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Updated: 2008 JUN 19, 01:27 UT
Event Rank : 48
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2008 Jul 05 UT, the 53 km diameter asteroid (563) Suleika will occult a 11.6 mag star in the constellation Libra for observers along a path grazing the eastern coast of New Zealand, near Gisborne.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.6 mag to 14.1 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 11.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
-179 59 32 -36 51 41 10 11 32 50 302 -62 -179 38 9 -36 58 20 179 39 14 -36 45 1 -178 40 31 -37 15 55 178 43 26 -36 27 12
179 32 59 -37 59 45 10 12 0 50 304 -61 179 54 43 -38 6 29 179 11 24 -37 53 0 -179 6 44 -38 24 17 178 14 44 -37 34 57
179 6 8 -39 8 25 10 12 28 50 305 -60 179 28 14 -39 15 14 178 44 12 -39 1 35 -179 32 11 -39 33 16 177 46 36 -38 43 18
178 39 57 -40 17 44 10 12 56 49 307 -60 179 2 27 -40 24 39 178 17 37 -40 10 49 -179 56 52 -40 42 56 177 19 0 -39 52 17
178 14 28 -41 27 46 10 13 24 48 308 -59 178 37 24 -41 34 47 177 51 42 -41 20 45 179 39 17 -41 53 19 176 51 59 -41 1 57
177 49 42 -42 38 34 10 13 51 48 310 -58 178 13 7 -42 45 40 177 26 29 -42 31 26 179 16 17 -43 4 29 176 25 34 -42 12 22
177 25 43 -43 50 11 10 14 19 47 311 -57 177 49 38 -43 57 24 177 1 59 -43 42 56 178 54 14 -44 16 30 175 59 47 -43 23 35
Uncertainty in time = +/- 17 secs
[Prediction of 2008 Jun 19.0]
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[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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