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Updated: 2007 DEC 19, 03:16 UT
Event Rank : 98
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2007 Dec 27 UT, the 205 km diameter asteroid (94) Aurora will occult a 11.0 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a broad path across the North Island of New Zealand, from Tauranga and TikiTiki to Waitomo and Hawera.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.6 mag to 13.5 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 7.0 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
160 36 1 -44 9 1 9 23 2 31 289 -4 158 31 2 -43 19 43 162 51 48 -44 57 39 157 9 7 -42 44 56 164 34 21 -45 31 10
161 33 50 -43 31 47 9 23 5 30 288 -5 159 28 3 -42 43 13 163 50 34 -44 19 37 158 5 39 -42 8 54 165 33 53 -44 52 32
162 32 32 -42 54 33 9 23 8 30 287 -6 160 25 50 -42 6 43 164 50 24 -43 41 35 159 2 52 -41 32 53 166 34 40 -44 13 53
163 32 16 -42 17 17 9 23 11 29 286 -7 161 24 28 -41 30 12 165 51 27 -43 3 30 160 0 50 -40 56 50 167 36 51 -43 35 10
164 33 6 -41 39 58 9 23 15 29 285 -8 162 24 3 -40 53 38 166 53 50 -42 25 21 160 59 40 -40 20 46 168 40 35 -42 56 22
165 35 12 -41 2 35 9 23 18 28 284 -9 163 24 42 -40 17 1 167 57 45 -41 47 6 161 59 27 -39 44 39 169 46 4 -42 17 27
166 38 43 -40 25 6 9 23 21 27 283 -10 164 26 32 -39 40 19 169 3 22 -41 8 43 163 0 18 -39 8 27 170 53 32 -41 38 22
167 43 49 -39 47 28 9 23 24 27 281 -11 165 29 43 -39 3 30 170 10 55 -40 30 10 164 2 21 -38 32 9 172 3 14 -40 59 4
168 50 43 -39 9 40 9 23 28 26 280 -12 166 34 24 -38 26 33 171 20 39 -39 51 23 165 5 45 -37 55 44 173 15 32 -40 19 30
169 59 37 -38 31 39 9 23 31 25 279 -13 167 40 45 -37 49 26 172 32 54 -39 12 20 166 10 38 -37 19 10 174 30 47 -39 39 36
171 10 50 -37 53 23 9 23 34 24 278 -14 168 49 1 -37 12 6 173 48 1 -38 32 57 167 17 13 -36 42 24 175 49 30 -38 59 16
172 24 41 -37 14 48 9 23 37 23 277 -15 169 59 25 -36 34 30 175 6 29 -37 53 9 168 25 42 -36 5 26 177 12 19 -38 18 26
173 41 35 -36 35 49 9 23 41 22 276 -16 171 12 18 -35 56 37 176 28 54 -37 12 50 169 36 20 -35 28 12 178 40 2 -37 36 56
175 2 3 -35 56 23 9 23 44 21 275 -18 172 27 59 -35 18 21 177 56 4 -36 31 52 170 49 25 -34 50 38 -179 46 11 -36 54 35
176 26 44 -35 16 21 9 23 47 20 274 -19 173 46 58 -34 39 40 179 29 0 -35 50 6 172 5 20 -34 12 43 -178 4 46 -36 11 10
177 56 30 -34 35 37 9 23 50 19 273 -20 175 9 49 -34 0 26 -178 50 49 -35 7 18 173 24 32 -33 34 20 -176 13 18 -35 26 17
179 32 33 -33 53 59 9 23 53 18 271 -22 176 37 16 -33 20 33 -177 1 10 -34 23 7 174 47 36 -32 55 25 -174 7 50 -34 39 19
-178 43 27 -33 11 11 9 23 57 16 270 -23 178 10 18 -32 39 51 -174 58 32 -33 36 59 176 15 14 -32 15 50 -171 40 55 -33 49 8
-176 48 54 -32 26 49 9 24 0 15 269 -25 179 50 21 -31 58 8 -172 36 33 -32 47 57 177 48 28 -31 35 26 -168 34 58 -32 53 1
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