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Updated: 2008 JUL 22, 18:29 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2008 Jul 30 UT, the 120 km diameter asteroid (141) Lumen will occult a 13.1 mag star in the constellation Pisces for observers along a path across western New Zealand.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by only 0.4 mag to 12.3 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
171 33 35 -47 0 0 17 33 57 22 1 -24 172 41 22 170 26 17 173 20 54 169 47 28
172 8 32 -46 0 0 17 34 0 23 1 -24 173 15 19 171 2 14 173 54 17 170 23 59
172 43 44 -45 0 0 17 34 4 24 0 -24 173 49 35 171 38 21 174 28 1 171 0 38
173 19 11 -44 0 0 17 34 8 25 359 -23 174 24 11 172 14 41 175 2 7 171 37 28
173 54 56 -43 0 0 17 34 12 26 359 -23 174 59 8 172 51 14 175 36 35 172 14 30
174 31 0 -42 0 0 17 34 16 27 358 -22 175 34 26 173 28 3 176 11 28 172 51 45
175 7 23 -41 0 0 17 34 20 28 357 -21 176 10 8 174 5 8 176 46 46 173 29 14
175 44 8 -40 0 0 17 34 25 29 357 -21 176 46 15 174 42 31 177 22 31 174 7 0
176 21 16 -39 0 0 17 34 29 30 356 -20 177 22 47 175 20 14 177 58 43 174 45 4
176 58 47 -38 0 0 17 34 34 31 355 -20 177 59 47 175 58 18 178 35 24 175 23 27
177 36 45 -37 0 0 17 34 39 32 355 -19 178 37 15 176 36 45 179 12 35 176 2 11
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
[Prediction of 2008 Jul 22.0]
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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