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Updated: 2007 DEC 06, 02:32 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2007 Dec 15 UT, the 116 km diameter asteroid (521) Brixia will occult a 11.2 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a broad path of fairly low uncertainty largely to the east of New Zealand, but just crossing the North Island north of Paihia. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.9 mag to 12.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
158 24 8 -50 48 53 10 14 30 40 300 -5 157 18 52 -50 25 9 159 31 35 -51 12 22 156 36 56 -50 9 23 160 17 22 -51 27 44
159 5 21 -49 58 24 10 14 35 40 299 -6 158 0 54 -49 35 5 160 11 56 -50 21 29 157 19 28 -49 19 34 160 57 6 -50 36 35
159 46 37 -49 8 12 10 14 39 40 297 -7 158 42 54 -48 45 16 160 52 23 -49 30 54 158 1 56 -48 30 1 161 36 59 -49 45 44
160 27 58 -48 18 15 10 14 44 40 296 -8 159 24 57 -47 55 42 161 33 0 -48 40 34 158 44 23 -47 40 42 162 17 4 -48 55 8
161 9 27 -47 28 32 10 14 49 40 295 -9 160 7 3 -47 6 21 162 13 48 -47 50 28 159 26 53 -46 51 35 162 57 23 -48 4 47
161 51 6 -46 39 1 10 14 53 40 293 -10 160 49 17 -46 17 12 162 54 49 -47 0 35 160 9 29 -46 2 40 163 37 58 -47 14 40
162 32 57 -45 49 41 10 14 58 40 292 -11 161 31 40 -45 28 13 163 36 6 -46 10 53 160 52 11 -45 13 55 164 18 51 -46 24 43
163 15 4 -45 0 30 10 15 3 40 291 -12 162 14 16 -44 39 23 164 17 42 -45 21 21 161 35 5 -44 25 19 165 0 6 -45 34 57
163 57 29 -44 11 27 10 15 7 40 289 -13 162 57 6 -43 50 41 164 59 39 -44 31 57 162 18 12 -43 36 51 165 41 43 -44 45 19
164 40 14 -43 22 31 10 15 12 40 288 -14 163 40 15 -43 2 6 165 42 0 -43 42 41 163 1 34 -42 48 28 166 23 47 -43 55 49
165 23 23 -42 33 41 10 15 17 39 287 -15 164 23 43 -42 13 35 166 24 47 -42 53 30 163 45 15 -42 0 11 167 6 19 -43 6 24
166 6 58 -41 44 55 10 15 21 39 286 -16 165 7 35 -41 25 9 167 8 3 -42 4 23 164 29 19 -41 11 57 167 49 22 -42 17 4
166 51 2 -40 56 11 10 15 26 39 284 -17 165 51 54 -40 36 45 167 51 52 -41 15 19 165 13 46 -40 23 46 168 33 0 -41 27 46
167 35 38 -40 7 28 10 15 31 38 283 -18 166 36 42 -39 48 22 168 36 16 -40 26 16 165 58 42 -39 35 37 169 17 16 -40 38 29
168 20 50 -39 18 45 10 15 35 38 282 -19 167 22 3 -38 59 59 169 21 19 -39 37 13 166 44 8 -38 47 26 170 2 13 -39 49 12
169 6 42 -38 30 1 10 15 40 37 281 -20 168 8 0 -38 11 35 170 7 5 -38 48 8 167 30 9 -37 59 15 170 47 55 -38 59 54
169 53 17 -37 41 13 10 15 45 37 280 -21 168 54 38 -37 23 7 170 53 38 -37 58 59 168 16 48 -37 11 0 171 34 27 -38 10 31
170 40 39 -36 52 21 10 15 49 36 278 -22 169 41 59 -36 34 35 171 41 1 -37 9 46 169 4 10 -36 22 41 172 21 51 -37 21 3
171 28 54 -36 3 21 10 15 54 36 277 -23 170 30 10 -35 45 56 172 29 21 -36 20 25 169 52 18 -35 34 15 173 10 15 -36 31 28
172 18 5 -35 14 13 10 15 59 35 276 -24 171 19 13 -34 57 9 173 18 41 -35 30 55 170 41 17 -34 45 42 173 59 42 -35 41 44
173 8 19 -34 24 55 10 16 3 35 275 -25 172 9 16 -34 8 12 174 9 9 -34 41 15 171 31 12 -33 56 59 174 50 19 -34 51 47
173 59 42 -33 35 24 10 16 8 34 274 -26 173 0 22 -33 19 4 175 0 50 -33 51 20 172 22 9 -33 8 4 175 42 13 -34 1 37
174 52 20 -32 45 38 10 16 13 33 273 -27 173 52 40 -32 29 41 175 53 52 -33 1 10 173 14 14 -32 18 56 176 35 32 -33 11 11
175 46 22 -31 55 34 10 16 17 33 272 -28 174 46 16 -31 40 1 176 48 23 -32 10 41 174 7 35 -31 29 31 177 30 25 -32 20 24
176 41 57 -31 5 10 10 16 22 32 271 -30 175 41 19 -30 50 2 177 44 33 -31 19 51 175 2 18 -30 39 48 178 27 1 -31 29 15
177 39 14 -30 14 22 10 16 26 31 270 -31 176 37 57 -29 59 40 178 42 33 -30 28 35 175 58 33 -29 49 43 179 25 33 -30 37 39
178 38 25 -29 23 7 10 16 31 30 269 -32 177 36 22 -29 8 53 179 42 36 -29 36 49 176 56 30 -28 59 14 -179 33 46 -29 45 33
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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