6 29 122 18 24 - 9 47 51 119 14 59 -10 22 12
121 33 37 -11 8 0 15 11 9 35 281 -73 121 42 2 -11 6 28 121 25 15 -11 9 33 123 8 45 -10 50 56 120 1 57 -11 25 16
122 25 20 -12 11 25 15 11 18 34 281 -72 122 33 54 -12 9 52 122 16 47 -12 12 58 124 2 32 -11 54 22 120 51 51 -12 28 40
123 20 32 -13 15 13 15 11 27 33 281 -72 123 29 18 -13 13 41 123 11 47 -13 16 46 125 0 6 -12 58 12 121 44 59 -13 32 28
124 19 38 -14 19 28 15 11 36 31 282 -71 124 28 39 -14 17 55 124 10 40 -14 21 0 126 1 57 -14 2 28 122 41 44 -14 36 41
125 23 10 -15 24 10 15 11 45 30 282 -70 125 32 27 -15 22 38 125 13 56 -15 25 43 127 8 42 -15 7 13 123 42 31 -15 41 23
126 31 44 -16 29 25 15 11 54 29 282 -69 126 41 20 -16 27 53 126 22 11 -16 30 57 128 21 3 -16 12 31 124 47 53 -16 46 36
127 46 7 -17 35 14 15 12 3 27 282 -68 127 56 5 -17 33 43 127 36 12 -17 36 46 129 39 59 -17 18 25 125 58 30 -17 52 22
129 7 20 -18 41 43 15 12 12 26 282 -67 129 17 45 -18 40 12 128 56 58 -18 43 14 131 6 44 -18 25 0 127 15 10 -18 58 47
130 36 41 -19 48 55 15 12 21 24 282 -66 130 47 40 -19 47 25 130 25 47 -19 50 26 132 43 1 -19 32 22 128 38 59 -20 5 54
132 16 1 -20 56 58 15 12 30 23 282 -65 132 27 42 -20 55 29 132 4 25 -20 58 28 134 31 18 -20 40 39 130 11 20 -21 13 48
134 7 55 -22 6 0 15 12 39 21 281 -63 134 20 33 -22 4 32 133 55 24 -22 7 28 136 35 17 -21 50 0 131 54 13 -22 22 36
136 16 25 -23 16 11 15 12 48 18 281 -62 136 30 22 -23 14 45 136 2 38 -23 17 37 139 1 14 -23 0 43 133 50 27 -23 32 28
138 48 19 -24 27 50 15 12 57 16 280 -60 139 4 15 -24 26 28 138 32 36 -24 29 13 142 1 17 -24 13 19 136 4 27 -24 43 35
141 57 6 -25 41 31 15 13 6 13 279 -58 142 16 35 -25 40 17 141 38 3 -25 42 47 146 7 0 -25 29 2 138 43 50 -25 56 18
146 19 32 -26 58 42 15 13 15 9 277 -55 146 48 5 -26 57 47 145 52 19 -26 59 40 ... .. .. .. .. .. 142 4 10 -27 11 16
Uncertainty in time = +/- 8 secs
[Prediction of 2008 Sep 17.0]
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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